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2017년 기상청 전지구예보모델 검증결과

【 2018. 11. 20. / 수치모델링센터 미래수치기술팀 】

1) 전지구예측시스템 성능변화 추세

가) 500hPa 고도장의 RMSE 성능변화 시계열

나) 850hPa 기온의 RMSE 성능변화 시계열

다) 250hPa 풍속의 RMSE 성능변화 시계열

2) 전지구예측시스템 분석 검증

다) 북반구 분석 검증

표 1.1.1 GDAPS 북반구 해면기압(MSLP) Mean Error [hPa] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.06	- 0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	- 0.09	- 0.15	- 0.14	- 0.09	- 0.11	- 0.07	- 0.06	- 0.06
48H	- 0.10	- 0.09	0.01	- 0.02	- 0.09	- 0.24	- 0.32	- 0.31	- 0.25	- 0.23	- 0.12	- 0.10	- 0.15
72H	- 0.12	- 0.08	0.03	- 0.03	- 0.11	- 0.31	- 0.39	- 0.41	- 0.36	- 0.31	- 0.11	- 0.10	- 0.19
96H	- 0.12	- 0.03	0.12	0.01	- 0.11	- 0.36	- 0.42	- 0.50	- 0.46	- 0.39	- 0.14	- 0.06	- 0.21
120H	- 0.09	0.00	0.19	0.04	- 0.06	- 0.34	- 0.44	- 0.59	- 0.54	- 0.50	- 0.20	- 0.13	- 0.22
144H	- 0.08	0.08	0.25	0.01	- 0.05	- 0.32	- 0.47	- 0.66	- 0.63	- 0.61	- 0.26	- 0.20	- 0.24
168H	- 0.04	0.18	0.34	- 0.06	- 0.03	- 0.33	- 0.46	- 0.71	- 0.69	- 0.75	- 0.41	- 0.29	- 0.27
192H	- 0.02	0.27	0.44	0.01	0.00	- 0.30	- 0.40	- 0.72	- 0.66	- 0.90	- 0.62	- 0.37	- 0.27
216H	0.06	0.25	0.49	0.08	0.04	- 0.23	- 0.37	- 0.65	- 0.71	- 0.95	- 0.83	- 0.52	- 0.28
240H	- 0.01	0.27	0.53	0.12	0.08	- 0.23	- 0.33	- 0.56	- 0.84	- 1.07	- 0.92	- 0.65	- 0.30
264H	- 0.10	0.28	0.59	0.24	0.10	- 0.18	- 0.26	- 0.45	- 0.94	- 1.15	- 1.05	- 0.68	- 0.30
288H	- 0.13	0.28	0.66	0.36	0.22	- 0.13	- 0.20	- 0.36	- 1.04	- 1.25	- 1.10	- 0.78	- 0.29

표 1.1.2 GDAPS 북반구 해면기압(MSLP) RMSE [hPa] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.15	1.17	1.21	1.15	1.09	0.85	0.79	0.74	0.74	0.80	0.94	0.98	0.97
48H	1.92	1.90	1.93	1.80	1.80	1.40	1.26	1.23	1.27	1.36	1.56	1.63	1.59
72H	2.83	2.70	2.71	2.60	2.56	2.05	1.80	1.78	1.97	2.19	2.29	2.48	2.33
96H	4.00	3.74	3.74	3.60	3.48	2.83	2.52	2.54	2.71	3.32	3.36	3.48	3.28
120H	5.37	5.01	4.92	4.71	4.38	3.62	3.38	3.32	3.53	4.56	4.68	4.67	4.35
144H	6.75	6.18	6.07	5.78	5.34	4.39	4.13	4.12	4.57	5.82	6.10	5.84	5.42
168H	8.10	7.25	7.32	6.72	6.25	5.22	4.72	4.87	5.77	6.96	7.33	7.23	6.48
192H	9.18	8.49	8.39	7.63	6.94	5.97	5.25	5.46	6.52	7.95	8.57	8.41	7.40
216H	10.07	9.53	9.03	8.16	7.59	6.40	5.66	5.91	7.28	8.85	9.79	9.40	8.14
240H	10.92	10.57	9.69	8.63	7.95	6.82	5.96	6.31	8.05	9.45	10.59	10.27	8.77
264H	11.62	11.15	10.20	9.39	8.12	7.06	6.22	6.50	8.55	9.97	10.99	11.02	9.23
288H	12.11	11.69	10.99	9.75	8.40	7.19	6.32	6.70	8.84	10.32	11.21	11.81	9.61

표 1.1.3 GDAPS 북반구 해면기압(MSLP) S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	20.64	21.32	22.24	23.12	24.50	23.02	22.69	21.37	19.44	17.89	18.41	18.50	21.09
48H	28.48	28.90	30.34	31.44	33.70	31.62	30.38	29.30	27.17	24.89	25.97	26.11	29.02
72H	36.28	36.12	37.81	39.97	42.53	39.63	38.33	37.39	35.67	33.22	33.34	34.16	37.04
96H	44.87	44.46	45.69	48.93	51.68	48.13	46.94	46.22	43.92	43.05	42.11	42.04	45.67
120H	53.64	52.74	54.12	57.90	60.07	56.20	55.61	54.66	51.93	52.29	52.00	49.87	54.25
144H	61.74	60.24	61.84	65.99	67.60	63.49	62.72	62.16	61.00	60.45	60.61	57.45	62.11
168H	68.58	66.66	69.14	72.11	73.56	69.78	67.84	68.79	69.27	68.07	68.55	65.06	68.95
192H	73.71	72.16	75.10	77.24	78.06	74.97	71.55	73.28	74.74	74.42	74.98	70.91	74.26
216H	77.91	76.48	78.35	80.22	82.02	78.10	74.52	76.50	79.83	78.97	80.32	74.62	78.15
240H	81.12	80.18	81.28	83.01	84.33	80.42	76.50	79.54	84.45	81.74	83.41	77.71	81.14
264H	83.98	82.64	83.69	86.08	85.19	81.41	78.42	81.01	86.57	84.15	85.21	80.32	83.22
288H	84.94	84.84	86.31	87.75	85.66	82.22	79.29	82.02	87.34	85.23	86.52	82.55	84.56

표 1.1.4 GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.13	- 0.18	- 0.19	- 0.18	- 0.10	- 0.02	0.00	- 0.03	- 0.10	- 0.10	- 0.02	- 0.04	- 0.09
48H	- 0.19	- 0.28	- 0.31	- 0.30	- 0.18	- 0.06	- 0.05	- 0.07	- 0.17	- 0.14	0.00	- 0.03	- 0.15
72H	- 0.23	- 0.34	- 0.38	- 0.36	- 0.22	- 0.09	- 0.10	- 0.10	- 0.20	- 0.14	0.04	- 0.02	- 0.18
96H	- 0.25	- 0.37	- 0.43	- 0.40	- 0.24	- 0.11	- 0.13	- 0.12	- 0.21	- 0.14	0.06	0.00	- 0.20
120H	- 0.25	- 0.39	- 0.45	- 0.43	- 0.24	- 0.13	- 0.17	- 0.15	- 0.22	- 0.14	0.08	0.01	- 0.21
144H	- 0.25	- 0.40	- 0.46	- 0.47	- 0.24	- 0.15	- 0.20	- 0.19	- 0.25	- 0.13	0.11	0.02	- 0.22
168H	- 0.23	- 0.41	- 0.47	- 0.50	- 0.24	- 0.15	- 0.21	- 0.20	- 0.23	- 0.11	0.16	0.06	- 0.21
192H	- 0.24	- 0.41	- 0.46	- 0.52	- 0.25	- 0.17	- 0.22	- 0.20	- 0.22	- 0.07	0.22	0.08	- 0.21
216H	- 0.26	- 0.45	- 0.44	- 0.53	- 0.25	- 0.19	- 0.24	- 0.19	- 0.22	- 0.03	0.24	0.12	- 0.20
240H	- 0.27	- 0.49	- 0.46	- 0.56	- 0.26	- 0.19	- 0.27	- 0.18	- 0.19	0.00	0.26	0.14	- 0.21
264H	- 0.29	- 0.52	- 0.53	- 0.58	- 0.27	- 0.20	- 0.28	- 0.18	- 0.16	0.03	0.37	0.15	- 0.20
288H	- 0.29	- 0.52	- 0.60	- 0.57	- 0.29	- 0.20	- 0.28	- 0.21	- 0.14	0.07	0.47	0.16	- 0.20

표 1.1.5 GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.13	1.11	1.07	1.05	1.02	0.92	0.86	0.81	0.79	0.85	0.96	1.02	0.97
48H	1.55	1.56	1.53	1.48	1.48	1.32	1.21	1.15	1.15	1.19	1.35	1.42	1.37
72H	1.97	2.00	1.95	1.90	1.91	1.68	1.55	1.47	1.49	1.52	1.69	1.79	1.74
96H	2.49	2.46	2.43	2.41	2.43	2.10	1.92	1.83	1.87	1.95	2.11	2.19	2.18
120H	3.08	3.00	2.94	2.95	2.95	2.53	2.34	2.21	2.27	2.43	2.63	2.66	2.67
144H	3.64	3.62	3.44	3.46	3.50	2.97	2.83	2.61	2.78	2.96	3.19	3.22	3.18
168H	4.22	4.16	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.46	3.20	3.03	3.23	3.50	3.72	3.78	3.69
192H	4.63	4.63	4.57	4.41	4.39	3.89	3.51	3.38	3.64	3.97	4.25	4.31	4.13
216H	5.10	5.01	5.00	4.74	4.75	4.19	3.78	3.67	4.02	4.32	4.74	4.66	4.50
240H	5.46	5.39	5.41	4.99	5.04	4.43	3.97	3.94	4.37	4.67	5.17	4.99	4.82
264H	5.74	5.67	5.73	5.24	5.19	4.59	4.14	4.10	4.67	4.95	5.41	5.35	5.07
288H	6.00	5.94	5.93	5.40	5.32	4.74	4.30	4.20	4.81	5.23	5.65	5.67	5.26

표 1.1.6 GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	35.38	35.38	35.87	35.88	36.39	36.05	36.40	35.20	33.37	32.88	32.39	32.93	34.84
48H	44.12	44.17	45.01	45.60	46.79	46.53	46.40	45.52	43.29	41.84	41.96	42.12	44.45
72H	50.68	50.71	51.36	52.70	54.27	53.37	53.23	52.38	50.42	48.61	48.53	48.78	51.25
96H	56.61	56.34	57.19	59.12	60.87	59.86	59.04	58.37	56.78	55.37	54.64	54.52	57.39
120H	62.41	61.70	62.62	64.68	66.51	65.17	64.28	63.62	62.03	61.18	60.62	59.51	62.86
144H	67.24	66.57	67.23	69.18	71.10	69.40	69.16	68.35	67.30	66.07	65.93	64.41	67.66
168H	71.22	70.55	71.43	72.93	74.80	73.06	72.37	72.17	71.21	70.90	69.90	68.62	71.60
192H	73.77	73.86	74.37	76.12	77.71	76.21	74.89	74.89	74.55	74.34	73.55	72.06	74.69
216H	76.17	76.09	76.98	78.00	80.05	78.15	77.11	77.04	77.32	76.74	76.52	74.18	77.03
240H	77.97	78.02	78.61	79.32	81.64	79.47	78.51	78.87	79.73	78.46	78.86	75.99	78.79
264H	79.10	79.36	80.28	80.90	82.31	80.64	79.40	80.06	81.44	79.84	79.76	77.74	80.07
288H	80.50	80.90	81.37	81.73	83.01	81.52	80.46	80.68	82.13	81.14	80.82	78.99	81.10

표 1.1.7 GDAPS 북반구 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
48H	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.94	0.94	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.95
72H	0.92	0.92	0.92	0.90	0.89	0.89	0.90	0.91	0.93	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92
96H	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.84	0.83	0.84	0.85	0.86	0.88	0.90	0.89	0.89	0.87
120H	0.81	0.82	0.81	0.76	0.75	0.76	0.77	0.80	0.83	0.84	0.83	0.84	0.80
144H	0.73	0.74	0.74	0.66	0.64	0.68	0.67	0.72	0.74	0.75	0.75	0.77	0.72
168H	0.64	0.65	0.64	0.56	0.53	0.58	0.58	0.63	0.65	0.65	0.66	0.69	0.62
192H	0.57	0.57	0.53	0.45	0.43	0.47	0.50	0.54	0.56	0.55	0.56	0.59	0.53
216H	0.48	0.50	0.43	0.37	0.33	0.38	0.43	0.47	0.46	0.46	0.45	0.52	0.44
240H	0.40	0.42	0.34	0.31	0.25	0.31	0.38	0.39	0.37	0.38	0.34	0.46	0.36
264H	0.35	0.35	0.28	0.25	0.20	0.25	0.33	0.34	0.28	0.30	0.28	0.38	0.30
288H	0.29	0.28	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.20	0.28	0.30	0.23	0.23	0.21	0.30	0.24

표 1.1.8 GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 1.36	- 1.33	- 1.29	- 1.33	- 1.36	- 1.54	- 2.10	- 1.84	- 1.44	- 0.96	0.14	0.10	- 1.19
48H	- 2.07	- 2.36	- 1.92	- 2.09	- 2.05	- 2.59	- 3.71	- 3.29	- 2.67	- 1.62	0.39	0.06	- 1.99
72H	- 2.64	- 2.71	- 2.06	- 2.22	- 1.93	- 2.80	- 4.51	- 4.08	- 3.24	- 1.79	1.23	0.42	- 2.19
96H	- 2.69	- 2.60	- 1.43	- 1.86	- 1.42	- 2.65	- 5.06	- 4.68	- 3.54	- 1.89	1.74	0.84	- 2.10
120H	- 2.39	- 2.47	- 1.12	- 1.67	- 0.60	- 2.20	- 5.18	- 5.39	- 3.88	- 2.17	2.12	0.58	- 2.03
144H	- 2.28	- 2.40	- 0.93	- 2.25	- 0.08	- 1.97	- 5.39	- 5.86	- 4.45	- 2.51	2.98	0.64	- 2.04
168H	- 2.05	- 2.41	- 0.67	- 2.71	0.39	- 1.70	- 5.27	- 6.12	- 4.44	- 2.65	3.07	0.61	- 2.00
192H	- 1.75	- 2.20	- 0.17	- 2.38	0.63	- 1.32	- 4.95	- 5.95	- 3.76	- 3.08	2.75	0.24	- 1.83
216H	- 1.27	- 2.66	- 0.02	- 2.39	1.00	- 0.61	- 4.85	- 5.34	- 4.07	- 2.92	1.81	- 0.33	- 1.80
240H	- 1.49	- 2.94	- 0.36	- 2.57	1.07	- 0.60	- 4.77	- 4.51	- 4.91	- 3.40	2.49	- 0.35	- 1.86
264H	- 2.24	- 3.33	- 0.99	- 1.96	0.97	- 0.20	- 4.42	- 3.87	- 5.08	- 3.53	2.76	0.25	- 1.80
288H	- 1.82	- 3.35	- 1.49	- 1.24	1.27	0.12	- 3.91	- 3.44	- 5.67	- 4.18	3.42	0.43	- 1.66

표 1.1.9 GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	9.09	9.45	10.31	10.00	9.61	7.09	6.48	6.12	6.15	6.40	7.11	7.73	7.96
48H	16.91	17.49	18.53	17.38	17.88	13.16	11.82	11.49	12.13	12.23	13.67	14.79	14.79
72H	27.03	27.33	27.54	26.28	26.95	20.68	18.77	18.18	19.69	20.84	21.79	24.01	23.26
96H	39.92	39.30	38.62	37.68	37.91	30.19	27.26	26.43	27.69	32.33	33.54	34.70	33.80
120H	55.04	53.03	52.04	49.83	49.25	40.00	37.25	36.15	37.53	45.98	48.05	47.21	45.95
144H	69.91	67.36	65.74	61.60	61.25	50.02	47.20	45.91	50.04	60.73	63.94	61.11	58.73
168H	84.81	82.24	81.14	72.19	73.44	61.32	55.60	54.96	64.14	74.59	79.01	76.37	71.65
192H	95.82	95.92	95.39	83.12	83.05	70.81	62.91	62.62	75.25	85.17	92.26	89.47	82.65
216H	107.95	105.49	105.06	90.00	92.64	77.45	69.33	69.30	85.72	96.80	106.21	100.49	92.20
240H	119.54	115.24	111.13	98.29	100.01	83.53	74.77	74.98	94.71	104.68	116.43	110.88	100.35
264H	128.19	123.86	117.54	105.53	103.07	88.30	79.09	77.90	100.75	111.11	123.06	120.89	106.61
288H	134.83	128.21	125.55	109.68	105.60	90.61	81.16	80.33	104.87	115.49	129.60	129.90	111.32

표 1.1.10 GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	12.10	12.62	13.42	14.31	15.27	14.68	14.71	14.17	12.31	11.17	11.08	10.96	13.07
48H	19.30	19.93	21.15	22.65	24.60	23.53	23.18	22.42	20.21	17.92	18.11	18.03	20.92
72H	26.67	27.42	28.43	30.85	33.50	32.08	32.16	30.85	28.57	25.87	24.88	25.43	28.89
96H	34.51	34.95	35.63	39.21	42.18	41.08	41.20	39.85	36.13	34.67	32.79	32.48	37.06
120H	42.22	42.13	42.89	46.77	49.99	48.91	49.66	48.56	43.99	43.30	41.35	38.96	44.89
144H	48.84	48.89	49.81	53.78	56.67	55.89	57.23	56.01	52.17	51.17	48.93	45.61	52.08
168H	54.71	54.75	56.38	59.25	63.13	62.79	63.06	62.48	59.80	58.38	55.45	51.89	58.51
192H	58.76	59.97	61.82	63.92	67.94	67.96	67.73	67.55	65.78	63.45	60.72	56.84	63.54
216H	62.71	63.01	65.50	66.65	72.13	71.53	71.38	71.55	71.42	68.11	65.77	60.13	67.49
240H	66.11	65.66	67.63	69.86	75.34	74.31	74.57	75.10	75.75	71.11	68.96	63.60	70.67
264H	69.16	68.19	70.04	72.32	76.81	76.35	76.59	77.19	78.47	73.70	71.39	66.91	73.09
288H	70.96	69.86	72.56	73.65	77.32	77.40	77.92	78.22	79.93	75.21	73.85	69.20	74.67

표 1.1.11 GDAPS 북반구 500hPa 고도 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
48H	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
72H	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
96H	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.89	0.91	0.91	0.92	0.94	0.94	0.95	0.95	0.93
120H	0.89	0.89	0.88	0.84	0.82	0.84	0.83	0.84	0.89	0.88	0.90	0.90	0.87
144H	0.82	0.83	0.81	0.75	0.72	0.75	0.72	0.74	0.81	0.78	0.82	0.84	0.78
168H	0.73	0.74	0.70	0.66	0.60	0.63	0.62	0.63	0.68	0.67	0.73	0.76	0.68
192H	0.66	0.65	0.58	0.55	0.49	0.50	0.52	0.52	0.57	0.58	0.64	0.67	0.58
216H	0.57	0.58	0.49	0.49	0.37	0.40	0.42	0.42	0.44	0.46	0.52	0.60	0.48
240H	0.47	0.51	0.44	0.39	0.27	0.30	0.34	0.32	0.32	0.37	0.42	0.51	0.39
264H	0.39	0.43	0.37	0.30	0.23	0.22	0.26	0.26	0.24	0.29	0.34	0.43	0.31
288H	0.33	0.38	0.29	0.24	0.19	0.18	0.22	0.21	0.18	0.23	0.27	0.34	0.25

표 1.1.12 GDAPS 북반구 250hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.06	- 0.03	0.03	0.08	0.00	- 0.17	- 0.16	- 0.18	- 0.09	- 0.10	- 0.19	- 0.11	- 0.08
48H	- 0.10	- 0.03	0.01	0.05	0.07	- 0.19	- 0.17	- 0.21	- 0.12	- 0.08	- 0.25	- 0.16	- 0.09
72H	- 0.18	0.02	0.07	0.02	0.05	- 0.20	- 0.15	- 0.23	- 0.19	- 0.16	- 0.25	- 0.17	- 0.11
96H	- 0.26	- 0.03	- 0.05	0.00	0.02	- 0.23	- 0.13	- 0.26	- 0.22	- 0.24	- 0.27	- 0.15	- 0.15
120H	- 0.36	- 0.18	- 0.20	- 0.07	- 0.09	- 0.32	- 0.16	- 0.29	- 0.25	- 0.30	- 0.38	- 0.16	- 0.23
144H	- 0.41	- 0.30	- 0.42	- 0.03	- 0.16	- 0.38	- 0.15	- 0.33	- 0.30	- 0.32	- 0.41	- 0.14	- 0.28
168H	- 0.58	- 0.46	- 0.52	- 0.07	- 0.11	- 0.42	- 0.09	- 0.33	- 0.39	- 0.45	- 0.39	- 0.12	- 0.33
192H	- 0.82	- 0.48	- 0.69	- 0.07	- 0.13	- 0.48	- 0.04	- 0.35	- 0.58	- 0.50	- 0.40	- 0.16	- 0.39
216H	- 0.95	- 0.55	- 0.90	- 0.07	- 0.20	- 0.59	0.02	- 0.42	- 0.62	- 0.56	- 0.43	- 0.21	- 0.46
240H	- 1.03	- 0.47	- 1.12	- 0.03	- 0.29	- 0.57	0.08	- 0.54	- 0.70	- 0.59	- 0.51	- 0.28	- 0.50
264H	- 1.12	- 0.40	- 1.22	- 0.06	- 0.28	- 0.56	0.09	- 0.54	- 0.79	- 0.66	- 0.64	- 0.34	- 0.54
288H	- 1.27	- 0.50	- 1.25	- 0.15	- 0.37	- 0.47	0.08	- 0.51	- 0.74	- 0.87	- 0.78	- 0.48	- 0.61

표 1.1.13 GDAPS 북반구 250hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	4.46	4.65	5.06	5.30	4.99	4.05	3.87	3.74	3.66	3.64	3.68	3.69	4.23
48H	6.28	6.62	7.07	7.32	7.36	6.39	6.08	5.90	5.87	5.72	5.77	5.72	6.34
72H	8.51	8.74	9.19	9.27	9.70	8.85	8.37	8.17	8.25	8.15	7.99	7.95	8.59
96H	11.15	11.09	11.30	11.60	12.16	11.55	10.83	10.59	10.75	11.12	10.68	10.52	11.11
120H	14.10	13.35	14.03	14.08	14.43	13.93	13.02	12.92	13.34	14.21	13.61	13.15	13.68
144H	17.06	16.13	16.62	16.73	16.81	16.24	15.20	15.16	16.00	17.37	16.82	16.00	16.34
168H	19.64	18.71	19.25	18.71	19.31	18.53	16.83	17.17	18.46	20.07	19.56	18.88	18.76
192H	21.58	21.10	21.47	20.80	21.28	20.19	18.17	18.74	20.61	22.19	21.86	21.29	20.77
216H	23.56	22.73	23.25	22.22	23.12	21.42	19.38	19.65	22.30	23.89	23.88	23.16	22.38
240H	25.38	23.98	24.39	23.51	24.27	22.21	20.37	20.79	23.81	25.42	25.35	24.72	23.68
264H	26.64	25.54	25.70	24.57	24.81	22.77	21.02	21.46	25.16	26.62	26.65	26.17	24.76
288H	27.75	26.56	26.75	25.39	25.09	23.29	21.53	21.69	25.78	27.28	27.75	27.26	25.51

라) 적도지역 분석검증

표 1.1.14 GDAPS 적도지역 해면기압(MSLP) Mean Error [hPa] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.05	0.05	0.00	- 0.03	- 0.02	0.01	0.05	- 0.02	0.00	- 0.01	- 0.04	- 0.03	0.00
48H	0.04	0.07	- 0.01	- 0.04	- 0.01	0.05	0.10	0.02	0.04	0.00	- 0.09	- 0.07	0.00
72H	0.01	0.03	- 0.05	- 0.08	- 0.04	0.03	0.10	0.05	0.09	0.01	- 0.14	- 0.13	- 0.01
96H	- 0.05	- 0.05	- 0.13	- 0.11	- 0.09	- 0.03	0.11	0.08	0.11	0.01	- 0.16	- 0.21	- 0.04
120H	- 0.12	- 0.13	- 0.23	- 0.14	- 0.15	- 0.09	0.08	0.10	0.13	0.03	- 0.21	- 0.30	- 0.08
144H	- 0.22	- 0.22	- 0.33	- 0.12	- 0.20	- 0.07	0.04	0.10	0.12	0.03	- 0.24	- 0.37	- 0.12
168H	- 0.36	- 0.29	- 0.42	- 0.08	- 0.27	- 0.04	- 0.05	0.05	0.05	0.07	- 0.21	- 0.44	- 0.17
192H	- 0.45	- 0.41	- 0.48	- 0.11	- 0.35	- 0.01	- 0.15	0.01	- 0.02	0.14	- 0.18	- 0.51	- 0.21
216H	- 0.54	- 0.52	- 0.49	- 0.12	- 0.41	0.02	- 0.18	- 0.02	- 0.11	0.16	- 0.16	- 0.54	- 0.24
240H	- 0.63	- 0.60	- 0.52	- 0.13	- 0.47	0.02	- 0.20	- 0.05	- 0.26	0.17	- 0.18	- 0.62	- 0.29
264H	- 0.72	- 0.65	- 0.58	- 0.17	- 0.49	0.08	- 0.25	- 0.09	- 0.33	0.12	- 0.23	- 0.74	- 0.34
288H	- 0.80	- 0.75	- 0.59	- 0.21	- 0.53	0.15	- 0.32	- 0.14	- 0.43	0.11	- 0.27	- 0.78	- 0.38

표 1.1.15 GDAPS 적도지역 해면기압(MSLP) RMSE [hPa] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.53	0.58	0.56	0.49	0.51	0.51	0.49	0.52	0.52	0.53	0.49	0.53	0.52
48H	0.73	0.78	0.80	0.66	0.67	0.67	0.71	0.73	0.78	0.75	0.66	0.68	0.72
72H	0.84	0.86	0.95	0.79	0.78	0.73	0.83	0.85	0.90	0.89	0.74	0.74	0.82
96H	0.92	0.91	1.07	0.89	0.87	0.81	0.91	0.93	1.01	0.96	0.82	0.87	0.91
120H	1.05	1.00	1.16	1.00	0.97	0.92	1.00	1.02	1.10	1.04	0.94	1.01	1.02
144H	1.21	1.13	1.31	1.13	1.10	1.00	1.11	1.14	1.20	1.16	1.05	1.17	1.14
168H	1.39	1.28	1.40	1.27	1.25	1.12	1.21	1.25	1.35	1.29	1.15	1.34	1.27
192H	1.51	1.42	1.54	1.40	1.41	1.27	1.30	1.35	1.42	1.44	1.30	1.49	1.40
216H	1.64	1.57	1.65	1.51	1.50	1.43	1.40	1.48	1.53	1.61	1.44	1.65	1.53
240H	1.75	1.70	1.78	1.65	1.59	1.58	1.48	1.62	1.67	1.71	1.59	1.75	1.66
264H	1.82	1.78	1.91	1.73	1.65	1.65	1.59	1.69	1.82	1.83	1.69	1.90	1.75
288H	1.95	1.91	1.98	1.78	1.73	1.77	1.67	1.79	1.87	1.92	1.72	2.03	1.84

표 1.1.16 GDAPS 적도지역 해면기압(MSLP) S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	32.41	32.37	33.63	32.31	31.54	28.91	27.54	29.80	31.39	32.35	30.12	29.70	31.01
48H	37.79	37.52	39.38	37.70	36.51	33.36	32.09	34.51	36.94	37.47	36.07	35.11	36.20
72H	40.67	40.52	42.74	40.52	39.40	35.76	34.84	37.33	40.41	40.41	39.24	38.07	39.16
96H	43.19	42.68	45.28	42.82	41.45	37.41	36.70	39.46	43.02	42.40	41.45	40.64	41.37
120H	45.43	44.34	47.70	44.67	43.04	39.07	38.41	41.48	45.06	44.65	43.52	43.15	43.38
144H	47.82	46.26	49.96	46.78	44.53	40.64	40.38	43.30	46.97	46.55	45.79	45.55	45.38
168H	49.98	48.15	52.00	48.61	46.24	42.31	41.98	45.28	49.17	48.42	47.85	48.07	47.34
192H	51.78	50.19	54.25	50.56	47.80	43.91	43.30	47.16	50.76	50.54	49.83	50.28	49.20
216H	53.58	51.55	56.16	52.69	49.23	45.39	44.68	48.79	51.95	52.61	51.21	52.47	50.86
240H	55.13	52.99	57.48	53.95	50.54	46.68	45.84	50.25	53.22	54.44	53.47	53.87	52.32
264H	56.03	54.23	59.06	55.29	51.73	47.60	47.55	51.00	54.36	56.26	54.70	55.35	53.60
288H	57.46	55.82	59.81	56.59	52.55	48.89	48.68	51.38	54.78	57.20	55.57	56.60	54.61

표 1.1.17 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.07	- 0.01	- 0.02	- 0.05	- 0.10	- 0.11	- 0.15	- 0.12	- 0.09	- 0.05	0.05	0.03	- 0.05
48H	- 0.16	- 0.08	- 0.06	- 0.10	- 0.18	- 0.21	- 0.27	- 0.26	- 0.18	- 0.13	0.06	0.01	- 0.13
72H	- 0.24	- 0.15	- 0.09	- 0.15	- 0.23	- 0.30	- 0.36	- 0.38	- 0.28	- 0.19	0.07	0.00	- 0.19
96H	- 0.31	- 0.20	- 0.12	- 0.19	- 0.25	- 0.35	- 0.44	- 0.47	- 0.34	- 0.27	0.07	0.00	- 0.24
120H	- 0.36	- 0.23	- 0.14	- 0.23	- 0.26	- 0.38	- 0.51	- 0.53	- 0.41	- 0.32	0.07	0.01	- 0.27
144H	- 0.39	- 0.24	- 0.15	- 0.25	- 0.25	- 0.40	- 0.55	- 0.59	- 0.46	- 0.37	0.06	0.01	- 0.30
168H	- 0.43	- 0.27	- 0.16	- 0.29	- 0.26	- 0.42	- 0.57	- 0.63	- 0.48	- 0.42	0.02	0.00	- 0.33
192H	- 0.46	- 0.28	- 0.18	- 0.33	- 0.26	- 0.42	- 0.57	- 0.65	- 0.49	- 0.47	0.01	0.00	- 0.34
216H	- 0.48	- 0.28	- 0.20	- 0.35	- 0.25	- 0.41	- 0.57	- 0.67	- 0.50	- 0.50	0.00	0.04	- 0.35
240H	- 0.50	- 0.28	- 0.23	- 0.36	- 0.25	- 0.41	- 0.56	- 0.66	- 0.50	- 0.51	0.00	0.04	- 0.35
264H	- 0.52	- 0.30	- 0.27	- 0.37	- 0.26	- 0.40	- 0.54	- 0.67	- 0.49	- 0.52	0.00	0.05	- 0.36
288H	- 0.53	- 0.29	- 0.30	- 0.39	- 0.26	- 0.37	- 0.52	- 0.70	- 0.49	- 0.54	0.02	0.06	- 0.36

표 1.1.18 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.64	0.61	0.61	0.60	0.63	0.64	0.67	0.70	0.69	0.70	0.64	0.67	0.65
48H	0.89	0.82	0.82	0.81	0.85	0.87	0.92	0.96	0.94	0.93	0.85	0.86	0.88
72H	1.06	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.98	1.03	1.07	1.14	1.12	1.08	0.97	0.99	1.03
96H	1.17	1.06	1.07	1.06	1.09	1.13	1.19	1.27	1.22	1.21	1.06	1.06	1.13
120H	1.28	1.15	1.17	1.17	1.18	1.23	1.30	1.41	1.35	1.33	1.16	1.13	1.24
144H	1.40	1.23	1.30	1.29	1.27	1.33	1.42	1.54	1.46	1.45	1.25	1.22	1.35
168H	1.50	1.34	1.42	1.40	1.34	1.43	1.55	1.66	1.56	1.56	1.36	1.34	1.46
192H	1.61	1.43	1.53	1.50	1.42	1.51	1.64	1.77	1.67	1.65	1.47	1.46	1.55
216H	1.70	1.53	1.63	1.59	1.50	1.59	1.73	1.86	1.78	1.75	1.58	1.55	1.65
240H	1.79	1.64	1.70	1.68	1.58	1.67	1.82	1.95	1.88	1.85	1.68	1.63	1.74
264H	1.88	1.75	1.80	1.77	1.67	1.77	1.86	2.02	1.95	1.91	1.77	1.72	1.82
288H	1.93	1.84	1.83	1.85	1.74	1.84	1.93	2.06	2.01	1.99	1.83	1.78	1.89

표 1.1.19 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	44.71	43.84	44.71	44.33	44.09	43.22	42.24	43.31	43.81	44.22	43.25	43.48	43.77
48H	55.01	53.80	54.97	54.54	53.95	53.04	52.17	53.05	53.73	54.16	54.59	53.59	53.88
72H	60.32	58.95	60.13	59.55	58.96	58.09	57.10	58.23	59.13	59.15	59.86	58.52	59.00
96H	63.35	61.82	63.46	62.74	61.75	60.70	59.78	60.98	62.04	62.13	62.91	61.41	61.92
120H	65.96	63.72	65.85	65.09	64.02	62.67	61.67	63.48	64.52	64.72	65.32	63.56	64.22
144H	68.27	65.53	68.14	67.27	65.96	64.52	63.97	65.54	66.63	66.82	67.39	65.59	66.30
168H	70.13	67.51	70.26	68.83	67.27	66.30	65.93	67.46	67.99	68.48	69.54	67.90	68.13
192H	71.64	69.43	72.03	70.54	69.00	67.85	67.29	69.11	69.78	69.94	70.75	69.73	69.76
216H	72.89	70.91	73.19	71.97	70.05	69.15	68.80	70.31	70.89	71.55	72.45	70.92	71.09
240H	74.17	72.16	74.39	73.50	71.05	70.36	69.92	71.43	71.93	72.85	73.78	72.35	72.32
264H	75.26	73.16	75.59	74.74	72.24	71.52	70.95	71.94	72.82	74.00	75.08	73.75	73.42
288H	76.01	74.57	76.24	75.66	73.37	72.52	71.93	72.28	73.45	74.85	76.09	74.68	74.30

표 1.1.20 GDAPS 적도지역 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.92	0.92	0.90	0.91	0.91	0.90	0.91	0.89	0.91	0.91	0.91	0.91	0.91
48H	0.85	0.86	0.83	0.84	0.85	0.83	0.83	0.81	0.84	0.85	0.84	0.86	0.84
72H	0.79	0.82	0.78	0.79	0.80	0.76	0.78	0.75	0.78	0.80	0.79	0.81	0.79
96H	0.75	0.78	0.73	0.75	0.76	0.72	0.74	0.70	0.75	0.76	0.75	0.78	0.75
120H	0.71	0.75	0.68	0.71	0.72	0.67	0.69	0.64	0.70	0.72	0.71	0.76	0.70
144H	0.66	0.72	0.61	0.65	0.68	0.63	0.63	0.57	0.65	0.67	0.67	0.72	0.66
168H	0.62	0.67	0.54	0.60	0.65	0.57	0.55	0.50	0.59	0.62	0.62	0.66	0.60
192H	0.58	0.63	0.48	0.54	0.61	0.52	0.49	0.43	0.54	0.58	0.55	0.61	0.55
216H	0.53	0.58	0.43	0.48	0.57	0.47	0.43	0.38	0.47	0.52	0.49	0.56	0.49
240H	0.47	0.51	0.38	0.42	0.53	0.42	0.36	0.32	0.42	0.45	0.43	0.52	0.44
264H	0.43	0.45	0.32	0.36	0.48	0.36	0.33	0.27	0.37	0.40	0.38	0.47	0.38
288H	0.39	0.38	0.31	0.29	0.43	0.30	0.28	0.26	0.32	0.36	0.33	0.44	0.34

표 1.1.21 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 Mean Error [m] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 1.43	- 1.03	- 0.86	- 1.20	- 1.99	- 2.35	- 2.50	- 2.31	- 2.33	- 1.65	- 0.60	- 0.96	- 1.60
48H	- 2.93	- 2.21	- 1.70	- 2.03	- 3.10	- 3.64	- 4.19	- 3.76	- 3.80	- 2.78	- 0.97	- 1.60	- 2.73
72H	- 4.18	- 3.43	- 2.51	- 2.77	- 3.87	- 4.57	- 5.23	- 4.62	- 4.54	- 3.55	- 0.96	- 1.99	- 3.52
96H	- 5.45	- 4.90	- 3.55	- 3.39	- 4.40	- 5.29	- 5.94	- 5.24	- 5.32	- 4.12	- 1.01	- 2.60	- 4.27
120H	- 6.93	- 6.29	- 4.76	- 3.96	- 5.02	- 5.86	- 6.75	- 5.79	- 6.09	- 4.46	- 1.49	- 3.43	- 5.07
144H	- 8.31	- 7.60	- 6.01	- 4.26	- 5.58	- 5.92	- 7.40	- 6.39	- 6.80	- 4.91	- 1.98	- 4.19	- 5.78
168H	- 9.89	- 8.88	- 7.35	- 4.63	- 6.18	- 5.97	- 8.15	- 7.13	- 7.67	- 5.28	- 2.15	- 5.04	- 6.53
192H	- 11.10	- 10.47	- 8.61	- 5.62	- 6.80	- 5.85	- 8.98	- 7.63	- 8.58	- 5.43	- 2.34	- 5.73	- 7.26
216H	- 12.34	- 11.95	- 9.48	- 6.42	- 7.38	- 5.64	- 9.42	- 7.89	- 9.50	- 5.90	- 2.51	- 6.06	- 7.87
240H	- 13.39	- 13.03	- 10.27	- 7.01	- 7.84	- 5.52	- 9.89	- 8.14	- 10.65	- 6.19	- 3.04	- 6.54	- 8.46
264H	- 14.45	- 13.69	- 11.47	- 7.83	- 8.00	- 4.90	- 10.50	- 8.68	- 11.16	- 6.93	- 3.45	- 7.44	- 9.04
288H	- 15.41	- 14.50	- 12.39	- 8.44	- 8.28	- 4.08	- 11.08	- 9.31	- 12.01	- 7.58	- 3.67	- 7.84	- 9.55

표 1.1.22 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 RMSE [m] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	3.59	4.08	3.81	3.40	3.82	3.95	4.00	3.95	3.97	3.66	3.21	3.43	3.74
48H	5.82	6.20	5.73	4.74	5.39	5.63	6.11	5.98	6.03	5.33	4.23	4.69	5.49
72H	7.23	7.25	6.85	5.85	6.61	6.86	7.56	7.37	7.27	6.45	5.12	5.55	6.66
96H	8.80	8.71	8.19	6.74	7.48	7.99	8.71	8.43	8.43	7.32	5.99	6.76	7.79
120H	10.47	9.72	9.46	7.64	8.69	9.02	9.92	9.41	9.57	8.22	7.25	8.34	8.97
144H	12.42	11.44	11.13	8.66	9.95	10.01	11.23	10.69	10.87	9.46	8.39	9.86	10.34
168H	14.54	13.34	12.76	9.93	11.34	10.95	12.66	12.06	12.37	10.71	9.57	11.54	11.81
192H	16.16	15.43	14.19	11.30	12.82	11.93	14.14	13.37	13.69	12.31	10.95	13.31	13.30
216H	17.81	17.26	15.49	12.80	14.19	12.84	15.19	14.35	14.75	14.04	12.39	14.93	14.67
240H	19.14	18.97	17.11	14.05	15.25	13.79	16.27	15.33	16.31	15.52	13.94	16.04	15.98
264H	20.30	20.01	18.52	14.90	15.64	14.73	17.50	16.50	17.67	16.77	15.23	17.26	17.09
288H	21.49	20.90	19.64	15.83	15.80	15.19	18.43	17.83	18.77	17.64	15.85	18.41	17.98

표 1.1.23 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	37.62	37.85	38.96	39.00	38.20	37.13	34.89	35.50	36.56	38.28	34.89	35.55	37.04
48H	45.51	45.72	47.50	47.46	46.50	44.63	43.03	43.47	45.42	46.37	43.99	43.95	45.30
72H	50.36	50.54	53.05	52.90	51.64	49.33	48.19	48.61	51.10	51.29	49.54	49.18	50.48
96H	54.45	54.38	57.31	57.09	55.49	53.19	51.84	52.31	55.22	54.83	54.09	53.65	54.49
120H	58.28	57.24	61.08	60.05	59.18	56.50	55.21	55.86	58.96	58.23	57.90	58.11	58.05
144H	62.02	60.41	64.48	63.22	62.62	59.97	58.48	59.16	62.40	61.53	61.19	62.17	61.47
168H	65.52	63.37	67.76	66.67	66.21	63.46	61.86	62.12	65.80	64.70	64.85	65.85	64.85
192H	68.63	66.32	70.57	70.06	69.10	66.76	65.18	65.29	68.29	67.98	68.58	69.48	68.02
216H	71.40	69.18	73.56	72.87	71.56	69.51	67.53	68.37	69.93	71.85	71.76	72.77	70.86
240H	73.74	72.03	76.27	75.88	74.11	72.18	69.99	71.11	71.77	74.67	75.06	75.35	73.51
264H	75.96	73.22	78.50	77.60	76.04	74.79	71.98	73.14	73.60	77.16	77.88	77.53	75.62
288H	78.14	74.69	80.28	79.79	77.04	75.74	74.32	74.83	75.45	78.78	79.84	79.48	77.36

표 1.1.24 GDAPS 적도지역 500hPa 고도 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96
48H	0.93	0.93	0.91	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.94	0.94	0.94	0.93
72H	0.91	0.91	0.88	0.90	0.90	0.89	0.90	0.88	0.89	0.91	0.91	0.92	0.90
96H	0.88	0.89	0.84	0.87	0.87	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.85	0.89	0.88	0.89	0.87
120H	0.84	0.88	0.80	0.84	0.82	0.80	0.82	0.81	0.81	0.86	0.83	0.84	0.83
144H	0.79	0.84	0.74	0.79	0.76	0.73	0.75	0.77	0.75	0.81	0.79	0.79	0.78
168H	0.73	0.79	0.68	0.72	0.69	0.66	0.67	0.71	0.68	0.76	0.74	0.72	0.71
192H	0.68	0.73	0.63	0.65	0.60	0.58	0.57	0.64	0.62	0.68	0.66	0.64	0.64
216H	0.60	0.66	0.56	0.55	0.52	0.50	0.50	0.55	0.58	0.61	0.56	0.55	0.56
240H	0.54	0.60	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.43	0.42	0.44	0.50	0.54	0.45	0.46	0.48
264H	0.50	0.57	0.39	0.41	0.40	0.33	0.34	0.37	0.40	0.46	0.38	0.37	0.41
288H	0.45	0.55	0.34	0.36	0.41	0.30	0.27	0.27	0.35	0.41	0.33	0.30	0.36

표 1.1.25 GDAPS 적도지역 250hPa 풍속 Mean Error [m/s] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.05	- 0.12	- 0.07	- 0.08	- 0.03	- 0.06	- 0.03	0.00	- 0.06	- 0.08	- 0.09	- 0.10	- 0.06
48H	0.00	- 0.06	- 0.04	- 0.07	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	- 0.01	- 0.09	- 0.06	- 0.04	- 0.01
72H	0.06	0.00	0.01	- 0.07	0.12	0.17	0.10	0.11	0.10	- 0.07	0.04	0.14	0.05
96H	0.11	0.05	0.04	- 0.05	0.20	0.22	0.12	0.13	0.14	- 0.05	0.17	0.34	0.12
120H	0.16	0.19	0.13	0.03	0.30	0.19	0.04	0.09	0.21	- 0.13	0.19	0.49	0.16
144H	0.17	0.32	0.19	0.09	0.34	0.21	0.02	0.04	0.23	- 0.22	0.20	0.59	0.18
168H	0.11	0.46	0.23	0.06	0.39	0.28	- 0.03	- 0.08	0.25	- 0.23	0.26	0.65	0.20
192H	0.11	0.52	0.29	0.08	0.46	0.30	- 0.05	- 0.10	0.17	- 0.25	0.30	0.62	0.20
216H	0.19	0.55	0.28	0.15	0.59	0.32	- 0.09	- 0.07	0.01	- 0.21	0.31	0.58	0.22
240H	0.17	0.60	0.33	0.15	0.65	0.32	- 0.09	- 0.05	- 0.07	- 0.26	0.27	0.58	0.22
264H	0.16	0.65	0.35	0.21	0.59	0.39	- 0.04	0.01	- 0.10	- 0.32	0.23	0.71	0.24
288H	0.13	0.65	0.39	0.24	0.58	0.31	- 0.03	0.09	- 0.04	- 0.44	0.14	0.69	0.22

표 1.1.26 GDAPS 적도지역 250hPa 풍속 RMSE [m/s] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	3.80	3.80	3.67	3.44	3.43	3.52	3.57	3.64	3.56	3.58	3.49	3.83	3.61
48H	5.33	5.32	5.18	4.96	4.88	5.00	5.09	5.26	5.08	5.09	5.11	5.53	5.15
72H	6.46	6.50	6.37	6.04	6.05	6.12	6.31	6.44	6.16	6.30	6.33	6.86	6.33
96H	7.42	7.41	7.38	6.92	7.11	7.06	7.19	7.28	7.01	7.26	7.35	7.96	7.28
120H	8.22	8.32	8.36	7.68	8.03	8.03	7.95	7.90	7.65	8.15	8.24	8.92	8.12
144H	9.03	9.12	9.18	8.54	8.84	8.99	8.56	8.48	8.41	8.91	9.13	9.80	8.92
168H	9.75	9.85	9.99	9.27	9.74	9.81	9.20	9.13	9.14	9.56	10.12	10.62	9.68
192H	10.55	10.64	10.86	9.93	10.60	10.44	9.86	9.78	9.85	10.33	10.91	11.35	10.42
216H	11.30	11.15	11.63	10.68	11.52	11.03	10.50	10.48	10.51	11.20	11.57	11.89	11.12
240H	12.00	11.59	12.28	11.32	12.13	11.60	10.99	11.26	11.08	12.05	12.18	12.37	11.74
264H	12.74	12.23	12.88	11.91	12.51	12.17	11.39	11.73	11.54	12.56	12.94	13.11	12.31
288H	13.18	12.85	13.28	12.44	12.66	12.55	11.82	12.20	11.99	12.95	13.47	13.84	12.77

마) 남반구 분석검증

표 1.1.27 GDAPS 남반구 해면기압(MSLP) Mean Error [hPa] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.09	- 0.08	- 0.05	- 0.03	- 0.01	0.03	0.04	0.09	0.04	0.04	0.09	0.06	0.01
48H	- 0.12	- 0.09	- 0.08	- 0.02	0.03	0.08	0.10	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.15	0.13	0.04
72H	- 0.12	- 0.10	- 0.11	- 0.03	0.03	0.13	0.12	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.15	0.16	0.04
96H	- 0.11	- 0.11	- 0.14	- 0.05	0.04	0.19	0.12	0.19	0.13	0.12	0.17	0.19	0.06
120H	- 0.09	- 0.10	- 0.11	- 0.09	0.05	0.21	0.15	0.20	0.18	0.17	0.27	0.32	0.09
144H	- 0.04	- 0.10	- 0.09	- 0.14	0.06	0.15	0.19	0.24	0.25	0.27	0.32	0.43	0.13
168H	0.04	- 0.12	- 0.11	- 0.16	0.08	0.09	0.25	0.33	0.35	0.36	0.40	0.58	0.18
192H	0.11	- 0.08	- 0.15	- 0.19	0.18	0.00	0.29	0.34	0.41	0.43	0.54	0.75	0.22
216H	0.14	0.05	- 0.21	- 0.22	0.21	- 0.14	0.28	0.28	0.58	0.47	0.70	0.91	0.25
240H	0.29	0.10	- 0.25	- 0.25	0.21	- 0.16	0.23	0.22	0.88	0.56	0.79	1.10	0.31
264H	0.45	0.16	- 0.24	- 0.32	0.21	- 0.28	0.24	0.09	1.03	0.65	0.94	1.28	0.35
288H	0.57	0.28	- 0.29	- 0.39	0.16	- 0.44	0.24	0.08	1.22	0.74	1.02	1.43	0.38

표 1.1.28 GDAPS 남반구 해면기압(MSLP) RMSE [hPa] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.81	0.83	0.85	0.93	1.03	1.09	1.19	1.17	1.14	0.98	0.87	0.77	0.97
48H	1.40	1.44	1.49	1.66	1.84	2.01	2.18	2.14	2.08	1.77	1.53	1.34	1.74
72H	2.12	2.24	2.37	2.67	2.88	3.11	3.48	3.31	3.16	2.82	2.38	2.09	2.72
96H	3.04	3.26	3.42	3.94	4.14	4.56	5.12	4.67	4.37	4.24	3.41	3.08	3.94
120H	4.21	4.46	4.66	5.35	5.58	6.03	6.93	6.17	5.68	5.51	4.62	4.23	5.29
144H	5.44	5.68	6.07	6.81	7.12	7.68	8.54	7.68	7.22	6.58	5.75	5.34	6.66
168H	6.53	6.73	7.32	8.19	8.68	9.21	9.75	9.11	8.67	7.59	6.72	6.41	7.91
192H	7.38	7.62	8.45	9.36	10.01	10.49	10.74	10.10	9.82	8.53	7.89	7.16	8.96
216H	7.97	8.28	9.46	10.39	10.73	11.60	11.74	10.94	10.84	9.37	8.77	7.87	9.83
240H	8.38	8.80	10.09	11.02	11.37	12.30	12.36	11.77	11.72	10.08	9.33	8.40	10.47
264H	8.93	9.22	10.42	11.25	11.66	12.60	12.90	12.03	12.25	10.99	9.94	8.83	10.92
288H	9.34	9.56	10.66	11.51	11.94	12.89	13.14	12.38	12.70	11.75	10.46	9.44	11.31

표 1.1.29 GDAPS 남반구 해면기압(MSLP) S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	16.93	16.57	16.21	16.20	16.47	17.46	18.05	17.64	17.25	16.76	15.66	15.42	16.72
48H	24.58	24.45	24.19	24.32	24.70	26.87	27.50	26.85	26.29	25.03	23.56	22.92	25.11
72H	31.98	32.08	32.33	33.09	33.44	35.88	37.38	36.22	34.64	33.58	31.67	30.60	33.57
96H	39.95	40.55	40.68	41.78	42.07	45.51	47.30	44.99	42.79	43.11	39.60	39.21	42.30
120H	48.25	49.20	48.91	50.03	50.15	53.66	56.61	53.35	50.43	51.22	47.55	47.11	50.54
144H	56.43	56.35	57.33	57.75	57.83	61.46	63.77	60.86	58.19	57.36	54.49	54.63	58.04
168H	63.11	62.23	64.38	64.66	65.48	68.43	69.13	67.22	64.82	62.07	60.10	60.88	64.37
192H	68.49	67.17	70.25	70.35	71.28	73.79	72.51	71.30	70.20	66.88	64.86	64.47	69.30
216H	72.07	70.84	74.60	75.47	74.66	77.97	75.36	74.94	73.71	70.30	68.76	68.20	73.07
240H	75.38	72.87	76.65	77.74	77.19	80.04	77.91	77.37	76.23	72.56	71.39	71.23	75.55
264H	77.35	74.83	77.45	78.23	78.03	81.35	78.89	78.67	78.03	75.58	73.82	73.46	77.14
288H	79.35	75.83	77.70	78.79	78.10	81.35	80.00	79.17	78.84	78.25	75.37	75.60	78.20

표 1.1.30 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 Mean Error [℃] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	- 0.04	- 0.02	- 0.07	- 0.19	- 0.36	- 0.43	- 0.42	- 0.38	- 0.31	- 0.16	0.04	0.05	- 0.19
48H	- 0.13	- 0.06	- 0.13	- 0.30	- 0.54	- 0.66	- 0.65	- 0.61	- 0.52	- 0.31	0.05	0.05	- 0.32
72H	- 0.21	- 0.09	- 0.18	- 0.36	- 0.62	- 0.77	- 0.78	- 0.74	- 0.65	- 0.42	0.06	0.05	- 0.39
96H	- 0.27	- 0.13	- 0.21	- 0.39	- 0.66	- 0.83	- 0.83	- 0.81	- 0.76	- 0.47	0.05	0.05	- 0.44
120H	- 0.31	- 0.17	- 0.23	- 0.40	- 0.69	- 0.88	- 0.86	- 0.87	- 0.84	- 0.50	0.02	0.05	- 0.47
144H	- 0.33	- 0.21	- 0.24	- 0.40	- 0.68	- 0.91	- 0.91	- 0.93	- 0.83	- 0.52	0.01	0.05	- 0.49
168H	- 0.35	- 0.21	- 0.27	- 0.37	- 0.63	- 0.90	- 0.95	- 0.95	- 0.84	- 0.58	0.00	0.04	- 0.50
192H	- 0.39	- 0.22	- 0.27	- 0.31	- 0.60	- 0.86	- 0.98	- 0.96	- 0.85	- 0.64	- 0.01	- 0.01	- 0.51
216H	- 0.43	- 0.26	- 0.25	- 0.31	- 0.59	- 0.79	- 0.98	- 0.96	- 0.88	- 0.72	- 0.01	- 0.03	- 0.52
240H	- 0.46	- 0.31	- 0.25	- 0.31	- 0.60	- 0.75	- 0.96	- 0.94	- 0.92	- 0.79	- 0.02	- 0.04	- 0.53
264H	- 0.51	- 0.31	- 0.24	- 0.29	- 0.64	- 0.69	- 0.95	- 0.90	- 0.97	- 0.83	- 0.05	- 0.08	- 0.54
288H	- 0.55	- 0.37	- 0.22	- 0.25	- 0.66	- 0.61	- 0.92	- 0.90	- 0.96	- 0.87	- 0.09	- 0.08	- 0.54

표 1.1.31 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 RMSE [℃] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.88	0.88	0.89	0.93	1.00	1.09	1.14	1.12	1.09	1.00	0.81	0.77	0.97
48H	1.27	1.25	1.29	1.38	1.50	1.65	1.73	1.69	1.66	1.48	1.22	1.14	1.44
72H	1.60	1.58	1.64	1.80	1.95	2.10	2.27	2.20	2.17	1.93	1.60	1.48	1.86
96H	1.98	1.96	2.05	2.27	2.41	2.58	2.83	2.71	2.72	2.42	2.00	1.89	2.32
120H	2.41	2.37	2.51	2.80	2.90	3.12	3.39	3.30	3.25	2.96	2.47	2.28	2.81
144H	2.84	2.84	3.05	3.38	3.43	3.67	3.94	3.77	3.81	3.38	2.93	2.69	3.31
168H	3.25	3.30	3.55	3.93	3.92	4.16	4.36	4.24	4.27	3.75	3.37	3.14	3.77
192H	3.61	3.66	4.02	4.44	4.28	4.54	4.71	4.65	4.78	4.20	3.81	3.51	4.18
216H	3.91	3.96	4.36	4.79	4.62	4.87	5.02	4.95	5.16	4.58	4.18	3.81	4.52
240H	4.14	4.14	4.60	5.04	4.85	5.12	5.34	5.20	5.41	4.82	4.40	4.04	4.76
264H	4.32	4.40	4.77	5.24	5.00	5.24	5.45	5.39	5.60	5.00	4.62	4.22	4.94
288H	4.51	4.60	4.84	5.34	5.07	5.32	5.55	5.44	5.70	5.21	4.79	4.36	5.06

표 1.1.32 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 S1 Score [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	36.13	35.57	33.22	32.88	34.30	35.40	36.31	35.43	34.62	35.31	32.62	32.68	34.54
48H	47.60	46.26	43.93	44.21	46.26	47.70	48.68	47.60	46.61	46.93	44.80	44.41	46.25
72H	54.86	53.26	50.93	51.99	54.14	55.64	57.15	55.63	54.83	54.73	52.87	52.28	54.03
96H	60.74	59.15	57.07	58.40	60.56	62.35	63.93	61.79	61.19	61.18	59.24	59.11	60.39
120H	65.78	64.83	62.39	63.94	65.86	67.49	69.41	67.18	65.82	66.84	64.99	64.49	65.75
144H	70.16	69.36	67.62	68.87	70.44	71.42	73.35	71.39	70.57	70.85	69.61	69.04	70.22
168H	73.94	73.12	71.30	72.28	74.02	75.09	76.22	74.60	73.61	73.49	73.24	73.02	73.66
192H	76.87	75.58	74.67	75.58	76.36	77.30	78.06	77.29	76.44	76.28	76.23	76.00	76.39
216H	78.65	77.86	76.75	77.86	78.20	79.21	79.47	78.82	78.08	78.15	78.44	78.00	78.29
240H	79.98	78.78	78.33	79.14	79.51	80.35	80.80	80.24	79.35	79.68	79.89	79.45	79.63
264H	81.01	80.04	78.93	79.72	80.49	81.17	81.83	81.11	80.30	80.74	81.02	80.71	80.59
288H	82.54	81.14	79.14	80.44	80.40	81.65	82.28	81.10	80.77	81.30	81.58	81.63	81.16

표 1.1.33 GDAPS 남반구 850hPa 기온 이상상관 계수 [무차원] 분석검증
FCST	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Ave.
24H	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.97
48H	0.93	0.94	0.94	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.93	0.94	0.94	0.95	0.94	0.94
72H	0.90	0.91	0.91	0.91	0.90	0.88	0.88	0.88	0.90	0.90	0.92	0.91	0.90
96H	0.84	0.86	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.81	0.81	0.81	0.84	0.83	0.87	0.85	0.84
120H	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.71	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.75	0.81	0.78	0.76
144H	0.67	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.66	0.60	0.61	0.62	0.66	0.67	0.73	0.69	0.66
168H	0.57	0.59	0.57	0.54	0.55	0.47	0.51	0.51	0.58	0.59	0.64	0.59	0.56
192H	0.47	0.49	0.45	0.40	0.45	0.36	0.43	0.42	0.47	0.50	0.53	0.48	0.45
216H	0.39	0.40	0.35	0.30	0.36