2018년 기상청 전지구예보모델 검증결과

【 2019. 2. 28. / 수치모델링센터 미래수치기술팀 】

※ 다음은 수치예측시스템의 검증(2018년)의 내용 일부를 발췌한 것입니다. 자세한 내용을 원하시는 경우 위의 보고서를 참고하시기바랍니다.

□ 전지구예보시스템의 검증 영역 (WMO CBS 공통)

검증 방법	검증 영역	위도	경도	비고
분석검증	북반구	20° N - 90° N	0° - 360°
	남반구	20° S - 90° N	0° - 360°
	적도	20° S - 20° N	0° - 360°
관측검증	아시아	25° N - 65° N	60° E - 145° E
	적도	20° N - 20° N	0° - 360°
	북미	25° N - 60° N	50° W - 145° W
	유럽/북아프리카	25° N - 70° N	10° W - 28° E
	호주/뉴질랜드	10° S - 55° S	90° E - 180° E
강수검증	76개 ASOS 검증			2009년부터 변경

□ 전지구예보시스템의 검증 변경 사항

검증 방법	이른 분석	2001년 1월 ~ 2005년 11월
	늦은 분석	2005년 12월 ~ 2006년 4월
	이른 분석	2006년 5월 ~ 현재
모델 분해능	T213L30 (~60km)	2001년 1월 ~ 2005년 11월
	T426L40 (~40km)	2005년 12월 ~ 2010년 5월 14일
	N320L50 (UM vn,6.6) (~40km)	2010년 5월 15일 ~ 2011년 5월 22일
	N512L70 (UM vn.7.7) (~25km)	2011년 5월 23일 ~ 2012년 5월
	N512L70 (UM vn.7.9) (~25km)	2012년 6월 ~ 2016년 6월 28일
	N768L70 (UM vn8.5) (~17km)	2016년 6월 29일 ~ 2018년 6월 6일
	N1280L70 (UM vn10.,8) (~10km)	2018년 6월 7일 ~ 현재
검증 격자 분해능 및 내삽방안	1.125° x 1.125° , bi-linear	2001년 1월 ~ 2005년 11월
	0.5625° x 0.5625° , bi-linear	2005년 12월 ~ 2006년 7월
	2.5° x 2.5° , bi-linear	2006년 8월 ~ 2014년12월
	1.5° x 1.5° , area weight	2015년 1월 ~ 현재

□ 전지구예보시스템의 검증 변수

변수명	고도
해면기압	해면*
지위고도	850hPa, 500hPa**, 250hPa, 100hPa***
기온	850hPa, 500hPa**, 250hPa, 100hPa
바람	925hPa, 850hPa, 700hPa, 500hPa**, 250hPa, 100hPa
상대습도	700hPa***
- 참고 * 분석검증에서만 수행 ** 열대지역에서는 제외 *** 권고 검증기상변수

□ 지역예보시스템의 분석 및 관측검증 영역

검증 방법	검증 영역	비고
분석검증	위 그림의 검증 영역 (바깥영역)
관측검증	위 그림의 검증 영역 (안쪽영역)
강수검증	한반도 76개 ASOS 지점	2009년부터 변경

□ 전지구예보시스템(GDAPS)

그림 1. 전지구예보시스템(GDAPS)의 2017년 대비 2018년 북반구 분석검증  평균제곱근오차와 변화율. (a)2017년대비 2018년 북반구 해면기압 (b)2017년대비 2018년 북반구 500hPa 지위고도

(a)	(b)
(c)	(d)

그림 2. 전지구예보시스템의 북반구 500hPa 지위고도 1일~10일 예측에 대한 분석검증 평균제곱근오차의 연평균 변화

그림 3 전지구예보시스템의 북반구 850hPa 기온 1일~10일 예측에 대한

이상상관의 연평균 변화

그림 4 전지구예보시스템(GDAPS) 북반구 500hPa 지위고도 분석검증 이상상관 연평균 변화

그림  5  전지구예보시스템(GDAPS) 5일 북반구 500hPa 고도 분석검증에 대한 forecast bust의 연별 및 월별 분포(2011년은 5월~12월 기간임)

그림 6  전지구예보시스템(GDAPS) 7일 북반구 500hPa 고도 분석검증에 대한 이상상관의 연별 분포(2011년은 5월~12월 기간임)

□ 지역예보시스템(RDAPS)

그림 7. 지역예보시스템(UM 12km L70)의 2017년 대비 2018년 북반구 분석검증 평균제곱근오차와 변화율. (a)500hPa 지위고도 (b) 850hPa 기온 (c) 300hPa 풍속

(a)

change rate(%)

change rate(%)

(b)

change rate(%)

(c)

□ 국지예보시스템(LDAPS)

그림 8. LDAPS의 2018년 지상변수의 예보시간별 평균오차와 평균제곱근오차(a) 기온, (b) 풍속, (c) 상대습도

(a)

(b)

(c)

□ 예보시스템(전지구, 지역, 국지)별 강수 예측성능 비교

그림 9. 예보시스템(GDAPS, RDAPS, LDAPS) 별 2018년 강수검증. (a)강수량 0.1mm/12hr에 대한 TS (b) 강수량 0.1mm/12hr에 대한 BIAS (c) 강수량 25mm/12hr에 대한 TS (d) 강수량 25mm/12hr에 대한 BIAS. 각 그림 내 파란 막대는 GDAPS를, 붉은 막대는 RDAPS를, 초록 막대는 LDAPS를 의미함

(a)

(c)

(b)

(d)

그림 10. 2005년 이후 지역예보시스템 강수예측(12~72h TS평균) 연 평균 변화

□ 전지구 앙상블예측시스템(EPSG)

그림 11 전지구 앙상블예측시스템(EPSG) 북반구 500hPa 지위고도와 850hPa 기온의 앙상블평균 평균제곱근오차/Spread와 CRPSS 2017년 대비 2018년 예측성능 변화

(a)

(c)

(b)

(d)

1 전지구예보시스템

1.1 2018년 전지구예보시스템 분석검증

※ WMO-CBS 표준검증 기준에 따라 S1 스코어는 해면기압(MSLP)에 대해서만 작성됨
(이전 년도 보고서에서 작성되었던 다른 등압면에서의 S1 스코어는 본 보고서부터 제외됨)

1.1.1 북반구 분석검증

표 1.1 GDAPS 북반구 해면기압(MSLP) Mean Error [hPa] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.08	-0.01	0.03	0.08	0.04	-0.06	-0.13	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.09	-0.04
48H	-0.13	-0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.04	-0.18	-0.27	-0.30	-0.21	-0.13	-0.12	-0.17	-0.12
72H	-0.13	-0.01	0.10	0.12	-0.05	-0.22	-0.31	-0.37	-0.27	-0.18	-0.11	-0.24	-0.14
96H	-0.14	0.08	0.17	0.17	-0.03	-0.21	-0.33	-0.44	-0.30	-0.21	-0.15	-0.31	-0.14
120H	-0.22	0.14	0.19	0.18	-0.02	-0.19	-0.38	-0.53	-0.34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.36	-0.17
144H	-0.29	0.14	0.20	0.22	-0.02	-0.19	-0.42	-0.55	-0.38	-0.39	-0.23	-0.39	-0.19
168H	-0.38	0.08	0.15	0.24	0.01	-0.17	-0.43	-0.52	-0.38	-0.47	-0.29	-0.50	-0.22
192H	-0.50	0.01	0.03	0.26	0.09	-0.16	-0.44	-0.47	-0.45	-0.55	-0.49	-0.66	-0.28
216H	-0.67	-0.13	-0.10	0.35	0.14	-0.17	-0.48	-0.39	-0.50	-0.67	-0.61	-0.70	-0.33
240H	-0.74	-0.25	-0.19	0.38	0.25	-0.18	-0.47	-0.36	-0.54	-0.71	-0.69	-0.64	-0.35
264H	-0.74	-0.29	-0.23	0.36	0.37	-0.16	-0.48	-0.30	-0.55	-0.72	-0.84	-0.67	-0.35
288H	-0.77	-0.27	-0.13	0.31	0.47	-0.24	-0.47	-0.22	-0.61	-0.76	-1.08	-0.64	-0.37

표 1.2 GDAPS 북반구 해면기압(MSLP) RMSE [hPa] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.02	0.97	0.87	0.84	0.82	0.78	0.73	0.71	0.69	0.74	0.86	0.96	0.83
48H	1.63	1.56	1.43	1.36	1.31	1.23	1.21	1.19	1.15	1.23	1.39	1.57	1.36
72H	2.48	2.38	2.21	2.01	1.92	1.76	1.70	1.74	1.75	1.85	2.11	2.34	2.02
96H	3.45	3.47	3.14	2.94	2.71	2.52	2.32	2.41	2.50	2.71	3.09	3.27	2.88
120H	4.52	4.82	4.36	3.93	3.70	3.46	3.04	3.21	3.48	3.72	4.37	4.30	3.91
144H	5.86	6.07	5.74	5.06	4.85	4.40	3.84	4.09	4.58	4.69	5.65	5.68	5.04
168H	7.13	7.35	6.92	6.01	6.05	5.22	4.60	4.84	5.73	5.61	6.95	7.00	6.12
192H	8.04	8.76	8.13	6.94	6.78	5.81	5.23	5.48	6.61	6.74	8.13	8.07	7.06
216H	9.09	9.72	8.96	7.80	7.25	6.25	5.71	5.93	7.26	7.78	8.83	9.01	7.80
240H	9.84	10.42	9.74	8.30	7.76	6.78	5.96	6.44	7.86	8.42	9.65	9.83	8.42
264H	10.57	11.02	10.39	8.70	8.52	7.19	6.21	6.82	8.51	8.94	10.46	10.47	8.98
288H	11.09	11.44	10.54	9.03	8.84	7.36	6.37	6.92	8.80	9.35	11.17	11.18	9.34

표 1.3 GDAPS 북반구 해면기압(MSLP) S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	18.05	19.33	19.11	19.18	20.96	20.56	19.55	18.85	17.76	16.96	17.71	18.00	18.84
48H	24.98	26.37	26.42	26.14	28.66	28.13	27.14	26.80	25.29	24.32	24.90	25.23	26.20
72H	32.26	33.87	34.13	33.43	36.35	35.90	34.40	34.98	33.24	31.54	32.71	32.42	33.77
96H	39.64	42.21	42.36	42.02	45.23	44.69	42.28	43.37	41.69	39.89	41.43	40.27	42.09
120H	46.98	50.89	51.91	50.25	54.60	53.84	49.48	51.94	50.76	48.88	51.15	47.80	50.71
144H	54.70	58.90	61.14	58.73	63.79	62.20	56.86	60.33	59.62	56.23	59.87	55.69	59.01
168H	61.69	66.39	68.54	65.57	71.47	68.36	63.68	66.71	67.52	63.22	67.33	63.31	66.15
192H	67.47	73.11	75.08	70.49	76.61	72.66	68.90	71.53	73.56	69.52	73.43	69.38	71.81
216H	71.77	77.46	78.94	75.51	79.49	75.49	72.35	74.83	77.81	74.96	77.10	73.36	75.76
240H	74.60	80.37	82.37	78.96	82.39	78.91	73.75	77.84	81.07	78.65	80.76	76.87	78.88
264H	77.52	81.62	84.97	81.11	86.27	82.09	75.64	79.79	83.95	81.76	83.31	79.91	81.50
288H	79.36	83.06	86.06	83.21	86.41	83.88	76.49	81.09	85.08	83.67	85.48	83.01	83.07

표 1.4 GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	0.03	0.05	0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.02
48H	-0.09	-0.11	-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	0.05	0.07	0.05	0.00	0.03	0.07	-0.01	-0.02
72H	-0.09	-0.13	-0.21	-0.20	-0.02	0.06	0.09	0.06	0.02	0.06	0.12	0.00	-0.01
96H	-0.08	-0.13	-0.23	-0.21	0.01	0.08	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.11	0.16	0.04	0.00
120H	-0.09	-0.12	-0.25	-0.21	0.04	0.10	0.11	0.09	0.06	0.16	0.20	0.05	0.01
144H	-0.09	-0.11	-0.26	-0.22	0.07	0.13	0.11	0.10	0.07	0.21	0.24	0.05	0.02
168H	-0.07	-0.12	-0.30	-0.23	0.09	0.14	0.11	0.11	0.10	0.25	0.28	0.06	0.03
192H	-0.06	-0.11	-0.33	-0.27	0.12	0.15	0.12	0.13	0.17	0.28	0.32	0.07	0.04
216H	-0.08	-0.11	-0.36	-0.29	0.12	0.17	0.15	0.13	0.22	0.32	0.40	0.10	0.06
240H	-0.05	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	0.10	0.19	0.16	0.14	0.25	0.38	0.46	0.12	0.08
264H	-0.04	0.02	-0.39	-0.31	0.09	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.27	0.44	0.52	0.15	0.11
288H	-0.04	0.03	-0.36	-0.32	0.06	0.19	0.17	0.13	0.32	0.47	0.58	0.21	0.12

표 1.5 GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.02	1.00	0.95	0.92	0.92	0.81	0.75	0.70	0.68	0.72	0.88	0.94	0.86
48H	1.42	1.38	1.33	1.30	1.31	1.17	1.10	1.02	1.00	1.05	1.26	1.34	1.22
72H	1.79	1.74	1.71	1.68	1.67	1.51	1.42	1.35	1.33	1.36	1.61	1.71	1.57
96H	2.25	2.19	2.17	2.09	2.10	1.90	1.81	1.72	1.70	1.75	2.02	2.11	1.98
120H	2.75	2.70	2.73	2.58	2.61	2.37	2.19	2.11	2.11	2.20	2.56	2.52	2.45
144H	3.30	3.30	3.36	3.14	3.21	2.85	2.62	2.52	2.61	2.64	3.08	3.06	2.97
168H	3.88	3.94	3.97	3.64	3.80	3.28	3.09	2.91	3.06	3.06	3.65	3.57	3.49
192H	4.50	4.36	4.54	4.17	4.31	3.63	3.49	3.25	3.43	3.48	4.18	4.08	3.95
216H	5.00	4.90	4.96	4.62	4.80	3.94	3.80	3.49	3.87	3.95	4.67	4.49	4.38
240H	5.26	5.28	5.39	4.97	5.13	4.23	4.00	3.80	4.24	4.37	5.01	4.81	4.71
264H	5.50	5.51	5.78	5.26	5.29	4.50	4.15	4.02	4.40	4.70	5.29	5.18	4.97
288H	5.69	5.81	6.03	5.43	5.45	4.68	4.24	4.12	4.51	4.92	5.50	5.47	5.15

표 1.6  GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
48H	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.96
72H	0.94	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.92	0.92	0.94	0.95	0.93	0.93	0.93
96H	0.90	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.87	0.90	0.92	0.89	0.88	0.89
120H	0.86	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.81	0.81	0.81	0.80	0.85	0.87	0.82	0.83	0.84
144H	0.79	0.81	0.77	0.76	0.71	0.73	0.73	0.72	0.78	0.81	0.74	0.75	0.76
168H	0.71	0.72	0.68	0.68	0.60	0.64	0.63	0.62	0.69	0.75	0.64	0.67	0.67
192H	0.61	0.66	0.59	0.58	0.49	0.56	0.53	0.54	0.61	0.67	0.53	0.57	0.58
216H	0.51	0.57	0.52	0.48	0.37	0.48	0.45	0.47	0.50	0.57	0.42	0.48	0.49
240H	0.45	0.50	0.43	0.40	0.29	0.41	0.39	0.38	0.40	0.47	0.34	0.39	0.41
264H	0.39	0.44	0.36	0.34	0.24	0.34	0.36	0.32	0.35	0.40	0.27	0.30	0.34
288H	0.35	0.38	0.31	0.29	0.20	0.29	0.33	0.29	0.31	0.34	0.23	0.23	0.30

표 1.7  GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.66	-0.52	-0.57	-0.19	0.33	0.13	-0.62	-0.68	-0.23	0.69	0.77	0.39	-0.09
48H	-1.04	-0.94	-0.69	-0.41	0.41	0.06	-1.22	-1.34	-0.50	0.86	1.25	0.37	-0.27
72H	-0.96	-0.81	-0.50	0.03	1.17	0.59	-1.07	-1.33	-0.19	1.37	1.97	0.35	0.05
96H	-0.74	0.09	-0.11	0.71	2.13	1.45	-0.89	-1.40	0.25	1.96	2.48	0.36	0.52
120H	-0.90	0.86	-0.15	0.73	2.84	2.24	-1.16	-1.72	0.38	2.12	2.62	0.51	0.70
144H	-0.87	1.38	-0.20	1.01	3.23	2.86	-1.45	-1.55	0.56	2.44	3.04	0.73	0.93
168H	-0.95	1.14	-0.72	0.68	3.91	3.48	-1.28	-1.10	1.01	2.71	3.31	0.65	1.07
192H	-1.31	0.61	-1.52	0.31	4.80	4.05	-1.27	-0.79	1.49	2.70	2.62	-0.09	0.97
216H	-2.78	-0.60	-2.29	0.64	4.76	4.45	-1.71	-0.19	1.59	2.81	2.74	-0.15	0.77
240H	-3.11	-1.06	-3.00	0.73	4.72	4.45	-1.91	0.09	1.65	3.57	3.45	0.28	0.82
264H	-3.30	-0.67	-2.89	0.44	5.07	4.87	-2.00	0.41	1.73	4.76	3.82	0.18	1.04
288H	-3.72	-0.55	-1.81	-0.03	5.05	4.25	-2.00	0.61	1.76	5.25	3.48	1.10	1.12

표 1.8 GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	7.54	7.54	6.75	6.54	6.48	6.07	5.77	5.50	5.52	5.87	6.41	7.03	6.42
48H	14.12	13.96	13.09	12.53	12.33	11.17	10.80	10.03	10.13	11.02	12.27	13.22	12.06
72H	23.16	23.00	21.70	20.69	19.93	18.41	17.31	16.22	16.83	17.64	20.67	21.27	19.74
96H	34.53	34.91	31.89	31.52	30.00	27.94	25.46	24.10	25.78	27.11	31.68	31.10	29.67
120H	46.95	48.59	44.48	43.17	42.17	39.32	34.60	33.55	36.43	38.36	44.74	41.69	41.17
144H	61.49	62.63	59.81	55.26	56.05	50.62	44.37	43.59	48.80	49.66	57.73	55.69	53.81
168H	76.54	77.34	74.07	67.87	70.23	60.56	54.65	53.44	61.84	60.07	72.06	69.95	66.55
192H	89.19	89.78	89.57	79.77	82.25	69.10	62.94	61.79	73.05	72.53	86.45	83.01	78.29
216H	100.97	102.02	100.66	91.25	91.87	75.24	69.74	67.51	82.61	85.14	97.19	92.98	88.10
240H	109.66	112.78	110.09	98.87	99.71	82.39	73.71	74.02	90.99	93.82	106.13	102.63	96.23
264H	117.33	120.29	118.52	104.73	107.42	88.71	76.89	79.19	97.94	101.79	114.02	110.17	103.08
288H	122.92	127.37	123.60	110.39	112.38	91.94	79.61	81.66	102.38	107.80	121.44	117.74	108.27

표 1.9 GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
48H	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
72H	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
96H	0.95	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.93	0.95	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95
120H	0.91	0.93	0.92	0.90	0.89	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.90	0.92	0.90	0.91	0.90
144H	0.85	0.88	0.86	0.83	0.80	0.76	0.79	0.76	0.83	0.87	0.84	0.84	0.83
168H	0.76	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.68	0.65	0.68	0.64	0.73	0.81	0.75	0.74	0.73
192H	0.68	0.75	0.69	0.66	0.56	0.55	0.58	0.52	0.62	0.72	0.64	0.64	0.63
216H	0.58	0.68	0.61	0.54	0.46	0.47	0.48	0.43	0.51	0.62	0.55	0.55	0.54
240H	0.51	0.60	0.53	0.46	0.36	0.36	0.42	0.34	0.41	0.53	0.46	0.46	0.45
264H	0.44	0.54	0.45	0.40	0.26	0.27	0.37	0.26	0.32	0.45	0.39	0.37	0.38
288H	0.38	0.48	0.41	0.34	0.19	0.22	0.34	0.22	0.26	0.37	0.32	0.30	0.32

표 1.10 GDAPS 북반구 250hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.11	-0.13	-0.08	-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.12	-0.13	-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.16	-0.11
48H	-0.14	-0.25	-0.12	-0.08	-0.15	-0.13	-0.14	-0.18	-0.15	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-0.15
72H	-0.14	-0.34	-0.16	-0.08	-0.20	-0.13	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-0.18	-0.20	-0.21	-0.18
96H	-0.21	-0.43	-0.20	-0.14	-0.24	-0.13	-0.11	-0.21	-0.24	-0.21	-0.24	-0.28	-0.22
120H	-0.32	-0.54	-0.27	-0.24	-0.30	-0.17	-0.11	-0.21	-0.28	-0.27	-0.35	-0.33	-0.28
144H	-0.46	-0.64	-0.34	-0.32	-0.40	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-0.18	-0.46	-0.47	-0.32	-0.35
168H	-0.45	-0.73	-0.34	-0.36	-0.45	-0.19	-0.06	-0.31	-0.16	-0.48	-0.51	-0.32	-0.36
192H	-0.49	-0.84	-0.26	-0.35	-0.55	-0.14	-0.08	-0.33	-0.23	-0.46	-0.53	-0.42	-0.39
216H	-0.51	-1.03	-0.22	-0.44	-0.53	-0.14	-0.13	-0.34	-0.30	-0.57	-0.54	-0.54	-0.44
240H	-0.57	-1.29	-0.17	-0.49	-0.53	-0.12	-0.16	-0.35	-0.37	-0.71	-0.60	-0.61	-0.50
264H	-0.58	-1.43	-0.17	-0.46	-0.55	-0.13	-0.13	-0.43	-0.42	-0.77	-0.62	-0.54	-0.52
288H	-0.59	-1.52	-0.12	-0.52	-0.48	-0.06	-0.15	-0.44	-0.57	-0.81	-0.52	-0.61	-0.53

표 1.11 GDAPS 북반구 250hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	3.62	3.65	3.65	3.60	3.80	3.57	3.57	3.48	3.35	3.44	3.46	3.45	3.55
48H	5.54	5.55	5.50	5.44	5.89	5.76	5.74	5.62	5.29	5.44	5.47	5.36	5.55
72H	7.72	7.62	7.46	7.54	8.05	8.10	7.97	7.93	7.44	7.57	7.75	7.36	7.71
96H	10.19	10.10	9.61	9.91	10.41	10.71	10.30	10.30	9.95	10.07	10.45	9.58	10.13
120H	12.90	12.83	12.19	12.32	13.33	13.38	12.50	12.96	12.51	12.56	13.34	11.93	12.73
144H	15.66	15.43	15.04	15.01	16.34	15.81	14.51	15.19	15.18	15.19	16.04	14.71	15.34
168H	18.47	17.94	17.72	17.19	18.89	17.73	16.37	17.25	17.82	17.32	18.70	17.31	17.72
192H	21.20	20.07	20.24	19.30	21.02	19.40	17.78	18.70	19.85	19.72	21.37	19.82	19.87
216H	23.57	22.16	22.03	21.53	22.83	20.41	18.89	19.71	21.79	22.11	23.50	21.92	21.70
240H	25.07	24.14	23.88	23.01	24.12	21.62	19.60	20.68	23.03	24.15	25.02	23.52	23.15
264H	26.26	25.37	25.10	24.22	25.12	22.85	20.18	21.47	24.02	25.64	26.19	25.09	24.29
288H	27.37	26.31	26.28	25.17	25.67	23.54	20.49	21.80	24.67	26.62	26.94	26.23	25.09

1.2.2 적도지역 분석검증

표 1.12 GDAPS 적도지역 해면기압(MSLP) Mean Error [hPa] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.00	-0.04	-0.06	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	-0.03
48H	-0.01	-0.07	-0.11	-0.13	-0.07	0.01	0.06	0.05	-0.07	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	-0.04
72H	-0.03	-0.12	-0.17	-0.19	-0.10	0.00	0.09	0.08	-0.04	-0.12	-0.13	0.00	-0.06
96H	-0.05	-0.17	-0.23	-0.25	-0.11	-0.02	0.10	0.10	0.01	-0.12	-0.17	-0.03	-0.07
120H	-0.09	-0.22	-0.28	-0.32	-0.17	-0.02	0.09	0.12	0.01	-0.12	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11
144H	-0.13	-0.25	-0.33	-0.39	-0.20	-0.05	0.09	0.11	0.04	-0.07	-0.27	-0.12	-0.13
168H	-0.16	-0.27	-0.36	-0.48	-0.22	-0.10	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.00	-0.30	-0.12	-0.15
192H	-0.18	-0.37	-0.35	-0.55	-0.31	-0.16	0.03	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	-0.30	-0.13	-0.19
216H	-0.17	-0.49	-0.29	-0.61	-0.40	-0.23	-0.04	-0.08	0.10	0.01	-0.36	-0.22	-0.23
240H	-0.18	-0.55	-0.18	-0.69	-0.43	-0.23	-0.06	-0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.41	-0.33	-0.26
264H	-0.21	-0.59	-0.10	-0.73	-0.41	-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	0.02	0.14	-0.37	-0.38	-0.26
288H	-0.25	-0.62	-0.12	-0.73	-0.38	-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	0.04	0.23	-0.27	-0.46	-0.25

표 1.13 GDAPS 적도지역 해면기압(MSLP) RMSE [hPa] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.56	0.57	0.56	0.52	0.50	0.48	0.51	0.51	0.56	0.55	0.50	0.52	0.53
48H	0.72	0.74	0.77	0.67	0.64	0.63	0.70	0.71	0.77	0.78	0.72	0.75	0.72
72H	0.82	0.86	0.89	0.76	0.74	0.73	0.79	0.82	0.92	0.93	0.80	0.85	0.83
96H	0.92	0.99	0.98	0.86	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.91	1.01	1.06	0.88	0.92	0.92
120H	1.02	1.08	1.07	0.95	0.97	0.93	0.97	1.02	1.12	1.18	0.97	0.98	1.02
144H	1.16	1.21	1.24	1.13	1.09	1.04	1.06	1.17	1.25	1.31	1.13	1.13	1.16
168H	1.26	1.37	1.41	1.29	1.21	1.15	1.13	1.28	1.37	1.44	1.24	1.22	1.28
192H	1.40	1.52	1.59	1.46	1.36	1.29	1.24	1.38	1.51	1.61	1.36	1.35	1.42
216H	1.53	1.70	1.67	1.60	1.53	1.40	1.38	1.46	1.66	1.69	1.51	1.42	1.55
240H	1.58	1.79	1.78	1.73	1.65	1.49	1.49	1.57	1.83	1.84	1.67	1.53	1.66
264H	1.70	1.82	1.93	1.83	1.74	1.53	1.61	1.62	1.88	1.91	1.75	1.65	1.75
288H	1.78	1.92	1.98	1.87	1.81	1.57	1.68	1.68	1.96	2.01	1.78	1.78	1.82

표 1.14 GDAPS 적도지역 해면기압(MSLP) S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	29.21	32.12	32.81	32.99	30.93	26.32	25.11	25.99	28.12	30.58	28.58	26.95	29.14
48H	34.51	37.62	38.70	38.38	35.87	31.32	30.17	31.50	34.41	37.31	34.60	32.75	34.76
72H	37.60	40.56	41.93	41.04	38.47	34.00	32.95	34.69	38.49	41.29	38.05	35.95	37.92
96H	39.81	42.82	44.17	43.07	40.75	36.23	34.75	37.29	41.43	44.58	40.50	38.00	40.28
120H	42.01	44.92	45.95	44.79	42.45	38.24	36.93	39.29	43.78	47.04	42.62	39.98	42.33
144H	44.16	46.82	48.10	47.06	44.16	40.18	38.61	41.59	46.62	49.64	44.71	42.26	44.49
168H	46.33	48.89	50.45	49.32	46.05	41.84	40.47	43.75	49.21	51.97	46.83	44.31	46.62
192H	48.21	50.76	53.21	51.06	48.13	43.26	42.50	45.63	51.54	54.46	49.19	46.24	48.68
216H	50.23	52.65	55.31	52.72	49.80	44.74	44.30	47.07	53.78	56.15	51.61	47.72	50.51
240H	51.67	54.82	57.28	54.17	51.65	46.57	45.76	48.43	55.78	57.89	54.08	49.40	52.29
264H	52.76	55.99	58.54	55.55	53.23	47.45	47.23	49.37	56.89	59.29	55.35	50.65	53.52
288H	53.87	57.42	59.46	56.48	54.54	48.40	48.34	50.15	57.80	60.65	56.38	52.19	54.64

표 1.15 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.01	0.03	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.06	0.05
48H	-0.02	0.02	0.12	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.00	0.05	0.13	0.14	0.13	0.05	0.07
72H	-0.06	0.00	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.14	0.16	0.14	0.02	0.07
96H	-0.08	-0.02	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.03	-0.04	0.03	0.13	0.18	0.14	-0.01	0.06
120H	-0.10	-0.03	0.13	0.16	0.17	0.03	-0.05	0.01	0.13	0.18	0.12	-0.02	0.06
144H	-0.12	-0.06	0.13	0.18	0.19	0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.09	0.17	0.12	-0.04	0.05
168H	-0.15	-0.09	0.15	0.20	0.21	0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.06	0.14	0.09	-0.06	0.04
192H	-0.17	-0.11	0.15	0.22	0.22	0.07	-0.03	0.02	0.04	0.14	0.11	-0.09	0.04
216H	-0.19	-0.10	0.14	0.22	0.23	0.08	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.15	0.12	-0.10	0.04
240H	-0.20	-0.08	0.13	0.21	0.26	0.09	0.00	0.05	-0.03	0.17	0.13	-0.09	0.05
264H	-0.18	-0.06	0.11	0.19	0.27	0.12	0.01	0.05	-0.07	0.17	0.16	-0.08	0.05
288H	-0.15	-0.07	0.08	0.18	0.26	0.14	0.05	0.03	-0.09	0.12	0.17	-0.09	0.05

표 1.16 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.66	0.68	0.62	0.60	0.64	0.57	0.58	0.60	0.61	0.61	0.57	0.58	0.61
48H	0.88	0.88	0.82	0.78	0.84	0.77	0.78	0.82	0.87	0.84	0.79	0.80	0.82
72H	1.02	1.00	0.94	0.88	0.96	0.89	0.91	0.95	1.00	0.99	0.92	0.94	0.95
96H	1.12	1.09	1.03	0.96	1.04	1.00	1.02	1.06	1.11	1.10	1.02	1.04	1.05
120H	1.23	1.18	1.12	1.05	1.12	1.11	1.11	1.15	1.21	1.20	1.09	1.13	1.14
144H	1.33	1.28	1.21	1.14	1.24	1.21	1.21	1.25	1.30	1.32	1.18	1.23	1.24
168H	1.41	1.38	1.32	1.23	1.32	1.31	1.32	1.38	1.43	1.45	1.29	1.34	1.35
192H	1.50	1.46	1.42	1.32	1.41	1.40	1.41	1.49	1.53	1.57	1.39	1.44	1.44
216H	1.59	1.57	1.52	1.40	1.51	1.51	1.47	1.55	1.64	1.67	1.51	1.53	1.54
240H	1.68	1.66	1.61	1.48	1.61	1.57	1.53	1.64	1.74	1.73	1.63	1.60	1.62
264H	1.74	1.75	1.70	1.53	1.68	1.62	1.61	1.71	1.78	1.80	1.67	1.69	1.69
288H	1.77	1.83	1.79	1.57	1.74	1.69	1.69	1.75	1.85	1.90	1.73	1.74	1.75

표 1.17 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.91	0.92	0.92	0.90	0.90	0.92	0.92	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.93	0.94	0.92
48H	0.85	0.88	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.84	0.85	0.86	0.88	0.85
72H	0.80	0.84	0.82	0.80	0.78	0.81	0.79	0.82	0.78	0.79	0.82	0.84	0.81
96H	0.76	0.81	0.79	0.76	0.74	0.77	0.75	0.77	0.73	0.75	0.78	0.81	0.77
120H	0.72	0.78	0.75	0.72	0.71	0.72	0.70	0.73	0.69	0.71	0.75	0.77	0.73
144H	0.69	0.74	0.71	0.67	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.69	0.64	0.64	0.71	0.73	0.68
168H	0.65	0.70	0.67	0.62	0.60	0.61	0.58	0.62	0.57	0.58	0.65	0.68	0.63
192H	0.61	0.67	0.62	0.57	0.55	0.55	0.52	0.57	0.50	0.51	0.60	0.63	0.58
216H	0.57	0.62	0.57	0.52	0.49	0.49	0.48	0.54	0.42	0.47	0.54	0.59	0.52
240H	0.53	0.57	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.45	0.44	0.49	0.37	0.43	0.47	0.55	0.47
264H	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.43	0.38	0.42	0.38	0.44	0.34	0.39	0.44	0.49	0.43
288H	0.45	0.49	0.40	0.40	0.34	0.37	0.33	0.40	0.31	0.33	0.39	0.45	0.39

표 1.18 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.63	-0.64	-0.47	-0.57	-0.43	-0.81	-0.89	-0.68	-0.46	-0.11	-0.32	-0.55	-0.55
48H	-1.20	-1.12	-0.74	-0.76	-0.30	-1.00	-1.18	-0.85	-0.59	0.06	-0.58	-1.05	-0.78
72H	-1.51	-1.40	-1.07	-0.99	-0.12	-1.12	-1.32	-0.85	-0.51	0.22	-0.81	-1.35	-0.90
96H	-1.84	-1.95	-1.47	-1.16	0.08	-1.13	-1.47	-0.84	-0.45	0.23	-1.16	-1.81	-1.08
120H	-2.46	-2.65	-1.97	-1.49	-0.19	-1.01	-1.58	-0.87	-0.69	-0.07	-1.92	-2.49	-1.45
144H	-3.01	-3.23	-2.72	-1.95	-0.41	-0.79	-1.58	-0.98	-0.85	-0.09	-2.76	-3.26	-1.80
168H	-3.64	-3.96	-3.23	-2.83	-0.60	-0.74	-1.76	-1.38	-1.15	-0.26	-3.50	-3.79	-2.24
192H	-4.24	-5.27	-3.65	-3.70	-1.43	-0.96	-2.21	-1.94	-1.54	-0.83	-3.85	-4.49	-2.84
216H	-4.64	-6.80	-3.66	-4.71	-2.18	-1.30	-2.84	-2.53	-1.89	-1.02	-4.68	-5.74	-3.50
240H	-4.92	-7.66	-3.57	-5.80	-2.38	-0.78	-3.21	-3.26	-2.49	-0.67	-5.28	-7.07	-3.92
264H	-5.20	-8.37	-3.73	-6.61	-2.44	-0.24	-3.66	-3.85	-3.15	-0.59	-5.27	-7.82	-4.24
288H	-5.58	-9.19	-4.49	-7.04	-2.33	0.17	-3.68	-4.39	-3.03	-0.58	-4.75	-8.75	-4.47

표 1.19 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	3.44	3.38	3.39	3.12	3.22	3.09	3.29	3.36	3.37	3.39	3.08	2.97	3.26
48H	4.57	4.77	4.51	3.86	3.98	4.17	4.80	4.76	4.61	4.82	4.38	4.63	4.49
72H	5.77	5.83	5.37	4.72	4.92	5.04	5.81	5.61	5.60	5.91	5.05	5.63	5.44
96H	6.58	7.34	6.22	5.76	5.84	5.94	6.76	6.32	6.50	6.92	5.85	6.60	6.39
120H	7.86	8.53	7.44	6.88	7.00	6.97	7.94	7.18	7.63	7.86	6.78	7.57	7.47
144H	9.25	10.08	9.10	8.22	8.22	8.33	9.09	8.45	8.82	9.01	8.20	9.22	8.83
168H	10.51	11.78	10.56	9.50	9.38	9.63	10.02	9.53	10.09	10.22	9.31	10.54	10.09
192H	11.88	13.62	12.24	11.22	10.62	10.77	11.24	10.61	11.15	11.58	10.37	11.95	11.44
216H	13.41	15.48	13.54	12.77	12.02	11.91	12.58	11.86	12.21	12.35	12.09	13.21	12.79
240H	14.60	16.91	14.45	14.11	13.49	12.74	13.78	13.03	13.66	13.46	13.77	14.67	14.05
264H	15.69	17.83	15.97	15.45	14.47	13.62	14.94	14.20	14.49	14.47	14.94	15.78	15.15
288H	16.53	18.92	17.10	16.07	14.98	14.42	15.26	15.05	15.31	15.52	15.52	16.98	15.97

표 1.20 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.97	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.97
48H	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.94	0.93	0.94	0.94	0.94
72H	0.93	0.94	0.95	0.92	0.90	0.92	0.90	0.89	0.90	0.89	0.92	0.91	0.92
96H	0.91	0.91	0.93	0.89	0.87	0.89	0.87	0.86	0.87	0.85	0.90	0.88	0.89
120H	0.87	0.88	0.89	0.84	0.81	0.85	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.80	0.87	0.85	0.84
144H	0.83	0.83	0.84	0.78	0.74	0.79	0.76	0.75	0.76	0.74	0.82	0.79	0.79
168H	0.78	0.78	0.79	0.72	0.67	0.73	0.71	0.69	0.69	0.67	0.77	0.74	0.73
192H	0.72	0.72	0.72	0.63	0.60	0.67	0.63	0.64	0.64	0.60	0.72	0.67	0.66
216H	0.64	0.66	0.67	0.56	0.50	0.61	0.55	0.57	0.57	0.54	0.64	0.61	0.59
240H	0.57	0.59	0.63	0.51	0.38	0.55	0.46	0.50	0.48	0.47	0.55	0.54	0.52
264H	0.52	0.56	0.55	0.43	0.31	0.47	0.39	0.42	0.43	0.42	0.46	0.51	0.46
288H	0.47	0.52	0.49	0.38	0.26	0.40	0.36	0.34	0.38	0.35	0.40	0.46	0.40

표 1.21 GDAPS 적도지역 250hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	3.73	3.72	3.69	3.56	3.41	3.28	3.29	3.27	3.01	3.08	3.36	3.43	3.40
48H	5.41	5.33	5.29	5.16	4.85	4.79	4.93	4.82	4.62	4.77	5.04	5.02	5.00
72H	6.62	6.54	6.45	6.40	5.92	5.87	6.17	5.96	5.76	5.95	6.26	6.21	6.18
96H	7.66	7.62	7.37	7.32	6.97	6.75	7.02	6.92	6.71	6.87	7.23	7.18	7.14
120H	8.56	8.62	8.23	8.18	7.89	7.60	7.82	7.70	7.50	7.54	8.19	7.97	7.98
144H	9.34	9.53	9.03	9.18	8.75	8.46	8.65	8.30	8.20	8.25	9.01	8.78	8.79
168H	10.06	10.40	9.92	10.01	9.54	9.28	9.39	9.02	8.94	9.05	9.84	9.59	9.59
192H	10.79	11.42	10.85	10.83	10.36	9.99	10.11	9.58	9.69	9.87	10.53	10.36	10.36
216H	11.54	12.31	11.53	11.58	10.95	10.79	10.76	10.28	10.17	10.63	11.29	11.16	11.08
240H	12.11	12.94	12.24	12.15	11.55	11.50	11.52	10.89	10.63	11.17	12.02	11.88	11.72
264H	12.68	13.67	12.87	12.76	12.38	12.21	12.18	11.37	11.16	11.56	12.65	12.57	12.34
288H	13.05	14.26	13.58	13.15	13.15	12.71	12.71	11.96	11.66	12.15	13.22	13.18	12.90

표 1.22 GDAPS 적도지역 250hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.11	-0.02	-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	-0.18	-0.08	-0.05
48H	-0.08	0.04	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.17	0.02	-0.02
72H	0.01	0.15	-0.08	0.09	0.06	0.14	0.06	0.14	0.11	0.07	-0.06	0.11	0.06
96H	0.07	0.24	-0.08	0.15	0.14	0.28	0.23	0.26	0.24	0.16	0.00	0.17	0.16
120H	0.17	0.27	0.04	0.25	0.27	0.36	0.36	0.34	0.29	0.16	0.04	0.25	0.23
144H	0.22	0.39	0.13	0.40	0.34	0.41	0.42	0.38	0.36	0.23	0.07	0.28	0.30
168H	0.25	0.51	0.25	0.50	0.42	0.36	0.39	0.40	0.44	0.34	0.11	0.30	0.36
192H	0.19	0.58	0.35	0.67	0.45	0.33	0.47	0.49	0.53	0.40	0.13	0.33	0.41
216H	0.03	0.65	0.40	0.84	0.50	0.35	0.48	0.52	0.58	0.35	0.15	0.34	0.43
240H	-0.09	0.90	0.41	0.81	0.63	0.40	0.57	0.55	0.63	0.37	0.11	0.37	0.47
264H	-0.12	0.95	0.45	0.75	0.73	0.43	0.58	0.62	0.72	0.40	0.10	0.47	0.51
288H	-0.09	0.89	0.44	0.70	0.77	0.47	0.50	0.79	0.87	0.40	0.07	0.50	0.53

1.1.3 남반구 분석검증

표 1.23 GDAPS 남반구 해면기압(MSLP) Mean Error [hPa] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.05	0.06	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.01	0.08
48H	0.09	0.11	0.08	0.12	0.13	0.16	0.17	0.20	0.27	0.18	0.10	0.04	0.14
72H	0.08	0.09	0.08	0.12	0.15	0.19	0.14	0.20	0.27	0.20	0.10	0.08	0.14
96H	0.11	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.11	0.18	0.12	0.22	0.24	0.22	0.14	0.14	0.14
120H	0.20	0.02	0.07	0.15	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.27	0.27	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.18
144H	0.30	0.03	0.10	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.19	0.29	0.27	0.29	0.28	0.24	0.20
168H	0.43	0.12	0.16	0.25	0.11	0.14	0.21	0.31	0.23	0.28	0.34	0.32	0.24
192H	0.56	0.29	0.26	0.29	0.10	0.20	0.24	0.32	0.21	0.37	0.52	0.47	0.32
216H	0.74	0.55	0.34	0.27	0.10	0.30	0.38	0.29	0.23	0.46	0.69	0.61	0.41
240H	0.76	0.72	0.33	0.30	0.04	0.29	0.42	0.30	0.31	0.43	0.81	0.69	0.45
264H	0.79	0.76	0.30	0.36	-0.13	0.26	0.46	0.24	0.38	0.36	0.92	0.74	0.45
288H	0.87	0.80	0.23	0.37	-0.23	0.33	0.44	0.13	0.41	0.28	1.05	0.81	0.46

표 1.24 GDAPS 남반구 해면기압(MSLP) RMSE [hPa] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.74	0.76	0.79	0.87	0.93	0.96	1.03	0.98	1.01	0.87	0.80	0.76	0.87
48H	1.32	1.34	1.43	1.51	1.68	1.75	1.84	1.78	1.77	1.54	1.41	1.35	1.56
72H	2.03	2.13	2.17	2.37	2.69	2.77	2.91	2.84	2.72	2.43	2.15	2.06	2.44
96H	2.94	3.20	3.12	3.49	4.09	3.93	4.15	4.10	4.02	3.56	3.09	3.01	3.56
120H	3.95	4.30	4.41	4.86	5.60	5.52	5.60	5.60	5.46	4.70	4.26	4.05	4.86
144H	4.97	5.50	5.79	6.46	7.04	7.11	7.21	7.12	6.84	5.90	5.44	5.08	6.20
168H	5.89	6.85	6.82	7.88	8.25	8.56	8.54	8.54	8.24	7.19	6.67	6.14	7.46
192H	6.94	8.01	7.81	9.12	8.99	10.04	10.09	9.88	9.58	8.34	7.95	7.18	8.66
216H	7.61	8.97	8.73	10.05	10.06	11.16	11.24	10.99	10.76	9.04	8.85	8.03	9.62
240H	7.99	9.62	9.70	10.92	11.07	11.94	11.88	11.91	11.69	10.01	9.41	8.58	10.39
264H	8.28	9.99	10.14	11.34	11.81	12.41	12.47	12.29	12.37	10.83	9.99	9.05	10.91
288H	8.75	10.34	10.55	11.59	12.05	12.93	12.96	12.48	12.92	11.77	10.73	9.61	11.39

표 1.25 GDAPS 남반구 해면기압(MSLP) S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	15.28	15.14	15.03	15.90	16.27	16.11	15.74	15.48	15.19	14.93	14.39	14.87	15.36
48H	23.05	22.62	22.67	23.99	25.18	25.09	24.37	24.25	23.13	22.82	21.75	22.81	23.48
72H	30.64	30.34	29.66	32.01	34.23	33.75	32.97	32.90	31.48	30.66	28.77	30.55	31.50
96H	38.77	39.11	37.49	40.98	44.59	42.28	41.70	41.31	40.64	39.18	36.28	38.82	40.10
120H	46.87	47.01	46.41	49.76	53.61	51.32	50.50	50.30	48.80	47.23	44.16	46.82	48.57
144H	53.91	55.38	54.62	58.92	60.89	59.69	58.77	58.09	56.01	54.26	51.33	54.25	56.34
168H	59.62	63.02	61.31	66.28	66.74	66.33	64.72	65.06	62.70	60.21	58.16	60.80	62.91
192H	65.05	68.95	66.31	71.59	70.28	72.14	71.19	70.70	68.72	65.06	64.31	65.49	68.32
216H	68.15	72.58	70.74	75.92	74.44	75.36	75.39	74.72	72.47	68.56	68.83	69.62	72.23
240H	70.14	75.76	74.64	79.98	77.91	78.38	77.93	78.16	75.56	72.23	71.62	72.33	75.39
264H	71.49	77.39	76.58	81.13	80.22	80.05	79.43	79.59	78.09	74.26	74.36	75.23	77.32
288H	73.08	77.96	77.24	81.76	81.20	81.71	81.30	79.97	79.51	76.68	76.81	76.76	78.67

표 1.26 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.10	-0.15	-0.24	-0.24	-0.21	-0.13	-0.02	0.04	0.04	-0.08
48H	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.11	-0.19	-0.32	-0.31	-0.30	-0.18	-0.03	0.04	0.04	-0.12
72H	-0.04	-0.06	0.05	-0.10	-0.19	-0.35	-0.33	-0.35	-0.20	-0.03	0.05	0.02	-0.13
96H	-0.07	-0.09	0.08	-0.06	-0.16	-0.34	-0.33	-0.36	-0.19	-0.03	0.05	0.00	-0.13
120H	-0.10	-0.09	0.11	-0.03	-0.13	-0.34	-0.34	-0.33	-0.22	-0.02	0.06	0.00	-0.12
144H	-0.11	-0.08	0.13	0.00	-0.09	-0.28	-0.31	-0.29	-0.20	-0.01	0.05	0.00	-0.10
168H	-0.12	-0.07	0.14	0.02	-0.04	-0.21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.18	-0.01	0.07	-0.03	-0.07
192H	-0.13	-0.09	0.12	0.04	0.01	-0.18	-0.24	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	0.06	-0.05	-0.06
216H	-0.15	-0.10	0.11	0.09	0.06	-0.17	-0.16	-0.14	-0.07	-0.03	0.06	-0.06	-0.04
240H	-0.17	-0.11	0.11	0.15	0.09	-0.11	-0.15	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.04	-0.07	-0.03
264H	-0.16	-0.13	0.12	0.15	0.14	-0.07	-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.10	-0.03
288H	-0.15	-0.19	0.13	0.16	0.19	-0.04	-0.11	-0.10	0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.15	-0.02

표 1.27 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.76	0.82	0.86	0.92	0.95	0.92	0.95	0.92	0.88	0.79	0.74	0.67	0.85
48H	1.11	1.19	1.24	1.31	1.40	1.36	1.39	1.40	1.33	1.22	1.11	1.03	1.26
72H	1.43	1.54	1.59	1.67	1.83	1.78	1.82	1.85	1.78	1.61	1.45	1.36	1.64
96H	1.78	1.92	1.97	2.08	2.32	2.20	2.31	2.39	2.29	2.08	1.83	1.74	2.08
120H	2.19	2.37	2.45	2.59	2.85	2.76	2.83	2.92	2.86	2.58	2.24	2.16	2.57
144H	2.62	2.88	2.97	3.15	3.36	3.30	3.40	3.50	3.42	3.07	2.68	2.61	3.08
168H	2.99	3.39	3.41	3.69	3.79	3.78	3.85	4.03	3.88	3.52	3.08	2.97	3.53
192H	3.33	3.83	3.82	4.16	4.16	4.14	4.24	4.49	4.34	3.96	3.53	3.35	3.95
216H	3.58	4.21	4.17	4.55	4.47	4.45	4.56	4.87	4.72	4.36	3.95	3.75	4.30
240H	3.82	4.55	4.48	4.77	4.77	4.73	4.85	5.14	5.15	4.69	4.28	4.07	4.61
264H	4.03	4.74	4.74	4.96	4.99	4.89	5.17	5.31	5.32	4.95	4.44	4.37	4.83
288H	4.18	4.82	4.91	5.15	5.11	5.11	5.37	5.39	5.37	5.10	4.59	4.56	4.97

표 1.28 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
48H	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.96	0.95	0.96	0.95
72H	0.92	0.91	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.90	0.91	0.91	0.91	0.92	0.92	0.93	0.91
96H	0.87	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.83	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.85	0.87	0.88	0.88	0.86
120H	0.80	0.79	0.80	0.79	0.75	0.76	0.78	0.76	0.77	0.81	0.81	0.82	0.79
144H	0.72	0.70	0.70	0.69	0.65	0.66	0.68	0.66	0.68	0.73	0.73	0.73	0.69
168H	0.64	0.58	0.61	0.58	0.56	0.55	0.59	0.55	0.58	0.64	0.65	0.66	0.60
192H	0.56	0.45	0.51	0.47	0.47	0.45	0.50	0.45	0.48	0.55	0.54	0.56	0.50
216H	0.50	0.36	0.42	0.36	0.40	0.38	0.41	0.36	0.39	0.45	0.44	0.44	0.41
240H	0.43	0.25	0.34	0.31	0.31	0.30	0.33	0.28	0.29	0.37	0.35	0.34	0.33
264H	0.36	0.19	0.26	0.25	0.24	0.27	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.30	0.29	0.25	0.26
288H	0.30	0.17	0.20	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.19	0.22	0.22	0.26	0.23	0.18	0.21

표 1.29 GDAPS 남반구 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.50	0.21	0.08	-0.21	-0.32	-0.43	-0.56	-0.08	0.48	0.66	0.88	0.86	0.17
48H	1.09	0.77	0.40	0.03	-0.01	-0.25	-0.51	0.16	1.05	1.39	1.59	1.71	0.62
72H	1.29	0.79	0.48	0.07	0.23	0.06	-0.59	0.30	1.06	1.76	2.04	2.38	0.82
96H	1.56	0.41	0.58	0.13	0.26	0.27	-0.58	0.82	1.06	2.00	2.83	3.11	1.04
120H	2.50	0.41	0.99	0.87	1.14	0.68	0.11	1.82	1.74	2.74	3.88	4.18	1.76
144H	3.42	0.33	1.64	1.77	1.87	1.93	0.65	2.80	2.41	3.18	4.38	4.84	2.44
168H	4.39	0.92	2.25	2.93	2.44	3.11	1.08	3.39	2.54	3.39	4.98	5.37	3.07
192H	5.42	1.83	3.21	3.91	3.06	4.06	1.84	3.78	3.06	4.38	6.42	6.24	3.93
216H	6.64	3.38	3.87	4.45	4.33	5.17	2.87	4.06	3.81	4.89	7.78	6.95	4.85
240H	7.12	4.34	4.32	5.43	4.61	5.92	3.03	4.42	5.19	4.66	8.22	7.08	5.36
264H	7.20	4.39	4.70	6.21	4.51	6.69	3.21	4.14	6.41	3.95	8.90	7.06	5.62
288H	7.58	4.18	4.75	7.13	4.66	8.13	3.32	3.76	7.69	3.76	9.75	6.82	5.96

표 1.30 GDAPS 남반구 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	6.53	6.80	7.10	7.56	7.93	8.31	8.72	8.54	8.53	7.63	7.26	6.62	7.63
48H	12.39	13.17	13.74	14.46	15.63	16.20	16.82	16.55	16.10	14.69	13.80	12.89	14.70
72H	19.99	22.26	21.56	23.47	25.95	26.66	27.27	27.44	25.82	23.67	22.00	20.61	23.89
96H	30.03	33.64	32.04	35.47	40.35	38.99	40.14	40.86	39.36	35.14	31.90	30.71	35.72
120H	40.38	47.18	45.88	50.59	56.05	55.44	55.80	56.29	54.79	48.13	43.53	42.23	49.69
144H	51.36	62.76	61.37	68.80	72.11	72.66	73.56	73.48	69.54	62.23	56.44	54.95	64.94
168H	62.49	79.24	74.28	86.13	85.83	88.42	88.24	89.33	84.98	76.35	69.77	66.68	79.31
192H	73.18	93.53	87.11	102.16	96.53	102.96	104.12	104.31	99.42	90.70	85.10	78.86	93.17
216H	81.57	105.83	98.89	113.49	109.32	116.58	117.02	117.65	113.70	98.52	97.93	90.47	105.08
240H	87.88	115.18	110.31	121.81	120.70	126.32	126.15	128.65	123.55	109.67	105.81	99.05	114.59
264H	93.18	118.91	119.37	127.67	132.06	133.51	134.07	133.74	130.60	119.12	112.03	106.19	121.70
288H	97.96	122.10	124.22	132.02	135.51	141.61	141.17	137.77	136.58	128.87	117.95	111.80	127.30

표 1.31 GDAPS 남반구 500hPa 고도 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
48H	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
72H	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97
96H	0.94	0.93	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.94	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94
120H	0.89	0.87	0.90	0.87	0.86	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.87	0.90	0.90	0.89	0.88
144H	0.82	0.77	0.82	0.76	0.76	0.79	0.80	0.78	0.80	0.84	0.84	0.82	0.80
168H	0.74	0.64	0.74	0.63	0.67	0.69	0.71	0.68	0.71	0.75	0.75	0.73	0.70
192H	0.64	0.50	0.64	0.49	0.59	0.58	0.60	0.57	0.60	0.65	0.62	0.62	0.59
216H	0.55	0.36	0.54	0.38	0.48	0.46	0.49	0.46	0.49	0.59	0.50	0.49	0.48
240H	0.48	0.25	0.43	0.30	0.37	0.37	0.40	0.36	0.41	0.50	0.41	0.39	0.39
264H	0.41	0.21	0.33	0.24	0.25	0.30	0.32	0.31	0.35	0.41	0.33	0.31	0.31
288H	0.33	0.17	0.28	0.21	0.21	0.23	0.24	0.28	0.29	0.31	0.27	0.23	0.26

표 1.32 GDAPS 남반구 250hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.11	-0.13	-0.08	-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.12	-0.13	-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.16	-0.11
48H	-0.14	-0.25	-0.12	-0.08	-0.15	-0.13	-0.14	-0.18	-0.15	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-0.15
72H	-0.14	-0.34	-0.16	-0.08	-0.20	-0.13	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-0.18	-0.20	-0.21	-0.18
96H	-0.21	-0.43	-0.20	-0.14	-0.24	-0.13	-0.11	-0.21	-0.24	-0.21	-0.24	-0.28	-0.22
120H	-0.32	-0.54	-0.27	-0.24	-0.30	-0.17	-0.11	-0.21	-0.28	-0.27	-0.35	-0.33	-0.28
144H	-0.46	-0.64	-0.34	-0.32	-0.40	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-0.18	-0.46	-0.47	-0.32	-0.35
168H	-0.45	-0.73	-0.34	-0.36	-0.45	-0.19	-0.06	-0.31	-0.16	-0.48	-0.51	-0.32	-0.36
192H	-0.49	-0.84	-0.26	-0.35	-0.55	-0.14	-0.08	-0.33	-0.23	-0.46	-0.53	-0.42	-0.39
216H	-0.51	-1.03	-0.22	-0.44	-0.53	-0.14	-0.13	-0.34	-0.30	-0.57	-0.54	-0.54	-0.44
240H	-0.57	-1.29	-0.17	-0.49	-0.53	-0.12	-0.16	-0.35	-0.37	-0.71	-0.60	-0.61	-0.50
264H	-0.58	-1.43	-0.17	-0.46	-0.55	-0.13	-0.13	-0.43	-0.42	-0.77	-0.62	-0.54	-0.52
288H	-0.59	-1.52	-0.12	-0.52	-0.48	-0.06	-0.15	-0.44	-0.57	-0.81	-0.52	-0.61	-0.53

표 1.33 GDAPS 남반구 250hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	3.43	3.59	3.64	3.72	3.87	3.74	3.47	3.49	3.33	3.45	3.50	3.47	3.56
48H	5.55	5.78	5.79	5.91	6.21	6.07	5.74	5.82	5.56	5.73	5.59	5.50	5.77
72H	7.80	8.26	7.92	8.37	8.71	8.60	8.11	8.29	8.03	7.89	7.88	7.67	8.13
96H	10.38	11.04	10.43	11.21	11.80	11.31	10.97	10.94	10.85	10.46	10.18	10.14	10.81
120H	12.79	14.23	13.27	14.46	14.91	14.48	14.18	14.00	13.94	13.28	12.68	12.95	13.76
144H	15.32	17.63	16.32	18.08	17.87	17.47	17.41	17.03	16.87	16.08	15.33	15.56	16.75
168H	17.82	20.50	19.42	21.44	20.35	20.22	20.00	20.11	19.70	18.79	17.72	17.80	19.49
192H	19.64	22.86	21.65	24.45	22.79	22.31	22.69	22.79	22.10	21.01	20.22	20.02	21.88
216H	20.94	24.62	23.97	26.77	25.33	24.26	24.90	25.26	24.24	22.61	22.25	22.04	23.93
240H	22.08	26.14	25.66	28.19	27.10	26.10	26.71	27.36	26.08	24.28	23.85	23.52	25.59
264H	23.01	26.79	27.15	29.15	28.85	27.41	28.19	28.59	27.07	25.96	24.84	24.60	26.80
288H	23.78	27.30	27.86	29.86	29.71	28.64	29.60	29.32	27.88	27.06	25.98	25.50	27.71

1.2 2018년 전지구예보시스템 관측검증

1.2.1 존데자료를 이용한 아시아 영역 관측검증

※ WMO-CBS 표준검증 기준에 따라 이전년도에 작성되었던 아시아 관측검증 850hPa 기온, 500hPa 지위고도 TREND 스코어는 본 본고서부터 제외됨

표 1.34 GDAPS 아시아 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.07	-0.29	-0.46	-0.52	-0.30	0.02	0.16	0.04	-0.19	-0.34	-0.11	0.04	-0.17
48H	0.08	-0.29	-0.59	-0.70	-0.33	0.07	0.27	0.11	-0.27	-0.44	0.04	0.25	-0.15
72H	0.27	-0.24	-0.57	-0.75	-0.26	0.09	0.37	0.18	-0.27	-0.47	0.24	0.44	-0.08
96H	0.38	-0.19	-0.56	-0.78	-0.18	0.20	0.44	0.29	-0.29	-0.35	0.43	0.58	0.00
120H	0.44	-0.09	-0.55	-0.81	-0.05	0.26	0.50	0.40	-0.38	-0.34	0.46	0.59	0.03
144H	0.53	-0.15	-0.65	-0.97	0.11	0.28	0.71	0.43	-0.29	-0.31	0.45	0.51	0.05
168H	0.56	-0.12	-0.73	-1.15	0.08	0.21	0.81	0.33	-0.15	-0.21	0.46	0.48	0.04
192H	0.60	0.02	-0.65	-1.35	0.15	0.26	0.70	0.36	0.04	-0.29	0.37	0.49	0.05
216H	0.36	0.27	-0.46	-1.26	0.44	0.18	0.81	0.47	-0.04	-0.20	0.45	0.46	0.12
240H	0.53	0.27	-0.86	-1.21	0.53	0.23	0.71	0.52	0.06	-0.03	0.61	0.60	0.16
264H	0.87	0.12	-1.33	-1.28	0.46	0.25	0.79	0.58	0.04	-0.06	0.63	0.70	0.15
288H	1.16	0.01	-1.03	-1.25	0.29	0.20	0.91	0.47	0.17	-0.04	0.82	0.82	0.21

표 1.35 GDAPS 아시아 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.81	1.63	1.31	1.40	1.39	1.29	1.26	1.25	1.19	1.26	1.37	1.55	1.39
48H	2.05	1.93	1.63	1.74	1.69	1.61	1.52	1.45	1.44	1.46	1.59	1.77	1.66
72H	2.34	2.18	1.91	2.13	2.10	1.87	1.82	1.67	1.63	1.73	1.74	1.95	1.92
96H	2.59	2.42	2.21	2.57	2.61	2.26	2.10	1.98	1.93	1.93	2.02	2.17	2.23
120H	3.11	2.82	2.62	3.27	3.23	2.69	2.47	2.33	2.29	2.26	2.41	2.59	2.67
144H	3.52	3.40	2.96	3.81	4.00	2.99	2.88	2.50	2.73	2.57	2.92	3.17	3.12
168H	3.87	4.06	3.46	4.57	4.63	3.50	3.16	2.82	3.13	2.97	3.65	3.70	3.63
192H	4.17	4.47	3.95	4.95	5.13	4.11	3.37	3.17	3.41	3.47	4.12	4.26	4.05
216H	4.56	4.76	4.21	5.58	5.54	4.47	3.52	3.37	3.78	4.00	4.90	4.76	4.45
240H	5.03	5.37	4.57	5.99	5.88	4.48	3.65	3.63	4.01	4.16	5.50	5.22	4.79
264H	5.45	5.63	5.05	6.14	5.83	4.77	3.66	3.77	4.34	4.54	5.83	5.36	5.03
288H	5.48	5.98	5.12	6.14	6.14	4.90	3.71	3.88	4.59	5.02	6.28	5.35	5.22

표 1.36 GDAPS 아시아 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.43	-1.49	-0.98	-1.95	-1.10	-0.96	-0.81	-2.03	-2.48	-0.97	-0.02	-0.65	-1.08
48H	-0.52	-1.89	-0.30	-2.05	-0.53	-0.47	-0.90	-2.64	-1.36	0.77	2.29	-0.10	-0.64
72H	0.92	-2.02	1.96	-1.69	0.84	0.74	-0.03	-1.27	0.41	2.20	5.82	1.19	0.76
96H	-0.55	-1.44	4.08	-1.08	0.97	0.27	-0.47	-1.08	0.19	2.04	7.55	0.92	0.95
120H	-1.90	-0.72	5.55	-1.69	1.31	0.53	-1.60	-2.43	-0.33	0.59	9.27	-0.60	0.66
144H	-2.65	-2.65	6.88	-3.34	0.86	1.15	-0.60	-2.96	0.13	1.34	9.34	-3.54	0.33
168H	0.74	-1.92	5.98	-2.22	-0.55	1.76	-0.37	-2.93	2.18	2.51	9.77	-3.78	0.93
192H	2.38	-1.05	10.38	-4.92	-1.04	3.30	-1.52	-5.63	3.20	1.98	7.34	-8.12	0.52
216H	0.95	1.82	13.75	-7.37	1.77	3.65	-1.67	-6.74	1.92	2.36	8.76	-11.84	0.61
240H	0.73	5.64	8.76	-8.87	1.66	3.13	-1.41	-7.85	1.08	5.75	16.14	-11.60	1.09
264H	3.56	9.26	4.26	-12.64	-0.95	0.43	-2.24	-7.22	2.23	9.85	20.75	-9.41	1.49
288H	8.67	12.33	5.02	-13.75	-0.84	-3.42	-2.61	-6.45	1.92	10.94	20.55	-7.12	2.10

표 1.37 GDAPS 아시아 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	13.04	10.90	11.08	11.80	12.14	13.02	13.44	12.78	11.98	11.71	11.93	12.12	12.16
48H	15.65	13.22	14.23	15.08	15.50	15.27	15.85	15.24	14.48	13.98	14.96	14.48	14.83
72H	19.67	17.30	20.25	19.61	20.68	19.27	20.09	19.35	17.91	18.14	20.62	18.14	19.25
96H	25.64	23.12	28.34	27.16	28.17	24.25	24.47	24.72	22.77	23.92	28.53	23.37	25.37
120H	35.07	31.43	38.84	35.72	39.47	31.03	30.65	30.28	29.40	31.08	39.53	31.64	33.68
144H	45.57	43.04	51.48	44.23	51.12	39.56	37.70	35.63	41.39	38.50	47.47	44.05	43.31
168H	56.66	53.46	62.24	55.24	61.49	48.15	43.44	39.64	50.49	47.83	56.02	52.02	52.22
192H	68.54	62.13	75.50	62.65	71.74	50.32	48.12	46.90	56.15	55.94	65.30	61.74	60.42
216H	77.39	74.04	85.94	67.57	79.65	54.21	51.91	50.44	62.02	64.68	70.52	67.59	67.17
240H	85.34	77.72	91.72	76.21	84.96	59.83	55.66	53.95	66.29	74.15	79.33	78.19	73.61
264H	91.98	80.90	94.26	82.96	87.52	67.49	55.96	58.70	73.73	83.16	89.33	89.71	79.64
288H	99.26	85.15	99.63	84.48	87.41	69.98	59.02	57.70	77.26	92.74	99.41	99.19	84.27

표 1.38 GDAPS 아시아 250hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	-0.86	-0.90	-0.64	-0.48	-0.33	-0.35	-0.38	-0.32	-0.20	-0.36	-0.70	-0.83	-0.53
48H	-1.00	-1.07	-0.93	-0.63	-0.61	-0.45	-0.39	-0.34	-0.28	-0.56	-1.01	-0.95	-0.68
72H	-1.01	-0.94	-1.10	-0.73	-0.69	-0.47	-0.40	-0.39	-0.41	-0.62	-1.06	-0.88	-0.72
96H	-1.10	-1.04	-1.49	-0.88	-0.66	-0.55	-0.51	-0.25	-0.40	-0.60	-1.12	-1.08	-0.81
120H	-1.17	-1.03	-1.58	-0.79	-0.87	-0.35	-0.60	-0.21	-0.65	-0.56	-1.14	-1.02	-0.83
144H	-1.34	-0.94	-1.53	-0.80	-1.06	-0.56	-0.85	-0.35	-0.44	-0.85	-0.90	-0.92	-0.88
168H	-1.45	-0.98	-1.71	-1.03	-0.81	-0.42	-0.90	-0.14	-0.65	-0.87	-1.00	-1.02	-0.92
192H	-1.77	-1.41	-1.41	-0.92	-1.24	-0.70	-0.90	0.27	-0.75	-0.65	-1.05	-0.74	-0.94
216H	-2.08	-1.87	-1.23	-0.75	-1.13	-0.49	-0.80	0.34	-0.96	-0.60	-1.15	-0.85	-0.96
240H	-2.06	-2.27	-0.97	-0.18	-1.36	-0.20	-0.74	0.41	-1.11	-0.91	-1.04	-1.24	-0.97
264H	-2.28	-2.52	-0.95	0.34	-1.03	-0.01	-0.66	0.56	-1.53	-1.21	-1.44	-1.51	-1.02
288H	-2.39	-2.64	-1.47	0.54	-1.26	0.44	-0.88	0.62	-1.79	-1.25	-1.21	-1.87	-1.10

표 1.39 GDAPS 아시아 250hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	4.70	5.07	5.67	5.58	5.90	6.13	5.65	5.08	4.83	4.81	4.66	4.59	5.22
48H	5.50	5.94	7.27	7.20	7.77	8.09	7.48	6.81	6.21	6.04	5.90	5.40	6.64
72H	6.47	7.06	8.85	8.62	9.53	9.75	9.35	8.78	7.64	7.38	7.57	6.62	8.13
96H	7.72	8.13	10.52	10.39	11.48	11.62	11.32	10.77	9.31	9.34	9.51	8.24	9.86
120H	9.35	9.71	12.76	12.22	14.57	13.47	13.16	12.68	11.22	11.64	12.31	9.67	11.90
144H	11.60	11.67	15.04	14.75	16.74	15.44	14.86	13.92	13.42	13.51	14.17	11.68	13.90
168H	13.38	13.45	17.31	16.95	18.80	17.56	16.22	15.46	15.62	14.91	15.84	13.36	15.74
192H	15.76	15.50	19.27	18.89	20.45	18.70	17.43	16.92	17.08	16.88	17.13	15.53	17.46
216H	18.64	17.40	20.66	19.99	22.18	19.30	18.37	17.73	18.58	19.23	18.31	17.15	18.96
240H	19.80	18.79	21.60	21.31	23.98	20.40	18.66	18.83	19.65	21.00	19.40	18.18	20.13
264H	19.83	20.02	22.27	22.75	24.79	22.70	18.93	19.68	21.66	21.95	21.19	20.62	21.37
288H	20.64	20.90	23.28	23.87	25.72	22.86	19.08	20.25	22.17	23.09	22.55	21.93	22.20

1.2.2 강수검증 (한반도 76개 ASOS 지점 관측자료)

표 1.40 GDAPS 한반도 강수 Threat Score

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.57	0.49	0.49	0.48	0.48	0.49	0.5	Jan.	0.5		0.32		0.38		0.23		0.48		0.34		0.37
Feb.	0.56	0.51	0.46	0.45	0.41	0.44	0.47	Feb.	0.78		0.73		0.64		0.68		0.64		0.59		0.67
Mar.	0.72	0.68	0.62	0.58	0.52	0.53	0.6	Mar.	0.7		0.65		0.62		0.53		0.52		0.44		0.57
Apr.	0.67	0.68	0.64	0.62	0.62	0.58	0.63	Apr.	0.74		0.74		0.63		0.6		0.57		0.64		0.65
May.	0.23	0.24	0.24	0.22	0.2	0.21	0.22	May.	0.09		0.1		0.06		0.06		0.09		0.08		0.08
Jun.	0.54	0.51	0.5	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.48	Jun.	0.56		0.48		0.44		0.44		0.42		0.39		0.45
Jul.	0.5	0.47	0.47	0.4	0.41	0.4	0.44	Jul.	0.49		0.47		0.42		0.35		0.33		0.25		0.38
Aug.	0.5	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.42	0.46	Aug.	0.54		0.43		0.44		0.4		0.38		0.35		0.42
Sep.	0.57	0.55	0.51	0.51	0.48	0.45	0.51	Sep.	0.61		0.56		0.46		0.46		0.4		0.36		0.47
Oct.	0.66	0.65	0.62	0.61	0.59	0.56	0.61	Oct.	0.78		0.76		0.66		0.68		0.68		0.67		0.7
Nov.	0.69	0.62	0.54	0.47	0.46	0.42	0.53	Nov.	0.55		0.51		0.49		0.42		0.47		0.44		0.48
Dec.	0.6	0.54	0.51	0.42	0.44	0.44	0.49	Dec.	0.52		0.39		0.55		0.34		0.41		0.44		0.44
TOTAL	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.44	0.43	0.48	TOTAL	0.51		0.48		0.43		0.4		0.4		0.37		0.43
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.62	0.7	0.52	0.48	0.16	0.06	0.39	Jan.	0.22		0.25		0.07		0.1		0		0		0.12
Feb.	0.82	0.8	0.79	0.68	0.69	0.68	0.74	Feb.	0.58		0.56		0.54		0.47		0.52		0.53		0.54
Mar.	0.62	0.64	0.54	0.36	0.33	0.22	0.44	Mar.	0.47		0.47		0.44		0.22		0.23		0.1		0.31
Apr.	0.58	0.46	0.54	0.45	0.38	0.38	0.45	Apr.	0.4		0.27		0.35		0.18		0.24		0.28		0.28
May.	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.05	May.	0.08		0.07		0.01		0.01		0.01		0.02		0.03
Jun.	0.51	0.47	0.37	0.43	0.37	0.33	0.41	Jun.	0.48		0.47		0.41		0.4		0.32		0.3		0.39
Jul.	0.36	0.33	0.27	0.28	0.19	0.13	0.26	Jul.	0.3		0.28		0.23		0.21		0.14		0.1		0.21
Aug.	0.43	0.31	0.35	0.32	0.3	0.24	0.32	Aug.	0.36		0.23		0.27		0.26		0.2		0.17		0.25
Sep.	0.49	0.37	0.28	0.24	0.22	0.22	0.3	Sep.	0.29		0.34		0.15		0.25		0.15		0.08		0.21
Oct.	0.76	0.75	0.66	0.63	0.49	0.58	0.64	Oct.	0.68		0.68		0.66		0.55		0.32		0.48		0.56
Nov.	0.74	0.8	0.79	0.78	0.73	0.7	0.76	Nov.	0.38		0.4		0.51		0.45		0.5		0.31		0.43
Dec.	0.24	0.12	0.13	0.07	0.11	0.15	0.14	Dec.	0.33		0		0.14		0		0		0		0.06
TOTAL	0.46	0.41	0.38	0.34	0.3	0.27	0.36	TOTAL	0.38		0.35		0.32		0.27		0.22		0.21		0.29
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL
Jan.	0	0	-	-	-	-	0
Feb.	0.14	0	0.17	0	0.17	0	0.08
Mar.	0.08	0	0	0	0	0	0.01
Apr.	0.08	0	0.08	0	0.04	0.11	0.06
May.	0.03	0	0	0	0	0	0.01
Jun.	0.38	0.46	0.39	0.25	0.28	0.24	0.33
Jul.	0.08	0.14	0.12	0.13	0.07	0.01	0.09
Aug.	0.26	0.12	0.15	0.14	0.14	0.13	0.15
Sep.	0.24	0.26	0.09	0.13	0.06	0.02	0.13
Oct.	0.55	0.51	0.45	0.43	0.17	0.35	0.41
Nov.	0	0.2	0	0	0.2	0	0.07
Dec.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	0.27	0.25	0.23	0.19	0.14	0.16	0.21

표 1.41 GDAPS 한반도 강수 Equitable Threat Score

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.5	0.41	0.42	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.42	Jan.	0.49		0.31		0.37		0.22		0.47		0.33		0.36
Feb.	0.51	0.46	0.41	0.39	0.35	0.38	0.41	Feb.	0.78		0.72		0.64		0.68		0.63		0.58		0.67
Mar.	0.64	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.41	0.42	0.51	Mar.	0.67		0.62		0.59		0.49		0.48		0.4		0.54
Apr.	0.59	0.59	0.54	0.51	0.52	0.47	0.54	Apr.	0.71		0.7		0.59		0.56		0.52		0.6		0.61
May.	0.04	0.06	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.04	May.	0.02		0.04		0		0		0.02		0.01		0.01
Jun.	0.43	0.39	0.38	0.33	0.32	0.32	0.36	Jun.	0.53		0.45		0.4		0.39		0.38		0.35		0.41
Jul.	0.38	0.35	0.35	0.28	0.29	0.28	0.32	Jul.	0.45		0.44		0.38		0.31		0.29		0.21		0.35
Aug.	0.32	0.28	0.27	0.27	0.25	0.23	0.27	Aug.	0.47		0.35		0.36		0.33		0.3		0.27		0.34
Sep.	0.44	0.42	0.38	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.37	Sep.	0.57		0.53		0.42		0.42		0.35		0.31		0.43
Oct.	0.6	0.59	0.55	0.54	0.51	0.48	0.54	Oct.	0.76		0.74		0.64		0.66		0.65		0.64		0.68
Nov.	0.64	0.57	0.48	0.4	0.4	0.36	0.47	Nov.	0.53		0.5		0.47		0.4		0.46		0.43		0.46
Dec.	0.53	0.47	0.44	0.33	0.36	0.36	0.41	Dec.	0.51		0.38		0.54		0.33		0.4		0.43		0.43
TOTAL	0.43	0.4	0.38	0.34	0.33	0.32	0.37	TOTAL	0.48		0.44		0.4		0.36		0.36		0.33		0.39
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.61	0.7	0.51	0.48	0.16	0.06	0.38	Jan.	0.22		0.25		0.07		0.1		0		0		0.12
Feb.	0.82	0.79	0.79	0.67	0.69	0.67	0.74	Feb.	0.58		0.56		0.54		0.46		0.52		0.53		0.53
Mar.	0.61	0.63	0.52	0.34	0.31	0.2	0.42	Mar.	0.46		0.46		0.43		0.21		0.22		0.1		0.3
Apr.	0.56	0.44	0.52	0.42	0.35	0.35	0.43	Apr.	0.39		0.27		0.34		0.17		0.22		0.27		0.27
May.	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	May.	0.07		0.06		0		0		0		0.01		0.02
Jun.	0.49	0.45	0.35	0.4	0.34	0.3	0.39	Jun.	0.46		0.46		0.39		0.39		0.3		0.28		0.38
Jul.	0.34	0.31	0.25	0.27	0.17	0.11	0.24	Jul.	0.28		0.27		0.22		0.2		0.13		0.09		0.2
Aug.	0.39	0.27	0.31	0.28	0.26	0.2	0.28	Aug.	0.33		0.21		0.24		0.23		0.18		0.15		0.22
Sep.	0.47	0.35	0.26	0.23	0.2	0.2	0.28	Sep.	0.28		0.33		0.15		0.24		0.14		0.07		0.2
Oct.	0.75	0.74	0.64	0.61	0.47	0.57	0.63	Oct.	0.68		0.67		0.65		0.54		0.31		0.47		0.55
Nov.	0.74	0.8	0.79	0.77	0.73	0.69	0.75	Nov.	0.38		0.39		0.51		0.44		0.5		0.31		0.42
Dec.	0.24	0.12	0.13	0.07	0.11	0.15	0.14	Dec.	0.33		0		0.14		0		0		0		0.06
TOTAL	0.44	0.4	0.36	0.32	0.28	0.25	0.34	TOTAL	0.37		0.34		0.31		0.26		0.21		0.2		0.28
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL
Jan.	0	0	-	-	-	-	0
Feb.	0.14	0	0.17	0	0.17	0	0.08
Mar.	0.08	0	0	0	0	0	0.01
Apr.	0.08	0	0.08	0	0.04	0.11	0.05
May.	0.02	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jun.	0.37	0.45	0.38	0.25	0.27	0.24	0.32
Jul.	0.08	0.13	0.11	0.13	0.07	0.01	0.09
Aug.	0.25	0.11	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.12	0.14
Sep.	0.24	0.26	0.09	0.12	0.05	0.01	0.13
Oct.	0.54	0.5	0.44	0.43	0.17	0.34	0.41
Nov.	0	0.2	0	0	0.2	0	0.07
Dec.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	0.27	0.24	0.22	0.19	0.14	0.16	0.2

표 1.42 GDAPS 한반도 강수 BIAS

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	1.44	1.51	1.46	1.48	1.49	1.54	1.49	Jan.	1.23		0.85		1.21		1.2		1.3		1.51		1.22
Feb.	1.48	1.55	1.61	1.75	1.96	1.76	1.69	Feb.	0.99		1.02		1.14		1.09		1.17		1.3		1.12
Mar.	1.3	1.24	1.23	1.3	1.36	1.45	1.31	Mar.	1.06		1.11		1.04		1.1		1.04		1.08		1.07
Apr.	1.16	1.17	1.23	1.33	1.29	1.26	1.24	Apr.	0.93		0.88		0.89		0.95		1.1		1.06		0.97
May.	1.55	1.55	1.49	1.49	1.54	1.6	1.54	May.	1.35		1.05		1.21		1.23		1.21		1.41		1.24
Jun.	1.66	1.65	1.71	1.79	1.6	1.59	1.67	Jun.	1.02		1.05		1.19		1.26		0.96		1.19		1.11
Jul.	1.84	1.9	1.87	1.77	1.73	1.74	1.81	Jul.	1.17		1.11		1.05		0.9		0.82		0.93		1
Aug.	1.78	1.84	1.8	1.79	1.75	1.8	1.79	Aug.	1.25		1.18		1.2		1.18		1.19		1.15		1.19
Sep.	1.45	1.32	1.28	1.34	1.34	1.54	1.38	Sep.	1.03		0.9		0.8		0.82		0.96		1.12		0.94
Oct.	1.15	1.15	1.12	1.17	1.2	1.19	1.16	Oct.	0.92		0.94		0.88		0.93		0.93		0.99		0.93
Nov.	1.3	1.25	1.37	1.26	1.19	1.17	1.26	Nov.	0.91		0.72		0.76		0.85		0.86		0.77		0.81
Dec.	1.31	1.37	1.45	1.38	1.38	1.43	1.38	Dec.	0.88		0.8		1.21		0.8		0.9		1.23		0.97
TOTAL	1.47	1.47	1.47	1.49	1.48	1.52	1.48	TOTAL	1.09		1.01		1.04		1.04		1.04		1.13		1.06
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	1.47	1	1.76	1.71	1.59	1.06	1.43	Jan.	3.4		2		2.2		1.2		1.2		0.4		1.73
Feb.	1	1.04	0.99	0.86	0.88	0.86	0.94	Feb.	1.29		1.34		1.03		0.74		0.84		0.89		1.02
Mar.	1.13	1.1	0.98	1.07	1.06	0.98	1.05	Mar.	1.13		1.4		1.1		1.31		1.67		0.79		1.23
Apr.	0.92	0.67	0.81	0.95	1.3	1.33	1	Apr.	0.73		0.42		0.64		0.9		1.42		1.33		0.91
May.	1.31	1.07	0.76	1.27	1.26	1.61	1.21	May.	1.01		0.98		0.77		1.24		1.45		1.95		1.23
Jun.	0.88	0.89	0.97	1	0.82	1.1	0.94	Jun.	0.78		0.87		0.93		1		0.91		1.03		0.92
Jul.	0.89	0.73	0.73	0.72	0.55	0.64	0.71	Jul.	0.72		0.56		0.57		0.65		0.44		0.54		0.58
Aug.	1	0.77	0.85	0.96	0.84	0.82	0.87	Aug.	0.84		0.61		0.76		0.81		0.69		0.7		0.73
Sep.	1.11	0.72	0.64	0.6	0.79	0.93	0.8	Sep.	0.94		0.75		0.58		0.5		0.7		0.68		0.69
Oct.	0.97	0.99	0.91	0.93	0.79	1.1	0.95	Oct.	1.11		1.26		1.09		0.89		0.67		1.28		1.05
Nov.	1.04	1.06	1	1.06	1.1	0.91	1.03	Nov.	0.95		0.9		1.21		1.15		0.92		0.72		0.97
Dec.	1.31	0.28	1.1	0.59	0.72	1.59	0.93	Dec.	0.33		0		1.67		1.33		1.33		1.67		1.06
TOTAL	1.03	0.86	0.86	0.95	0.93	1.05	0.95	TOTAL	0.91		0.82		0.82		0.88		0.89		0.96		0.88
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Feb.	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0	0.33
Mar.	0.63	0.13	0.5	0.38	1	0.13	0.46
Apr.	0.86	0.71	0.86	0.86	2.43	1.86	1.26
May.	2	1.54	0.31	1.31	1.62	1.15	1.32
Jun.	0.86	1.15	1.22	1.27	1.27	1.2	1.16
Jul.	0.58	0.82	0.92	0.56	0.48	0.52	0.65
Aug.	0.57	0.46	0.62	0.65	0.64	0.67	0.6
Sep.	0.79	0.67	0.42	0.44	0.33	0.37	0.5
Oct.	1.13	1.19	1.48	1.02	0.38	1.55	1.12
Nov.	1	1	0.67	0.33	1	0.33	0.72
Dec.	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.5
TOTAL	0.79	0.81	0.87	0.8	0.73	0.87	0.81

2 지역예보시스템

2.1 2018년 지역예보시스템 분석검증

표 2.1 RDAPS 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	-0.21	-0.24	-0.23	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	-0.10	-0.17	-0.14
24H	-0.31	-0.39	-0.41	-0.35	-0.24	-0.12	-0.09	-0.18	-0.18	-0.25	-0.17	-0.26	-0.25
36H	-0.36	-0.50	-0.49	-0.45	-0.32	-0.16	-0.13	-0.23	-0.21	-0.31	-0.20	-0.30	-0.30
48H	-0.39	-0.57	-0.56	-0.53	-0.39	-0.20	-0.18	-0.25	-0.23	-0.37	-0.20	-0.32	-0.35
60H	-0.40	-0.60	-0.59	-0.58	-0.42	-0.21	-0.21	-0.25	-0.25	-0.40	-0.17	-0.31	-0.37
72H	-0.40	-0.64	-0.58	-0.61	-0.41	-0.21	-0.24	-0.25	-0.24	-0.42	-0.14	-0.28	-0.37
84H	-0.42	-0.69	-0.57	-0.64	-0.39	-0.18	-0.24	-0.20	-0.26	-0.44	-0.13	-0.27	-0.37

표 2.2 RDAPS 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	1.08	1.09	1.07	0.96	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.79	0.77	0.84	0.93	0.97	0.92
24H	1.40	1.39	1.34	1.23	1.14	1.04	1.04	0.96	0.93	1.01	1.15	1.24	1.15
36H	1.67	1.65	1.57	1.45	1.34	1.22	1.20	1.15	1.08	1.19	1.37	1.46	1.36
48H	1.84	1.81	1.75	1.63	1.53	1.37	1.34	1.28	1.20	1.32	1.49	1.57	1.51
60H	1.99	1.99	1.92	1.79	1.70	1.51	1.47	1.42	1.32	1.47	1.63	1.70	1.66
72H	2.10	2.10	2.06	1.94	1.85	1.63	1.59	1.54	1.40	1.61	1.74	1.81	1.78
84H	2.21	2.22	2.22	2.07	2.04	1.78	1.71	1.66	1.47	1.76	1.87	1.92	1.91

표 2.3 RDAPS 850hPa 기온 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	50.90	52.23	55.07	56.84	59.56	62.73	62.74	63.77	60.98	59.51	54.91	50.61	57.49
24H	58.08	59.46	62.86	65.44	68.96	72.28	73.56	74.14	70.42	68.10	63.02	57.98	66.19
36H	60.73	61.71	65.80	68.41	72.07	75.44	76.95	77.68	73.46	70.93	65.78	60.26	69.10
48H	62.30	63.14	67.59	70.39	74.01	77.65	78.97	79.87	75.33	72.58	67.43	61.54	70.90
60H	63.35	64.43	69.12	72.01	75.76	78.94	80.33	81.26	76.86	73.91	68.82	62.56	72.28
72H	64.17	65.61	70.47	73.55	77.14	80.22	81.72	82.35	77.94	74.95	69.99	63.61	73.48
84H	65.03	66.58	71.82	74.80	78.25	81.35	82.77	83.30	78.80	76.12	71.40	64.56	74.57

표 2.4 RDAPS 500hPa 지위고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	-3.41	-3.66	-0.81	-1.89	-1.95	-2.42	-2.55	-3.68	-3.24	-2.43	-1.19	-2.57	-2.48
24H	-4.67	-5.09	-0.98	-1.43	-1.69	-2.86	-3.57	-5.39	-4.49	-3.81	-1.53	-3.51	-3.25
36H	-5.69	-6.03	-0.48	-1.21	-1.68	-3.51	-4.38	-5.81	-4.34	-3.76	-1.03	-3.77	-3.47
48H	-6.87	-6.60	-0.67	-1.37	-1.18	-3.47	-4.14	-5.47	-3.76	-4.10	-0.27	-4.29	-3.51
60H	-6.73	-5.89	0.19	-0.94	-1.31	-4.17	-4.19	-5.07	-3.38	-4.25	1.19	-3.75	-3.19
72H	-6.22	-5.49	1.61	0.49	-0.49	-3.60	-3.83	-3.54	-3.05	-5.24	2.77	-2.93	-2.46
84H	-8.02	-6.47	2.72	1.02	-0.27	-3.60	-4.38	-2.87	-3.79	-7.81	2.64	-3.78	-2.88

표 2.5 RDAPS 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	6.35	6.26	4.83	4.99	4.83	5.03	5.09	5.74	5.62	5.09	4.42	5.66	5.33
24H	9.45	8.80	7.11	6.72	6.51	7.13	7.86	9.03	8.68	8.09	6.52	8.33	7.85
36H	12.41	11.02	9.39	8.89	8.66	9.56	10.67	11.65	11.32	10.84	8.61	10.21	10.27
48H	14.87	12.78	11.46	10.78	10.83	11.74	13.15	14.14	13.71	13.89	10.75	11.81	12.49
60H	16.89	14.48	14.01	12.82	13.34	14.34	16.02	16.37	15.89	16.56	12.55	13.33	14.72
72H	18.75	16.25	16.76	15.24	15.79	16.73	18.73	18.38	18.29	19.31	14.79	14.70	16.98
84H	21.03	18.56	18.95	17.40	18.89	19.29	21.37	20.99	20.80	23.40	17.44	16.51	19.55

표 2.6 RDAPS 500hPa 고도 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	17.58	17.08	20.57	23.27	27.47	34.03	36.69	35.61	27.21	23.21	19.39	17.20	24.94
24H	20.75	20.02	24.02	26.97	31.73	38.84	42.51	41.53	32.12	27.52	22.65	20.14	29.07
36H	22.68	21.46	25.89	28.88	33.99	41.58	46.12	45.08	35.29	30.43	24.56	21.72	31.47
48H	24.03	22.48	27.43	30.58	35.95	43.95	49.27	48.15	37.83	32.84	26.17	22.70	33.45
60H	25.06	23.65	28.97	32.01	38.01	46.09	52.53	50.77	40.05	34.83	27.35	23.80	35.26
72H	26.10	24.70	30.74	33.62	39.93	48.38	55.38	53.34	42.12	36.50	28.59	24.71	37.01
84H	27.12	25.75	32.41	35.00	41.71	50.45	57.89	56.22	43.84	38.35	30.19	25.68	38.72

표 2.7 RDAPS 300hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	-0.27	-0.23	-0.14	0.00	0.04	-0.11	-0.24	-0.06	-0.10	0.03	-0.08	-0.08	-0.10
24H	-0.19	-0.09	-0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.10	-0.28	-0.03	-0.08	0.15	-0.19	-0.04	-0.07
36H	-0.19	-0.12	-0.18	-0.09	-0.11	-0.16	-0.39	-0.16	-0.15	0.22	-0.29	-0.02	-0.14
48H	-0.20	-0.12	-0.28	-0.16	-0.18	-0.15	-0.55	-0.20	-0.25	0.23	-0.33	-0.10	-0.19
60H	-0.22	-0.03	-0.43	-0.22	-0.29	-0.11	-0.64	-0.26	-0.38	0.23	-0.36	-0.08	-0.23
72H	-0.18	-0.01	-0.58	-0.19	-0.44	-0.09	-0.74	-0.24	-0.50	0.25	-0.46	-0.05	-0.27
84H	-0.21	-0.02	-0.71	-0.22	-0.56	-0.08	-0.82	-0.29	-0.55	0.24	-0.52	-0.10	-0.32

표 2.8 RDAPS 300hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	3.73	3.63	3.78	3.68	3.78	3.86	3.73	3.63	3.65	3.48	3.35	3.34	3.64
24H	5.08	4.87	5.25	5.09	5.35	5.46	5.26	5.22	5.19	4.95	4.72	4.34	5.06
36H	5.85	5.67	6.30	6.06	6.40	6.65	6.36	6.38	6.23	6.00	5.71	4.99	6.05
48H	6.26	6.23	7.09	6.85	7.32	7.56	7.31	7.27	7.09	6.93	6.51	5.52	6.83
60H	6.63	6.65	7.86	7.68	8.27	8.35	8.12	8.13	7.88	7.77	7.15	5.98	7.54
72H	7.06	7.25	8.75	8.44	9.05	9.12	8.88	8.84	8.58	8.61	7.79	6.44	8.24
84H	7.48	7.83	9.57	9.18	10.09	9.87	9.62	9.64	9.25	9.43	8.45	6.98	8.95

2.2 2018년 지역예보시스템 분석검증

2.2.1 존데자료를 이용한 RDAPS영역 관측검증

표 2.9 RDAPS 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	-0.25	-0.30	-0.29	-0.29	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	-0.14	-0.12	-0.28	-0.22	-0.26	-0.20
24H	-0.32	-0.43	-0.48	-0.46	-0.25	-0.08	-0.08	-0.27	-0.19	-0.38	-0.27	-0.31	-0.29
36H	-0.32	-0.50	-0.55	-0.56	-0.33	-0.10	-0.12	-0.35	-0.22	-0.48	-0.30	-0.31	-0.34
48H	-0.33	-0.53	-0.61	-0.64	-0.39	-0.13	-0.20	-0.41	-0.24	-0.53	-0.26	-0.29	-0.38
60H	-0.34	-0.62	-0.62	-0.69	-0.38	-0.14	-0.25	-0.41	-0.26	-0.56	-0.21	-0.28	-0.40
72H	-0.35	-0.67	-0.62	-0.70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.29	-0.39	-0.27	-0.56	-0.15	-0.24	-0.39
84H	-0.40	-0.76	-0.64	-0.76	-0.31	-0.14	-0.30	-0.33	-0.27	-0.57	-0.13	-0.26	-0.41

표 2.10 RDAPS 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	1.47	1.41	1.50	1.41	1.31	1.21	1.24	1.18	1.15	1.16	1.26	1.39	1.31
24H	1.63	1.57	1.67	1.56	1.41	1.27	1.30	1.25	1.22	1.24	1.33	1.49	1.41
36H	1.78	1.74	1.83	1.73	1.56	1.42	1.43	1.41	1.32	1.39	1.49	1.62	1.56
48H	1.93	1.87	1.99	1.87	1.72	1.53	1.51	1.54	1.41	1.51	1.59	1.73	1.68
60H	2.07	2.01	2.12	2.06	1.86	1.64	1.62	1.67	1.53	1.65	1.71	1.83	1.81
72H	2.18	2.14	2.26	2.14	1.98	1.81	1.70	1.76	1.61	1.75	1.82	1.94	1.93
84H	2.32	2.26	2.43	2.28	2.18	1.96	1.79	1.89	1.68	1.88	1.91	2.00	2.05

표 2.11 RDAPS 500hPa 지위고도 Mean Error [m] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	-2.33	-3.76	-0.76	-1.90	-1.14	-1.26	-1.67	-3.33	-2.74	-3.75	-1.90	-2.51	-2.25
24H	-3.36	-4.77	-0.53	-1.24	-0.76	-1.44	-2.70	-5.50	-3.97	-4.90	-2.02	-3.34	-2.88
36H	-4.33	-5.68	0.24	-0.90	-0.60	-2.10	-3.81	-6.32	-3.74	-4.71	-1.33	-3.33	-3.05
48H	-5.71	-6.50	0.29	-0.75	0.26	-2.26	-3.82	-6.10	-3.20	-5.11	-0.35	-3.79	-3.09
60H	-5.89	-6.54	0.93	-0.07	0.51	-3.02	-4.26	-5.81	-2.86	-5.63	1.19	-3.19	-2.89
72H	-5.61	-6.50	2.14	1.25	1.38	-2.78	-4.22	-4.58	-2.56	-6.81	2.73	-2.64	-2.35
84H	-7.60	-7.43	3.25	1.81	1.79	-3.15	-4.99	-4.02	-3.29	-9.59	2.54	-3.67	-2.86

표 2.12 RDAPS 500hPa 지위고도 RMSE [m] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	11.81	10.84	9.51	10.09	10.25	11.18	13.38	10.99	10.79	11.03	11.76	11.88	11.12
24H	13.70	12.27	10.81	10.95	11.18	12.03	14.41	13.06	12.04	12.66	12.61	13.14	12.40
36H	15.81	13.89	12.45	12.49	12.37	13.52	15.87	14.84	13.41	14.06	13.70	14.42	13.90
48H	17.32	15.27	14.37	13.95	14.17	15.27	17.21	16.51	14.74	16.32	15.06	15.39	15.46
60H	19.21	16.94	16.56	15.73	15.89	17.42	19.32	18.34	16.54	18.80	16.42	16.57	17.31
72H	20.71	18.61	18.62	17.63	17.94	19.58	21.46	19.86	18.69	21.60	18.35	17.55	19.22
84H	22.92	20.54	20.63	19.25	20.79	21.94	23.39	22.25	20.83	25.58	20.55	19.06	21.48

표 2.13 RDAPS 300hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	-1.43	-1.22	-0.76	-0.34	-0.32	-0.41	-0.34	-0.25	-0.22	-0.53	-0.61	-0.93	-0.61
24H	-1.36	-1.10	-0.80	-0.40	-0.35	-0.48	-0.30	-0.22	-0.21	-0.35	-0.78	-0.82	-0.60
36H	-1.34	-1.22	-1.05	-0.69	-0.59	-0.61	-0.35	-0.35	-0.26	-0.46	-1.01	-0.83	-0.73
48H	-1.37	-1.22	-1.29	-0.81	-0.76	-0.61	-0.46	-0.34	-0.37	-0.49	-1.15	-0.92	-0.82
60H	-1.33	-1.04	-1.41	-1.02	-0.87	-0.59	-0.52	-0.42	-0.60	-0.52	-1.21	-0.89	-0.87
72H	-1.24	-0.98	-1.52	-1.00	-1.01	-0.50	-0.56	-0.40	-0.69	-0.54	-1.32	-0.80	-0.88
84H	-1.27	-0.92	-1.71	-1.12	-1.23	-0.63	-0.59	-0.38	-0.74	-0.54	-1.30	-0.77	-0.93

표 2.14 RDAPS 300hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
12H	5.49	5.31	5.24	4.99	5.19	5.15	4.95	4.71	4.80	4.77	4.81	4.86	5.02
24H	6.14	5.84	6.08	5.78	6.09	6.07	5.66	5.48	5.59	5.53	5.45	5.20	5.74
36H	6.64	6.40	6.93	6.61	6.96	7.10	6.49	6.41	6.27	6.25	6.19	5.56	6.49
48H	6.99	6.79	7.68	7.41	7.83	7.85	7.24	7.19	6.91	7.10	6.86	6.08	7.16
60H	7.35	7.25	8.57	8.16	8.64	8.70	7.98	7.92	7.55	7.90	7.43	6.48	7.83
72H	7.71	7.86	9.35	8.90	9.21	9.48	8.69	8.63	8.09	8.55	8.03	6.95	8.45
84H	8.12	8.44	10.01	9.66	10.28	10.29	9.49	9.44	8.78	9.38	8.69	7.54	9.18

2.2.2 강수검증 (한반도 76개 ASOS 지점 관측자료)

표 2.15 RDAPS 한반도 강수 Threat Score

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.52	0.5	0.49	0.49	0.47	0.46	0.49	Jan.	0.48		0.33		0.38		0.33		0.32		0.31		0.36
Feb.	0.49	0.5	0.47	0.43	0.38	0.37	0.44	Feb.	0.75		0.77		0.73		0.66		0.57		0.54		0.66
Mar.	0.69	0.64	0.62	0.59	0.55	0.58	0.61	Mar.	0.71		0.65		0.6		0.5		0.47		0.38		0.54
Apr.	0.67	0.68	0.66	0.61	0.62	0.57	0.63	Apr.	0.71		0.7		0.63		0.69		0.62		0.6		0.66
May.	0.22	0.22	0.23	0.22	0.2	0.19	0.21	May.	0.09		0.1		0.09		0.09		0.09		0.06		0.09
Jun.	0.55	0.52	0.52	0.5	0.47	0.43	0.5	Jun.	0.54		0.51		0.46		0.4		0.34		0.32		0.42
Jul.	0.5	0.46	0.47	0.45	0.4	0.41	0.45	Jul.	0.53		0.42		0.35		0.39		0.29		0.32		0.38
Aug.	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.39	0.45	Aug.	0.53		0.44		0.32		0.27		0.23		0.2		0.33
Sep.	0.58	0.54	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.46	0.51	Sep.	0.55		0.4		0.31		0.23		0.36		0.28		0.36
Oct.	0.66	0.66	0.61	0.6	0.57	0.51	0.6	Oct.	0.72		0.71		0.71		0.6		0.55		0.48		0.62
Nov.	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.51	0.45	0.43	0.53	Nov.	0.52		0.46		0.41		0.41		0.45		0.38		0.44
Dec.	0.59	0.54	0.5	0.46	0.47	0.4	0.49	Dec.	0.63		0.37		0.23		0.14		0.36		0.54		0.37
TOTAL	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.47	0.44	0.42	0.47	TOTAL	0.51		0.45		0.4		0.36		0.35		0.32		0.4
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.57	0.68	0.5	0.29	0.3	0.35	0.41	Jan.	0.23		0.43		0.06		0		0.33		0.1		0.14
Feb.	0.82	0.82	0.84	0.78	0.79	0.78	0.8	Feb.	0.63		0.58		0.56		0.52		0.53		0.52		0.55
Mar.	0.63	0.56	0.43	0.35	0.36	0.27	0.42	Mar.	0.44		0.36		0.35		0.22		0.23		0.2		0.29
Apr.	0.59	0.53	0.53	0.52	0.42	0.35	0.48	Apr.	0.31		0.28		0.31		0.34		0.3		0.25		0.3
May.	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.07	0.05	0.06	May.	0.01		0.06		0.01		0.04		0.03		0.01		0.02
Jun.	0.55	0.47	0.46	0.46	0.3	0.25	0.41	Jun.	0.45		0.42		0.42		0.41		0.27		0.25		0.37
Jul.	0.43	0.32	0.23	0.31	0.17	0.23	0.28	Jul.	0.39		0.29		0.21		0.24		0.18		0.23		0.26
Aug.	0.42	0.29	0.19	0.13	0.14	0.09	0.21	Aug.	0.38		0.22		0.14		0.09		0.09		0.07		0.17
Sep.	0.38	0.32	0.23	0.11	0.13	0.09	0.2	Sep.	0.28		0.28		0.13		0.04		0.03		0.04		0.13
Oct.	0.78	0.65	0.63	0.4	0.34	0.33	0.51	Oct.	0.69		0.61		0.48		0.23		0.22		0.26		0.41
Nov.	0.74	0.6	0.78	0.75	0.64	0.71	0.7	Nov.	0.4		0.42		0.4		0.44		0.31		0.61		0.42
Dec.	0.21	0.13	0.07	0.03	0.07	0.17	0.12	Dec.	0.25		0.17		0.14		0		0		0.07		0.09
TOTAL	0.46	0.39	0.34	0.3	0.26	0.22	0.32	TOTAL	0.38		0.33		0.26		0.22		0.19		0.18		0.25
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	0	-	-	-	0	0
Feb.	0.43	0	0.1	0.29	0	0	0.12
Mar.	0.36	0	0	0	0	0	0.04
Apr.	0.19	0.09	0	0	0.05	0.08	0.06
May.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jun.	0.19	0.24	0.23	0.38	0.22	0.23	0.25
Jul.	0.05	0.08	0.04	0.02	0.08	0.06	0.06
Aug.	0.21	0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	0.06	0.09
Sep.	0.32	0.26	0.02	0	0.04	0	0.11
Oct.	0.63	0.6	0.39	0.1	0.06	0.22	0.31
Nov.	0.2	0.67	0	0.33	0	0	0.17
Dec.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	0.26	0.21	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.11	0.15

표 2.16 RDAPS 한반도 강수 Equitable Threat Score

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.44	0.42	0.41	0.4	0.39	0.37	0.4	Jan.	0.47		0.32		0.38		0.32		0.31		0.3		0.35
Feb.	0.44	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.32	0.3	0.38	Feb.	0.75		0.77		0.73		0.65		0.56		0.52		0.65
Mar.	0.6	0.55	0.53	0.49	0.45	0.48	0.52	Mar.	0.69		0.62		0.56		0.46		0.42		0.33		0.51
Apr.	0.58	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.51	0.47	0.54	Apr.	0.67		0.67		0.59		0.65		0.57		0.55		0.62
May.	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	0.04	May.	0.03		0.04		0.03		0.03		0.02		0		0.02
Jun.	0.43	0.4	0.4	0.38	0.35	0.3	0.38	Jun.	0.5		0.47		0.41		0.35		0.29		0.28		0.38
Jul.	0.39	0.34	0.36	0.33	0.28	0.29	0.33	Jul.	0.49		0.38		0.31		0.36		0.25		0.28		0.34
Aug.	0.34	0.31	0.28	0.25	0.22	0.2	0.27	Aug.	0.47		0.38		0.26		0.21		0.17		0.14		0.27
Sep.	0.45	0.41	0.37	0.38	0.37	0.32	0.38	Sep.	0.52		0.37		0.28		0.19		0.32		0.24		0.32
Oct.	0.59	0.6	0.55	0.53	0.49	0.42	0.53	Oct.	0.7		0.69		0.69		0.58		0.52		0.44		0.6
Nov.	0.59	0.55	0.5	0.45	0.38	0.36	0.47	Nov.	0.5		0.44		0.39		0.39		0.43		0.37		0.42
Dec.	0.53	0.47	0.42	0.38	0.39	0.32	0.41	Dec.	0.62		0.35		0.21		0.13		0.35		0.53		0.36
TOTAL	0.42	0.4	0.38	0.36	0.33	0.3	0.36	TOTAL	0.48		0.42		0.36		0.33		0.31		0.28		0.36
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.57	0.68	0.5	0.29	0.3	0.35	0.41	Jan.	0.23		0.43		0.06		0		0.33		0.1		0.14
Feb.	0.82	0.81	0.83	0.78	0.79	0.78	0.8	Feb.	0.62		0.58		0.56		0.51		0.53		0.52		0.55
Mar.	0.62	0.54	0.42	0.33	0.34	0.25	0.4	Mar.	0.44		0.36		0.34		0.21		0.22		0.19		0.28
Apr.	0.57	0.51	0.51	0.5	0.39	0.32	0.45	Apr.	0.3		0.27		0.3		0.32		0.28		0.24		0.28
May.	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.03	May.	0		0.05		0		0.03		0.01		0		0.01
Jun.	0.53	0.45	0.44	0.44	0.28	0.22	0.39	Jun.	0.44		0.4		0.4		0.4		0.26		0.24		0.35
Jul.	0.41	0.3	0.21	0.29	0.16	0.21	0.26	Jul.	0.37		0.29		0.2		0.23		0.17		0.22		0.25
Aug.	0.39	0.26	0.16	0.11	0.12	0.07	0.18	Aug.	0.36		0.21		0.13		0.08		0.08		0.06		0.15
Sep.	0.36	0.31	0.21	0.09	0.11	0.07	0.19	Sep.	0.27		0.27		0.13		0.04		0.02		0.03		0.12
Oct.	0.77	0.64	0.61	0.38	0.32	0.31	0.49	Oct.	0.68		0.59		0.46		0.22		0.21		0.24		0.39
Nov.	0.74	0.6	0.78	0.75	0.64	0.71	0.7	Nov.	0.4		0.42		0.39		0.43		0.31		0.61		0.42
Dec.	0.21	0.12	0.07	0.03	0.07	0.16	0.12	Dec.	0.25		0.17		0.14		0		0		0.07		0.09
TOTAL	0.45	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.24	0.21	0.31	TOTAL	0.38		0.32		0.25		0.21		0.18		0.17		0.25
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	0	-	-	-	0	0
Feb.	0.43	0	0.1	0.29	0	0	0.12
Mar.	0.36	0	0	0	0	0	0.04
Apr.	0.19	0.09	0	0	0.05	0.08	0.06
May.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jun.	0.19	0.23	0.23	0.38	0.21	0.23	0.24
Jul.	0.05	0.08	0.04	0.01	0.08	0.06	0.05
Aug.	0.2	0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.09
Sep.	0.32	0.26	0.02	0	0.04	0	0.11
Oct.	0.63	0.6	0.39	0.1	0.05	0.21	0.31
Nov.	0.2	0.67	0	0.33	0	0	0.17
Dec.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	0.26	0.21	0.14	0.11	0.07	0.11	0.15

표 2.17 RDAPS 한반도 강수 BIAS

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	1.78	1.71	1.77	1.72	1.79	1.7	1.74	Jan.	1.16		0.83		0.92		1.19		1.3		1		1.07
Feb.	1.87	1.65	1.71	2.01	2.32	2.42	2	Feb.	1.02		0.95		0.92		1.14		1.27		1.3		1.1
Mar.	1.41	1.38	1.32	1.33	1.35	1.35	1.36	Mar.	1.04		1.08		1.01		1.05		1.09		0.99		1.05
Apr.	1.17	1.23	1.28	1.34	1.28	1.23	1.25	Apr.	0.86		0.86		0.93		1.03		1.06		1.12		0.98
May.	1.51	1.48	1.4	1.4	1.46	1.54	1.47	May.	1.32		1.21		1.08		1.18		1.28		1.35		1.24
Jun.	1.72	1.69	1.63	1.69	1.64	1.71	1.68	Jun.	1.16		1.27		1.19		1.44		1.22		1.28		1.26
Jul.	1.91	1.94	1.76	1.78	1.83	1.86	1.85	Jul.	1.14		0.79		0.77		0.72		0.72		1.14		0.88
Aug.	1.76	1.75	1.72	1.62	1.61	1.61	1.68	Aug.	1		0.79		0.71		0.74		0.62		0.65		0.75
Sep.	1.35	1.18	1.08	1.09	1.28	1.22	1.2	Sep.	0.92		0.6		0.52		0.47		0.82		0.76		0.68
Oct.	1.18	1.12	1.11	1.2	1.32	1.37	1.22	Oct.	0.87		0.85		0.81		0.77		0.87		0.84		0.83
Nov.	1.43	1.39	1.52	1.47	1.46	1.24	1.42	Nov.	1.12		0.72		0.93		0.92		0.94		0.64		0.88
Dec.	1.45	1.49	1.65	1.49	1.5	1.5	1.51	Dec.	1.16		0.83		0.93		0.5		0.85		0.94		0.87
TOTAL	1.53	1.49	1.47	1.48	1.52	1.52	1.5	TOTAL	1.04		0.91		0.88		0.91		0.96		0.99		0.95
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL	MONTH	12H		24H		36H		48H		60H		72H		TOTAL
Jan.	1.59	1.18	1.82	1.88	3.06	2.65	2.03	Jan.	2.2		1		2.6		2.4		2.2		5.8		2.7
Feb.	0.95	1.04	0.99	0.9	1.11	1.12	1.02	Feb.	1.18		1.37		1.34		1.16		1.58		1.53		1.36
Mar.	1.04	1.2	1.11	1.12	1.36	1.15	1.16	Mar.	1.17		1.65		1.31		1.35		2.08		1.67		1.54
Apr.	0.84	0.9	0.92	1.12	1.3	1.34	1.07	Apr.	0.64		0.84		0.82		1.18		1.74		1.43		1.11
May.	1.06	1.12	0.93	1.35	1.42	1.65	1.25	May.	0.71		0.95		0.86		1.19		1.44		1.82		1.16
Jun.	0.82	1.03	0.96	0.94	0.78	0.96	0.91	Jun.	0.76		0.99		0.81		0.83		0.66		0.84		0.82
Jul.	0.88	0.59	0.56	0.53	0.49	0.82	0.65	Jul.	0.74		0.45		0.48		0.42		0.34		0.68		0.52
Aug.	0.74	0.49	0.39	0.34	0.33	0.33	0.44	Aug.	0.66		0.39		0.31		0.23		0.2		0.28		0.34
Sep.	0.72	0.56	0.39	0.33	0.65	0.71	0.56	Sep.	0.6		0.63		0.31		0.15		0.49		0.71		0.48
Oct.	0.92	0.9	0.92	0.67	0.75	0.86	0.84	Oct.	1.07		1.19		0.83		0.57		0.65		0.96		0.88
Nov.	1.11	0.86	0.99	1.1	1.04	0.79	0.98	Nov.	1.05		0.82		0.54		1.1		1.05		0.82		0.9
Dec.	1.34	0.55	0.62	0.14	0.55	1.17	0.73	Dec.	0.67		1.33		1.67		0.33		2		4		1.67
TOTAL	0.88	0.83	0.77	0.78	0.86	0.94	0.84	TOTAL	0.79		0.81		0.66		0.66		0.79		0.92		0.77
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	12H	24H	36H	48H	60H	72H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Feb.	1	0.8	1.2	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.9
Mar.	0.88	0.88	0.88	1.13	2.38	1	1.19
Apr.	1.71	2.43	1.43	2.86	5	2.71	2.69
May.	0	0.69	0.08	0.69	0.85	2	0.72
Jun.	0.42	0.77	0.64	0.85	0.66	0.93	0.71
Jul.	0.54	0.54	0.46	0.3	0.32	0.66	0.47
Aug.	0.43	0.24	0.16	0.12	0.09	0.21	0.21
Sep.	0.53	0.58	0.12	0	0.28	0.05	0.26
Oct.	1.02	1.16	0.61	0.55	0.75	0.92	0.83
Nov.	1	0.67	0	0.33	0	1	0.5
Dec.	0	1	0	0	1	2	0.67
TOTAL	0.57	0.63	0.4	0.43	0.51	0.64	0.53

3 국지예보시스템

3.1 2018년 국지예보시스템 분석검증

표 3.1 LDAPS 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.09	0.10	0.11	0.10	0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.00	0.03
12H	-0.23	-0.30	-0.32	-0.32	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	-0.06	-0.12	-0.28	-0.27	-0.14	-0.18
18H	-0.22	-0.30	-0.39	-0.38	-0.17	-0.15	-0.09	-0.16	-0.21	-0.46	-0.40	-0.11	-0.25
24H	-0.11	-0.22	-0.30	-0.29	-0.07	-0.01	0.05	0.01	-0.02	-0.28	-0.18	-0.06	-0.12
30H	-0.22	-0.41	-0.38	-0.34	-0.13	-0.04	0.15	0.04	-0.01	-0.29	-0.24	-0.21	-0.17
36H	-0.22	-0.52	-0.39	-0.41	-0.31	-0.10	0.11	-0.08	-0.06	-0.35	-0.27	-0.16	-0.23

표 3.2 LDAPS 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	0.44	0.40	0.43	0.40	0.40	0.38	0.35	0.37	0.43	0.49	0.58	0.56	0.43
12H	0.72	0.72	0.81	0.77	0.64	0.62	0.55	0.62	0.66	0.81	0.92	0.90	0.73
18H	0.88	0.82	0.97	0.97	0.83	0.78	0.68	0.77	0.82	1.02	1.09	0.99	0.89
24H	0.92	0.89	0.96	0.96	0.84	0.78	0.69	0.76	0.80	0.95	1.04	1.02	0.88
30H	1.14	1.17	1.09	1.10	1.01	0.91	0.78	0.85	0.92	1.07	1.16	1.17	1.03
36H	1.20	1.22	1.19	1.22	1.13	0.96	0.84	0.89	0.97	1.14	1.18	1.14	1.09

표 3.3 LDAPS 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	-4.17	-3.24	-1.84	-1.84	-0.89	-1.25	-0.37	-0.71	-2.23	-3.59	-5.10	-7.34	-2.71
12H	-8.29	-7.41	-4.08	-3.55	-1.99	-2.05	-1.98	-2.65	-3.48	-6.80	-8.07	-10.65	-5.08
18H	-10.73	-10.56	-6.68	-6.64	-5.08	-4.75	-4.75	-5.35	-7.50	-11.37	-11.19	-11.26	-7.99
24H	-7.92	-8.11	-5.48	-5.47	-4.21	-3.54	-4.47	-4.45	-5.31	-9.79	-8.49	-10.12	-6.45
30H	-12.57	-10.73	-5.12	-4.70	-3.47	-4.11	-3.61	-4.17	-3.83	-8.67	-10.37	-14.15	-7.12
36H	-10.33	-9.56	-2.12	-3.54	-4.12	-4.22	-4.94	-5.92	-4.28	-7.09	-7.25	-12.25	-6.30

표 3.4 LDAPS 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	4.84	4.19	3.15	3.21	2.94	2.93	2.28	2.65	3.69	6.27	8.49	9.26	4.49
12H	8.89	8.43	5.34	5.22	4.36	4.16	3.54	4.58	5.51	11.23	13.34	13.58	7.35
18H	11.71	11.65	8.74	8.16	7.21	6.66	6.62	7.52	9.18	15.53	16.41	14.58	10.33
24H	9.52	9.55	8.08	7.80	6.57	6.40	6.77	7.56	7.88	14.76	15.10	14.10	9.51
30H	15.20	12.70	8.70	8.18	7.33	7.79	7.11	8.73	7.67	14.47	16.99	17.99	11.07
36H	14.20	12.63	7.43	8.80	8.96	8.86	8.13	9.82	8.12	13.63	15.42	16.47	11.04

표 3.5 LDAPS 300hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	-0.14	-0.14	-0.29	-0.25	-0.31	-0.11	-0.02	-0.14	0.19	1.39	2.30	1.23	0.31
12H	-0.59	-0.28	-0.47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.12	-0.19	-0.26	0.29	1.65	2.76	1.50	0.32
18H	-0.43	-0.24	-0.39	-0.27	-0.01	-0.03	-0.30	-0.58	0.32	1.73	2.49	1.41	0.31
24H	-0.37	-0.32	-0.35	-0.21	0.09	-0.14	-0.32	-0.68	0.25	1.55	2.59	1.33	0.29
30H	-0.57	-0.59	-0.46	-0.47	-0.12	-0.10	-0.31	-0.77	0.35	1.51	2.68	1.58	0.23
36H	-0.81	-0.89	-0.32	-0.49	0.02	-0.23	-0.39	-0.68	0.37	1.44	2.58	1.16	0.15

표 3.6 LDAPS 300hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	1.04	1.22	1.44	1.42	1.53	1.89	1.51	1.70	1.89	3.94	5.72	3.88	2.26
12H	2.09	2.03	2.34	2.20	2.41	3.19	2.62	2.86	2.89	5.80	7.60	4.98	3.42
18H	3.28	3.16	3.46	3.49	3.71	4.51	3.56	3.71	4.10	6.42	7.70	5.47	4.38
24H	3.75	3.46	4.05	3.91	4.09	4.62	3.83	3.97	4.33	6.63	7.97	5.76	4.70
30H	4.67	4.21	4.93	4.69	5.41	5.77	4.72	4.64	4.93	7.05	8.16	6.26	5.45
36H	5.17	4.56	5.09	4.80	5.77	6.21	5.28	5.11	5.28	7.29	8.45	6.40	5.78

3.2 2018년 국지예보시스템 관측검증

3.2.1 존데자료를 이용한 LDAPS 관측검증

표 3.7 LDAPS 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	-0.19	-0.15	-0.03	-0.17	0.21	0.01	0.28	0.08	-0.06	-0.19	-0.35	-0.09	-0.05
12H	-0.47	-0.48	-0.40	-0.53	0.09	-0.10	0.18	-0.03	-0.20	-0.36	-0.48	-0.22	-0.25
18H	-0.50	-0.49	-0.45	-0.54	-0.02	-0.25	0.13	-0.10	-0.26	-0.54	-0.64	-0.15	-0.32
24H	-0.36	-0.36	-0.33	-0.44	0.09	-0.12	0.29	0.00	-0.09	-0.36	-0.42	-0.10	-0.18
30H	-0.47	-0.62	-0.42	-0.53	0.08	-0.17	0.36	0.02	-0.09	-0.43	-0.40	-0.33	-0.25
36H	-0.46	-0.72	-0.39	-0.60	-0.12	-0.24	0.35	-0.05	-0.10	-0.48	-0.49	-0.21	-0.29

표 3.8 LDAPS 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	1.24	1.04	1.15	1.22	1.13	1.00	1.03	1.00	0.88	1.07	1.18	1.33	1.11
12H	1.32	1.28	1.29	1.45	1.19	1.07	1.00	1.07	0.98	1.22	1.28	1.40	1.21
18H	1.37	1.26	1.38	1.46	1.24	1.13	1.06	1.06	1.06	1.36	1.35	1.35	1.26
24H	1.34	1.30	1.28	1.49	1.22	1.08	1.09	0.99	1.01	1.24	1.20	1.30	1.21
30H	1.54	1.50	1.38	1.64	1.35	1.15	1.12	1.08	1.05	1.30	1.23	1.36	1.31
36H	1.51	1.58	1.46	1.69	1.34	1.17	1.17	1.09	1.10	1.37	1.32	1.34	1.35

표 3.9 LDAPS 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	-8.10	-4.35	-1.66	-0.75	2.29	2.66	-2.16	-3.66	-5.45	-6.69	-10.86	-10.87	-4.13
12H	-12.29	-8.76	-4.14	-2.43	1.02	1.73	-3.87	-5.58	-6.51	-8.99	-12.76	-13.57	-6.35
18H	-14.86	-11.93	-6.99	-5.80	-2.17	-0.89	-6.65	-8.35	-10.54	-13.36	-15.67	-14.00	-9.27
24H	-11.92	-9.51	-5.61	-4.48	-1.45	0.42	-6.16	-7.48	-8.32	-11.59	-12.91	-12.72	-7.64
30H	-16.52	-12.18	-5.21	-3.96	-0.62	-0.22	-5.62	-7.16	-6.71	-10.50	-14.65	-16.87	-8.35
36H	-14.19	-10.78	-1.97	-2.74	-1.25	-0.22	-6.77	-8.99	-7.07	-8.86	-11.36	-15.28	-7.46

표 3.10 LDAPS 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	13.90	12.05	10.29	10.48	12.47	14.69	9.79	11.34	12.66	12.74	17.13	14.34	12.66
12H	16.70	14.33	11.00	10.81	12.46	14.84	10.60	12.24	13.47	13.81	17.46	16.35	13.67
18H	18.74	16.60	13.10	12.31	13.23	15.09	12.66	14.33	15.93	17.58	20.24	17.07	15.57
24H	16.83	15.05	12.68	12.35	12.77	14.95	12.39	13.76	14.82	16.19	17.88	16.13	14.65
30H	21.66	17.78	13.18	12.74	13.18	15.32	12.71	14.21	14.32	15.59	19.60	20.25	15.88
36H	20.25	17.39	12.07	13.02	13.90	15.76	13.47	15.75	14.58	14.79	17.22	19.00	15.60

표 3.11 LDAPS 300hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	-1.28	-0.94	-0.94	-0.63	-1.24	-0.90	-0.30	-0.65	-0.87	-0.75	-0.73	-0.87	-0.84
12H	-1.71	-0.99	-1.05	-0.62	-1.13	-0.92	-0.35	-0.73	-0.69	-0.76	-0.45	-0.63	-0.83
18H	-1.58	-1.01	-0.99	-0.74	-0.88	-0.76	-0.30	-1.15	-0.79	-0.59	-0.78	-0.74	-0.86
24H	-1.51	-1.14	-0.94	-0.69	-0.59	-0.86	-0.33	-1.19	-0.82	-0.91	-0.73	-0.89	-0.88
30H	-1.75	-1.30	-0.97	-0.91	-0.88	-0.72	-0.33	-1.30	-0.73	-1.04	-0.71	-0.52	-0.93
36H	-2.12	-1.66	-0.65	-0.83	-0.77	-0.82	-0.65	-1.17	-0.69	-1.05	-0.89	-0.85	-1.01

표 3.12 LDAPS 300hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	5.88	5.48	4.70	4.88	5.39	5.42	4.67	4.73	4.74	5.20	5.35	5.59	5.17
12H	6.26	5.66	4.89	4.84	5.24	5.54	4.91	4.97	4.86	4.75	4.68	5.61	5.18
18H	6.52	6.01	5.44	5.51	5.74	5.76	5.26	5.42	5.37	5.33	4.79	5.72	5.57
24H	6.72	6.17	5.71	5.74	5.79	6.00	5.26	5.51	5.50	5.48	4.89	5.88	5.72
30H	7.02	6.61	6.35	6.28	6.67	6.27	5.85	5.94	6.18	6.11	5.67	6.39	6.28
36H	7.43	6.97	6.54	6.33	6.88	6.84	6.18	6.09	5.99	6.36	6.13	6.57	6.53

3.2.2 지상관측 자료(AWS)를 이용한 국지예보시스템 관측검증

표 3.13 LDAPS 지상기온 Mean Error [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	-0.69	-0.48	-0.81	-0.40	-0.36	-0.62	-0.40	-0.46	-0.48	-0.49	-0.74	-0.62	-0.55
12H	0.17	0.01	-0.45	-0.53	-0.56	-0.50	-0.44	-0.33	-0.02	0.55	0.64	0.23	-0.10
18H	-0.43	-0.30	-0.80	-0.51	-0.58	-0.63	-0.45	-0.34	-0.16	0.10	-0.21	-0.24	-0.38
24H	0.32	0.07	-0.48	-0.59	-0.72	-0.61	-0.59	-0.26	0.21	0.98	1.01	0.43	-0.02
30H	-0.33	-0.37	-0.89	-0.56	-0.61	-0.73	-0.60	-0.30	0.04	0.27	-0.01	-0.14	-0.35
36H	0.36	-0.07	-0.50	-0.66	-0.71	-0.64	-0.68	-0.24	0.38	1.09	1.19	0.53	0.00

표 3.14 LDAPS 지상기온 RMSE [℃] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	2.35	2.28	2.32	2.34	1.97	1.98	1.75	1.83	1.78	2.22	2.80	2.42	2.17
12H	2.10	2.06	2.00	1.97	1.75	1.64	1.49	1.49	1.56	2.00	2.19	2.21	1.87
18H	2.16	2.18	2.30	2.38	2.10	1.95	1.86	1.96	1.83	2.19	2.32	2.16	2.12
24H	2.17	2.17	2.02	2.04	1.90	1.71	1.63	1.57	1.65	2.23	2.34	2.27	1.98
30H	2.31	2.37	2.46	2.56	2.23	2.08	2.00	1.98	1.88	2.37	2.51	2.29	2.25
36H	2.29	2.35	2.09	2.11	1.92	1.80	1.73	1.62	1.69	2.36	2.52	2.34	2.07

표 3.15 LDAPS 지상 상대습도 Mean Error [%] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	6.39	4.04	3.16	1.48	-0.49	-0.31	-1.83	-0.50	-1.97	0.42	4.37	3.59	1.53
12H	3.39	2.25	2.67	3.31	0.82	-0.03	-1.43	-0.74	-4.59	-5.26	-1.98	-0.25	-0.15
18H	5.59	3.61	4.19	3.06	1.00	0.14	-1.63	-0.62	-2.72	-0.96	2.62	2.01	1.36
24H	3.25	2.89	3.76	4.29	1.69	0.61	-1.08	-0.70	-5.18	-6.40	-2.95	-0.58	-0.03
30H	5.98	3.88	5.18	3.98	1.31	0.85	-1.07	-0.65	-3.07	-1.87	1.82	2.11	1.54
36H	2.94	3.50	4.27	5.24	2.03	1.00	-0.90	-0.66	-5.63	-7.54	-3.16	-0.50	0.05

표 3.16 LDAPS 지상 상대습도 RMSE [%] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	14.51	13.98	12.64	13.60	12.09	11.37	9.95	9.89	10.81	12.19	15.39	14.52	12.58
12H	15.63	16.20	13.88	14.41	12.10	11.38	10.07	9.77	12.24	13.79	14.84	15.79	13.34
18H	14.59	14.04	12.95	13.56	11.95	11.00	10.43	10.55	11.43	12.10	14.17	15.16	12.66
24H	16.01	16.39	14.13	14.78	12.50	11.09	10.44	9.95	12.81	14.51	15.09	16.76	13.71
30H	15.69	14.74	13.61	14.14	12.85	11.27	10.73	10.84	11.88	12.46	14.97	15.78	13.25
36H	16.64	16.77	14.54	15.15	12.87	11.12	10.55	10.15	13.16	15.64	15.37	17.04	14.08

표 3.17 LDAPS 지상 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	1.35	1.30	1.23	1.24	1.23	0.91	1.07	1.03	1.19	1.29	1.03	1.37	1.19
12H	1.57	1.54	1.19	1.12	1.17	0.86	0.94	1.00	1.23	1.34	1.16	1.42	1.21
18H	1.56	1.55	1.22	1.23	1.35	0.96	1.07	1.15	1.26	1.42	1.15	1.47	1.28
24H	1.70	1.71	1.23	1.23	1.23	0.94	0.98	1.18	1.32	1.45	1.22	1.48	1.31
30H	1.64	1.69	1.23	1.31	1.39	1.02	1.13	1.27	1.35	1.46	1.15	1.44	1.34
36H	1.70	1.74	1.24	1.31	1.26	0.99	1.04	1.27	1.39	1.52	1.23	1.49	1.35

표 3.18 LDAPS 지상 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 관측검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
6H	2.32	2.25	2.24	2.15	2.12	1.73	1.79	1.84	1.93	2.17	1.9	2.26	2.06
12H	2.38	2.36	2.14	2.08	2.06	1.69	1.7	1.84	1.93	2.2	1.81	2.23	2.04
18H	2.47	2.44	2.19	2.14	2.22	1.79	1.82	1.99	1.99	2.27	1.93	2.34	2.13
24H	2.53	2.56	2.17	2.17	2.12	1.78	1.75	2.09	2.04	2.35	1.87	2.29	2.14
30H	2.59	2.59	2.23	2.26	2.28	1.86	1.91	2.2	2.09	2.42	1.97	2.32	2.23
36H	2.56	2.61	2.19	2.26	2.16	1.86	1.89	2.27	2.1	2.39	1.89	2.29	2.21

3.2.3 강수검증 (한반도 76개 ASOS 지점 관측자료)

표 3.19 LDAPS 한반도 강수 Threat Score

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL	MONTH	06H		12H		18H		24H		30H		36H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.51	0.54	0.46	0.48	0.41	0.45	0.48	Jan.	0.53		0.39		0.37		0.24		0.38		0.21		0.33
Feb.	0.57	0.46	0.5	0.44	0.49	0.44	0.48	Feb.	0.37		0.81		0.51		0.84		0.3		0.74		0.59
Mar.	0.74	0.62	0.68	0.58	0.68	0.57	0.64	Mar.	0.58		0.5		0.47		0.36		0.38		0.35		0.44
Apr.	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.59	0.56	0.58	0.6	Apr.	0.61		0.48		0.61		0.46		0.48		0.44		0.51
May.	0.1	0.11	0.11	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.12	May.	0.03		0.08		0.03		0.07		0.03		0.06		0.05
Jun.	0.43	0.42	0.42	0.44	0.42	0.48	0.43	Jun.	0.48		0.46		0.44		0.41		0.37		0.42		0.43
Jul.	0.46	0.36	0.36	0.37	0.37	0.32	0.37	Jul.	0.39		0.3		0.33		0.29		0.29		0.28		0.31
Aug.	0.51	0.43	0.42	0.37	0.42	0.4	0.42	Aug.	0.4		0.24		0.32		0.28		0.29		0.26		0.3
Sep.	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.38	0.33	0.37	0.37	Sep.	0.43		0.34		0.32		0.31		0.27		0.34		0.34
Oct.	0.66	0.59	0.64	0.58	0.6	0.52	0.6	Oct.	0.64		0.73		0.6		0.62		0.56		0.6		0.62
Nov.	0.43	0.41	0.42	0.31	0.33	0.31	0.37	Nov.	0.46		0.61		0.33		0.57		0.16		0.5		0.44
Dec.	0.36	0.43	0.27	0.38	0.28	0.38	0.35	Dec.	0.07		0.35		0.12		0.34		0.11		0.54		0.35
TOTAL	0.46	0.42	0.41	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.41	TOTAL	0.41		0.38		0.36		0.34		0.3		0.34		0.35
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL	MONTH	06H		12H		18H		24H		30H		36H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.2	0.2	0.33	0.4	0.13	0.2	0.23	Jan.	0		0		-		0		-		-		0
Feb.	0.39	0.58	0.48	0.68	0.32	0.56	0.55	Feb.	0.4		0.13		0.5		0.18		0.1		0.14		0.21
Mar.	0.42	0.22	0.38	0.14	0.32	0.1	0.28	Mar.	0.32		0.09		0.26		0		0.15		0.03		0.16
Apr.	0.32	0.19	0.22	0.17	0.2	0.19	0.21	Apr.	0.18		0.05		0.07		0.06		0.08		0.11		0.09
May.	0.01	0.06	0	0.04	0	0.03	0.02	May.	0		0.01		0		0		0		0		0
Jun.	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.4	0.34	0.33	0.39	Jun.	0.41		0.4		0.38		0.41		0.29		0.36		0.38
Jul.	0.36	0.17	0.21	0.14	0.19	0.23	0.22	Jul.	0.26		0.1		0.11		0.07		0.13		0.14		0.14
Aug.	0.27	0.22	0.22	0.21	0.21	0.2	0.22	Aug.	0.24		0.16		0.13		0.15		0.16		0.17		0.17
Sep.	0.21	0.24	0.24	0.14	0.22	0.17	0.2	Sep.	0.07		0.09		0.09		0.1		0.16		0.09		0.1
Oct.	0.54	0.54	0.46	0.5	0.4	0.52	0.49	Oct.	0.43		0.51		0.3		0.33		0.23		0.39		0.36
Nov.	0.29	0.34	0.1	0.51	0	0.48	0.34	Nov.	0.2		0.05		0		0.04		0		0.04		0.05
Dec.	0	0.07	0	0.05	0	0.15	0.09	Dec.	0		0		0		0		0		0		0
TOTAL	0.31	0.27	0.26	0.25	0.23	0.25	0.26	TOTAL	0.25		0.21		0.18		0.18		0.17		0.2		0.2
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Feb.	0	-	0	0	0	0	0
Mar.	0	-	0	-	0	-	0
Apr.	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.05
May.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jun.	0.11	0.42	0.1	0.27	0.08	0.27	0.23
Jul.	0.09	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.03	0	0.04
Aug.	0.06	0.03	0.13	0.09	0.15	0.1	0.09
Sep.	0	0	0.13	0	0.03	0.05	0.03
Oct.	0.28	0.29	0.21	0.29	0.09	0.33	0.25
Nov.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dec.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
TOTAL	0.08	0.15	0.11	0.14	0.08	0.16	0.12

표 3.20 LDAPS 한반도 강수 Equitable Threat Score

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL	MONTH	06H		12H		18H		24H		30H		36H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.47	0.49	0.41	0.42	0.36	0.4	0.42	Jan.	0.53		0.38		0.36		0.23		0.37		0.21		0.33
Feb.	0.54	0.43	0.47	0.4	0.45	0.4	0.45	Feb.	0.36		0.81		0.51		0.83		0.29		0.74		0.59
Mar.	0.7	0.56	0.64	0.52	0.63	0.51	0.59	Mar.	0.56		0.48		0.45		0.34		0.36		0.32		0.41
Apr.	0.58	0.58	0.56	0.54	0.5	0.52	0.54	Apr.	0.59		0.46		0.58		0.43		0.45		0.41		0.48
May.	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.02	May.	0		0.05		-0.01		0.04		-0.01		0.02		0.02
Jun.	0.38	0.36	0.36	0.39	0.37	0.42	0.38	Jun.	0.46		0.44		0.42		0.39		0.35		0.4		0.41
Jul.	0.41	0.3	0.3	0.32	0.31	0.27	0.32	Jul.	0.37		0.28		0.31		0.27		0.27		0.25		0.29
Aug.	0.43	0.35	0.34	0.29	0.34	0.31	0.34	Aug.	0.37		0.21		0.28		0.25		0.25		0.22		0.26
Sep.	0.35	0.31	0.3	0.31	0.28	0.3	0.31	Sep.	0.42		0.32		0.3		0.28		0.25		0.32		0.31
Oct.	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.53	0.56	0.48	0.56	Oct.	0.62		0.72		0.58		0.61		0.54		0.58		0.6
Nov.	0.4	0.37	0.39	0.27	0.29	0.28	0.33	Nov.	0.45		0.61		0.32		0.56		0.15		0.49		0.43
Dec.	0.32	0.38	0.23	0.34	0.24	0.33	0.31	Dec.	0.06		0.34		0.12		0.33		0.11		0.53		0.35
TOTAL	0.4	0.36	0.36	0.34	0.34	0.33	0.36	TOTAL	0.39		0.36		0.34		0.32		0.28		0.32		0.33
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL	MONTH	06H		12H		18H		24H		30H		36H		TOTAL
Jan.	0.2	0.2	0.33	0.4	0.12	0.2	0.23	Jan.	0		0		-		0		-		-		0
Feb.	0.39	0.58	0.47	0.68	0.32	0.56	0.54	Feb.	0.4		0.12		0.5		0.18		0.1		0.14		0.21
Mar.	0.41	0.21	0.37	0.14	0.31	0.09	0.27	Mar.	0.32		0.09		0.25		0		0.14		0.03		0.15
Apr.	0.31	0.18	0.21	0.16	0.19	0.18	0.2	Apr.	0.18		0.05		0.07		0.06		0.08		0.11		0.09
May.	0	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	0.01	May.	0		0.01		0		0		0		0		0
Jun.	0.4	0.4	0.42	0.39	0.33	0.32	0.37	Jun.	0.4		0.39		0.38		0.4		0.28		0.35		0.37
Jul.	0.34	0.16	0.2	0.13	0.18	0.22	0.21	Jul.	0.25		0.09		0.1		0.07		0.12		0.13		0.13
Aug.	0.26	0.2	0.21	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.2	Aug.	0.23		0.15		0.12		0.13		0.15		0.15		0.15
Sep.	0.2	0.24	0.23	0.13	0.21	0.16	0.19	Sep.	0.07		0.09		0.08		0.09		0.16		0.08		0.1
Oct.	0.53	0.53	0.45	0.49	0.39	0.51	0.48	Oct.	0.42		0.5		0.3		0.32		0.22		0.38		0.35
Nov.	0.29	0.34	0.1	0.5	0	0.48	0.34	Nov.	0.2		0.05		0		0.04		0		0.04		0.05
Dec.	0	0.07	0	0.04	0	0.14	0.09	Dec.	0		0		0		0		0		0		0
TOTAL	0.3	0.26	0.25	0.24	0.22	0.24	0.25	TOTAL	0.25		0.2		0.18		0.18		0.16		0.19		0.19
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Feb.	0	-	0	0	0	0	0
Mar.	0	-	0	-	0	-	0
Apr.	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.05
May.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jun.	0.1	0.41	0.09	0.26	0.08	0.27	0.23
Jul.	0.09	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.03	0	0.04
Aug.	0.06	0.02	0.13	0.08	0.14	0.1	0.09
Sep.	0	0	0.13	0	0.03	0.04	0.03
Oct.	0.28	0.29	0.21	0.29	0.08	0.32	0.25
Nov.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dec.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
TOTAL	0.08	0.15	0.11	0.14	0.08	0.15	0.12

표 3.21 LDAPS 한반도 강수 BIAS

Threshold = 0.1 mm								Threshold = 5 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL	MONTH	06H		12H		18H		24H		30H		36H		TOTAL
Jan.	1.37	1.39	1.39	1.42	1.42	1.39	1.4	Jan.	1.12		1.1		1.29		0.79		1.26		0.67		0.99
Feb.	1.26	1.2	1.13	1.29	1.24	1.52	1.27	Feb.	0.95		0.91		0.78		0.93		0.65		1.09		0.89
Mar.	1.02	0.9	0.92	0.91	0.95	0.92	0.94	Mar.	0.94		0.74		0.87		0.81		1		0.93		0.88
Apr.	0.8	0.81	0.75	0.77	0.81	0.85	0.8	Apr.	0.81		0.61		0.81		0.65		0.81		0.73		0.73
May.	0.9	0.93	0.95	0.98	1	1.04	0.97	May.	0.95		0.98		1.07		1.16		1.08		1.1		1.06
Jun.	0.7	0.65	0.72	0.71	0.81	0.86	0.74	Jun.	0.79		0.69		0.84		0.71		0.9		0.95		0.81
Jul.	0.73	0.63	0.71	0.69	0.74	0.69	0.7	Jul.	0.85		0.61		0.71		0.65		0.9		0.67		0.73
Aug.	0.76	0.61	0.67	0.64	0.72	0.75	0.69	Aug.	0.7		0.57		0.64		0.68		0.78		0.78		0.69
Sep.	0.59	0.56	0.54	0.59	0.56	0.58	0.57	Sep.	0.67		0.61		0.66		0.77		0.59		0.79		0.68
Oct.	0.91	0.85	0.87	0.84	0.82	0.82	0.85	Oct.	0.89		0.96		0.77		0.83		0.77		0.84		0.84
Nov.	0.78	0.69	0.63	0.61	0.65	0.7	0.68	Nov.	1.11		0.86		0.74		0.84		0.49		0.95		0.83
Dec.	1.11	0.95	0.96	0.93	1.01	1	0.99	Dec.	1.45		0.54		0.85		0.53		1.05		1		0.74
TOTAL	0.87	0.81	0.82	0.83	0.86	0.88	0.85	TOTAL	0.84		0.72		0.79		0.77		0.84		0.86		0.8
Threshold = 15 mm								Threshold = 25 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL	MONTH	06H		12H		18H		24H		30H		36H		TOTAL
Jan.	1.4	3	1.4	1.33	0.8	1	1.42	Jan.	-		-		-		-		-		-		-
Feb.	0.68	0.81	0.63	1.12	0.53	1.05	0.87	Feb.	0.56		0.8		0.67		1.6		0.22		1.4		0.89
Mar.	0.82	0.67	0.86	0.76	1.17	0.69	0.85	Mar.	0.58		0.41		0.58		0.71		1		0.82		0.69
Apr.	0.77	0.35	0.85	0.56	0.81	0.67	0.66	Apr.	0.34		0.24		0.62		0.53		0.83		0.5		0.5
May.	0.9	1.16	1.14	1.26	1.04	0.96	1.08	May.	1.19		1.32		1.08		1.13		1.04		1.03		1.13
Jun.	0.79	0.65	1.01	0.79	1.05	1.04	0.88	Jun.	0.88		0.75		1.07		0.87		1.09		1.01		0.93
Jul.	0.98	0.79	0.65	0.68	0.92	0.88	0.82	Jul.	0.96		0.82		0.55		0.64		0.97		0.96		0.82
Aug.	0.7	0.52	0.68	0.65	0.91	0.8	0.7	Aug.	0.79		0.56		0.69		0.67		0.95		0.81		0.74
Sep.	0.56	0.7	0.72	0.8	0.6	0.84	0.7	Sep.	0.2		0.84		0.36		1		0.66		0.67		0.58
Oct.	0.95	1.16	0.91	1.12	0.87	0.96	0.99	Oct.	0.83		1.07		1.08		1.26		1.17		1.14		1.1
Nov.	1.45	0.8	0.65	1.02	0.35	0.95	0.89	Nov.	1		0.82		0.67		1.18		0.33		1.27		1
Dec.	2	0.55	1	0.15	0.5	1.75	0.85	Dec.	0		0		0		0		0		3.5		0.78
TOTAL	0.82	0.72	0.82	0.81	0.89	0.89	0.83	TOTAL	0.73		0.74		0.74		0.86		0.94		0.92		0.82
Threshold = 50 mm
MONTH	06H	12H	18H	24H	30H	36H	TOTAL
Jan.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Feb.	0.33	-	0	-	0	-	0.33
Mar.	0	-	0.43	-	0	-	0.14
Apr.	1	2	3	2	4	2	2.33
May.	1.2	1	0.8	0.25	0.2	1.25	0.78
Jun.	1.47	1.34	1	1.14	0.53	1.28	1.16
Jul.	0.92	1.13	0.54	0.53	1.46	0.93	0.92
Aug.	0.84	0.44	0.53	0.65	0.91	1.02	0.73
Sep.	0.05	0.62	0.18	1.15	0.45	0.77	0.46
Oct.	1	0.43	0.81	0.89	1.38	1.04	0.89
Nov.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dec.	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
TOTAL	0.76	0.73	0.57	0.83	0.81	1.06	0.8

6.4 앙상블예측시스템

6.4.1 2018년 앙상블예측시스템 분석검증

표 6.4.1 EPSG 북반구 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	7.82	7.80	6.96	6.78	6.69	6.410	6.17	6.09	5.95	6.11	6.510	7.19	6.71
48H	14.09	13.86	13.06	12.47	12.47	11.49	11.22	10.69	10.48	11.08	12.10	13.13	12.18
72H	22.42	22.23	21.03	20.22	19.68	17.89	16.69	15.95	16.59	17.32	19.89	20.63	19.21
96H	32.16	32.42	29.77	29.54	28.56	25.96	23.65	22.31	24.18	25.74	29.69	29.14	27.76
120H	42.61	43.85	40.14	38.7	39.10	35.32	31.00	29.76	33.21	34.87	40.63	37.83	37.25
144H	53.87	54.98	50.81	47.95	49.34	44.02	38.13	36.88	43.13	43.42	52.29	49.22	47.00
168H	64.31	66.45	60.39	56.71	58.93	51.39	44.12	43.54	53.39	51.86	62.67	60.21	56.16
192H	73.04	74.23	70.71	63.87	66.45	57.41	49.31	49.14	61.93	59.64	71.93	69.16	63.90
216H	80.28	81.98	78.54	71.28	73.16	61.95	53.79	53.15	68.62	66.53	78.72	75.51	70.29
240H	85.36	88.84	84.18	77.58	77.92	65.31	56.76	56.95	72.66	72.65	83.16	80.17	75.13
264H	90.51	94.49	88.73	82.30	82.12	67.55	59.46	59.88	75.64	78.20	87.60	84.33	79.23
288H	96.43	100.79	91.71	85.53	84.27	69.50	61.27	62.18	77.76	81.55	91.52	87.67	82.52

표 6.4.2 EPSG 북반구 500hPa 고도 SPREAD [m] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	7.20	7.18	7.22	7.30	7.42	6.12	5.68	5.21	5.67	5.99	6.10	6.82	6.49
48H	12.39	12.11	12.32	12.39	12.78	10.54	9.51	8.91	9.75	10.10	10.47	11.57	11.07
72H	19.09	19.03	19.32	19.14	19.80	16.42	14.55	14.14	15.51	15.75	16.59	17.68	17.25
96H	27.12	27.91	27.94	27.19	27.95	23.39	20.62	20.52	22.72	22.79	24.34	25.25	24.81
120H	36.47	38.07	37.74	36.26	36.53	30.89	27.30	27.46	30.77	31.10	33.74	33.98	33.36
144H	46.54	48.56	48.08	45.62	45.37	38.31	33.83	34.37	39.22	40.14	43.70	43.35	42.26
168H	56.26	58.59	57.83	54.66	53.66	45.15	39.54	40.31	47.40	49.55	53.24	53.05	50.77
192H	65.37	67.72	66.48	62.58	60.76	50.75	44.43	45.06	54.39	58.13	61.99	62.20	58.32
216H	73.45	76.32	74.27	69.34	66.43	55.44	48.79	49.01	60.12	65.80	69.97	69.75	64.89
240H	80.29	83.47	80.87	74.66	70.26	59.27	52.10	52.46	64.56	71.97	76.95	76.04	70.24
264H	85.39	89.38	86.19	78.82	73.29	62.06	54.78	55.07	67.91	76.72	82.71	81.46	74.48
288H	89.61	93.86	89.89	82.55	75.44	64.52	56.91	57.11	70.58	80.29	87.64	86.10	77.88

표 6.4.3 EPSG 북반구 500hPa 지위고도 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
48H	0.99	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
72H	0.98	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
96H	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.95	0.94	0.96	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.96
120H	0.93	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.90	0.89	0.91	0.90	0.92	0.93	0.92	0.93	0.92
144H	0.89	0.91	0.90	0.88	0.84	0.82	0.87	0.83	0.87	0.89	0.86	0.87	0.87
168H	0.83	0.87	0.86	0.83	0.76	0.74	0.82	0.75	0.80	0.85	0.80	0.80	0.81
192H	0.77	0.84	0.80	0.77	0.68	0.66	0.76	0.67	0.71	0.79	0.72	0.73	0.74
216H	0.71	0.80	0.74	0.69	0.59	0.58	0.71	0.60	0.63	0.73	0.66	0.66	0.68
240H	0.66	0.75	0.68	0.61	0.52	0.51	0.67	0.53	0.57	0.67	0.61	0.61	0.62
264H	0.60	0.71	0.63	0.55	0.45	0.45	0.63	0.46	0.51	0.60	0.55	0.55	0.56
288H	0.53	0.65	0.59	0.49	0.40	0.40	0.60	0.40	0.46	0.54	0.49	0.50	0.50

표 6.4.4 EPSG 북반구 500hPa 지위고도 CRPSS [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.93	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.91	0.90	0.92	0.93	0.94	0.93	0.93
48H	0.88	0.90	0.89	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.87	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.87
72H	0.81	0.84	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.76	0.76	0.75	0.80	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.80
96H	0.73	0.76	0.75	0.71	0.69	0.67	0.67	0.66	0.72	0.74	0.72	0.72	0.71
120H	0.64	0.68	0.67	0.62	0.58	0.55	0.58	0.55	0.62	0.65	0.62	0.64	0.62
144H	0.54	0.60	0.58	0.53	0.47	0.43	0.48	0.45	0.51	0.56	0.51	0.53	0.52
168H	0.45	0.51	0.50	0.44	0.36	0.33	0.40	0.35	0.39	0.47	0.41	0.43	0.42
192H	0.37	0.45	0.41	0.36	0.28	0.25	0.33	0.26	0.29	0.39	0.31	0.33	0.34
216H	0.30	0.38	0.33	0.28	0.20	0.19	0.26	0.20	0.21	0.32	0.24	0.26	0.26
240H	0.25	0.33	0.28	0.21	0.14	0.14	0.22	0.14	0.16	0.25	0.20	0.21	0.21
264H	0.19	0.28	0.23	0.16	0.09	0.10	0.18	0.09	0.13	0.20	0.15	0.17	0.16
288H	0.14	0.23	0.20	0.13	0.07	0.08	0.16	0.05	0.10	0.16	0.11	0.13	0.13

표 6.4.5 EPSG 북반구 500hPa 지위고도 +1 표준편차 이상 BSS [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.93	0.94	0.93	0.90	0.89	0.87	0.88	0.85	0.87	0.92	0.93	0.92	0.90
48H	0.88	0.90	0.88	0.85	0.83	0.80	0.80	0.75	0.81	0.88	0.88	0.86	0.84
72H	0.83	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.77	0.74	0.73	0.69	0.76	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.78
96H	0.75	0.78	0.77	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.67	0.61	0.70	0.74	0.74	0.73	0.71
120H	0.67	0.70	0.69	0.61	0.58	0.55	0.57	0.52	0.62	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.62
144H	0.57	0.63	0.60	0.50	0.46	0.45	0.48	0.44	0.52	0.57	0.55	0.55	0.53
168H	0.48	0.54	0.53	0.39	0.35	0.36	0.41	0.37	0.42	0.49	0.44	0.44	0.44
192H	0.39	0.48	0.45	0.31	0.25	0.28	0.35	0.29	0.33	0.40	0.35	0.35	0.35
216H	0.31	0.42	0.39	0.23	0.16	0.22	0.29	0.21	0.24	0.32	0.27	0.29	0.28
240H	0.26	0.36	0.33	0.17	0.10	0.16	0.24	0.15	0.19	0.26	0.21	0.22	0.22
264H	0.20	0.31	0.27	0.12	0.05	0.12	0.20	0.11	0.15	0.19	0.16	0.18	0.17
288H	0.14	0.26	0.24	0.08	0.01	0.08	0.17	0.07	0.10	0.13	0.12	0.13	0.13

표 6.4.6 EPSG 북반구 850hPa 기온 평균제곱근오차 [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.02	0.99	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.81	0.77	0.73	0.71	0.75	0.89	0.97	0.87
48H	1.37	1.33	1.28	1.26	1.26	1.13	1.07	1.01	0.99	1.04	1.23	1.31	1.19
72H	1.68	1.63	1.61	1.6	1.58	1.42	1.33	1.27	1.26	1.31	1.52	1.63	1.49
96H	2.08	1.98	1.98	1.94	1.95	1.73	1.63	1.56	1.56	1.61	1.87	1.94	1.82
120H	2.47	2.37	2.42	2.30	2.35	2.07	1.93	1.86	1.89	1.94	2.27	2.26	2.18
144H	2.87	2.81	2.85	2.69	2.78	2.43	2.23	2.15	2.25	2.27	2.66	2.63	2.55
168H	3.30	3.25	3.25	3.03	3.18	2.72	2.51	2.40	2.60	2.59	3.03	3.01	2.91
192H	3.69	3.55	3.63	3.34	3.51	2.95	2.73	2.61	2.88	2.88	3.41	3.34	3.21
216H	3.97	3.86	3.93	3.62	3.76	3.16	2.88	2.76	3.13	3.16	3.74	3.58	3.46
240H	4.17	4.08	4.18	3.88	3.93	3.32	2.99	2.89	3.27	3.41	3.94	3.76	3.65
264H	4.32	4.26	4.35	4.08	4.07	3.42	3.11	2.99	3.38	3.61	4.06	3.93	3.80
288H	4.50	4.45	4.47	4.20	4.14	3.49	3.18	3.06	3.47	3.74	4.15	4.08	3.91

표 6.4.7 EPSG 북반구 850hPa 기온 SPREAD [℃] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.82	0.78	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.65	0.63	0.59	0.61	0.62	0.68	0.75	0.70
48H	0.99	0.96	0.98	0.95	0.97	0.85	0.80	0.76	0.77	0.78	0.84	0.91	0.88
72H	1.26	1.23	1.27	1.22	1.26	1.10	1.02	0.98	1.01	1.00	1.10	1.17	1.14
96H	1.59	1.59	1.65	1.56	1.60	1.40	1.29	1.26	1.30	1.30	1.42	1.48	1.45
120H	1.98	2.01	2.07	1.94	1.97	1.73	1.59	1.55	1.62	1.63	1.80	1.84	1.81
144H	2.39	2.44	2.51	2.33	2.37	2.07	1.89	1.84	1.95	1.98	2.21	2.22	2.18
168H	2.78	2.84	2.93	2.70	2.74	2.40	2.17	2.10	2.25	2.32	2.61	2.59	2.54
192H	3.13	3.19	3.31	3.04	3.04	2.65	2.40	2.33	2.52	2.64	2.93	2.92	2.84
216H	3.43	3.48	3.64	3.32	3.25	2.86	2.60	2.51	2.74	2.93	3.19	3.19	3.10
240H	3.65	3.71	3.91	3.54	3.41	3.04	2.77	2.65	2.93	3.16	3.41	3.43	3.30
264H	3.83	3.91	4.12	3.71	3.52	3.17	2.89	2.77	3.08	3.33	3.61	3.62	3.46
288H	3.97	4.08	4.27	3.87	3.61	3.28	3.00	2.86	3.18	3.47	3.77	3.80	3.60

표 6.4.8 EPSG 북반구 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
48H	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.96
72H	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.94	0.93	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.94
96H	0.92	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.92	0.93	0.91	0.91	0.91
120H	0.88	0.90	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.88	0.89	0.86	0.87	0.87
144H	0.84	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.78	0.80	0.82	0.80	0.83	0.84	0.80	0.82	0.82
168H	0.78	0.79	0.77	0.77	0.70	0.74	0.77	0.75	0.76	0.79	0.73	0.75	0.76
192H	0.71	0.75	0.71	0.70	0.61	0.69	0.72	0.70	0.70	0.74	0.64	0.68	0.70
216H	0.65	0.70	0.64	0.64	0.53	0.63	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.67	0.55	0.62	0.63
240H	0.60	0.65	0.58	0.56	0.47	0.59	0.64	0.62	0.59	0.60	0.47	0.56	0.58
264H	0.56	0.61	0.53	0.49	0.41	0.55	0.61	0.58	0.55	0.53	0.42	0.50	0.53
288H	0.49	0.57	0.48	0.44	0.37	0.52	0.58	0.56	0.51	0.48	0.38	0.45	0.49

표 6.4.9 EPSG 북반구 850hPa 기온 CRPSS [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.81	0.82	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.79	0.78	0.78	0.82	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.80
48H	0.74	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.71	0.71	0.69	0.70	0.74	0.75	0.72	0.71	0.73
72H	0.68	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.63	0.62	0.62	0.68	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.66
96H	0.61	0.65	0.62	0.59	0.56	0.56	0.54	0.54	0.61	0.63	0.58	0.58	0.59
120H	0.54	0.58	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.48	0.46	0.46	0.53	0.56	0.50	0.51	0.51
144H	0.46	0.51	0.46	0.44	0.38	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.44	0.48	0.41	0.43	0.43
168H	0.38	0.43	0.39	0.37	0.29	0.31	0.31	0.30	0.35	0.41	0.33	0.35	0.35
192H	0.31	0.37	0.32	0.30	0.22	0.25	0.25	0.24	0.28	0.34	0.24	0.27	0.28
216H	0.26	0.31	0.25	0.23	0.15	0.19	0.20	0.19	0.21	0.28	0.16	0.22	0.22
240H	0.21	0.27	0.20	0.17	0.10	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.17	0.22	0.11	0.17	0.17
264H	0.17	0.24	0.16	0.12	0.07	0.12	0.13	0.12	0.14	0.17	0.08	0.13	0.14
288H	0.13	0.20	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.10	0.11	0.09	0.12	0.14	0.06	0.10	0.11

표 6.4.10 EPSG 북반구 850hPa 기온 +1 표준편차 이상 BSS [무차원] 분석검증

FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.78	0.80	0.81	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.75	0.76	0.78	0.76	0.78	0.77
48H	0.70	0.74	0.74	0.70	0.69	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.68	0.70	0.67	0.69	0.69
72H	0.64	0.68	0.68	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.58	0.57	0.61	0.63	0.61	0.61	0.62
96H	0.57	0.62	0.61	0.56	0.53	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.54	0.57	0.53	0.54	0.55
120H	0.50	0.56	0.55	0.49	0.45	0.44	0.43	0.40	0.47	0.49	0.45	0.48	0.48
144H	0.43	0.48	0.47	0.41	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.32	0.39	0.42	0.37	0.40	0.40
168H	0.35	0.41	0.41	0.35	0.28	0.30	0.30	0.25	0.31	0.35	0.30	0.31	0.33
192H	0.27	0.35	0.34	0.28	0.21	0.24	0.24	0.20	0.24	0.28	0.21	0.24	0.26
216H	0.21	0.29	0.29	0.22	0.15	0.19	0.19	0.15	0.18	0.23	0.14	0.19	0.20
240H	0.18	0.25	0.25	0.16	0.10	0.15	0.15	0.11	0.14	0.17	0.09	0.14	0.16
264H	0.15	0.22	0.21	0.12	0.06	0.12	0.12	0.08	0.11	0.12	0.06	0.10	0.12
288H	0.10	0.19	0.17	0.08	0.04	0.09	0.10	0.06	0.08	0.09	0.05	0.08	0.09