보도자료

보도시점

2025.11.10.(월) 14:00

배포

2024.11.10.(월) 14:00


예측의 한계를 넘어서: 세계 기상학자들이 말하는 수치모델의 현재와 미래

-   「2025 전지구수치예보시스템 국제 학술회의」 개최



  기상청 수치모델링센터와 (재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단(이하 사업단)은 11월 10일(월)부터 12일(수)까지 수치모델의 현재를 진단하고 미래 발전 방향을 모색하는 2025 전지구수치예보시스템 국제 학술회의」를 개최한다.


이번 학술회의에는 우리나라를 비롯해 세계 최고 수준의 수치모델기술보유한 유럽연합, 영국, 독일, 미국, 일본 전문가들이 참석하여 최신 연구 결과 발표와 기상 예측 기술 향상을 논의한다. 특히, 전 세계 관심사인 인공지능(AI) 기술과 전통적 수치모델의 융합 방향과 전략에 대해 심도 있는 토론이 진행된다. 


기조강연으로 미국 에너지부 태평양북서국립연구소의 루비 릉(Ruby Leung) 박사의 정책과 의사결정에 활용되는 지구시스템모델링, 연세대학교 김준 교수의 수치모델에 중요한 위성관측을 통한 새로운 대기성분 관측기술연구, 국립기상과학원 이혜숙 인공지능기상연구과장의 인공지능을 활용한 기상예측기술 개발 현황이 발표된다.


이어서 세계 최고 수준의 수치예보 기술을 보유한 기관의 전문가들이 수치모델의 현주소와 향후 미래, 인공지능 기반의 수치예보 등 각국의 현황 및 향후 발전 계획을 발표한다.


또한, 기존 10일까지 예측이 가능한 중기예보를 더 긴 시간까지 예측 가능하게 하는 최신기술에 대한 발표를 통해 각 기관의 수치모델의 고도화

방향이 논의될 예정이다. 현재, 사업단은 한국형수치예보모델을 발전시켜 최대 30일까지 기상 예측을 할 수 있는 차세대 수치모델을 2026년까지 개발 완료할 예정이다.


그리고, 수치모델 입력자료의 품질 향상을 위한 자료동화 기술 고도화 성과가 소개되며, 인공지능 기반 수치모델에 관한 최신 연구 동향이 발표된다. 특히, 인공지능이 기존 수치모델의 한계를 어떻게 보완하고 확장할 수 있는지에 대한 활발한 토론이 예정되어 있다.


이미선 기상청장은 “이번 학술대회에서 논의하는 수치모델은 기후위기 시대에 국민의 안전을 지키는 기상예보의 핵심기술이자, 물관리, 에너지, 농업 등 사회 다분야 의사결정에 사용되는 국가 재난대응의 필수 기반이다.”라고 말했다. 이어 “지난 10여 년간 기상청과 사업단은 우리 기술로 한국형수치예보모델을 개발하고 지속적으로 개선하여 기상 선진국과 어깨를 나란히할 수준에 도달했다.”라며 “이번 학술대회를 통해서 우리나라가 기후위기 대응과 인공지능 활용에서 국제적으로 선도해 나가는 계기가 되기를 기대한다.”라고 말했다.


「2025 전지구수치예보시스템 국제 학술회의」에 관한 자세한 내용은 행사 누리집(https://event- us.kr/kiaps/event/98391)에서 확인할 수 있다.


붙임 1. 2025 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단 국제 학술회의 일정
2. 2025 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단 국제 학술회의 사진


담당 부서

수치모델링센터

책임자

과  장

하종철

(042- 481- 7510)

수치모델개발과

담당자

연구관

오현종

(042- 481- 7514)

<공동>

차세대수치예보모델개발사업단

책임자

실  장

최인진

(02- 6480- 6305)

융합전략실

담당자

과  장

허여림

(02- 6480- 6321)


 
  
 

붙임1

2025 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단 국제 학술회의 일정


일정

주요 내용

2025년 11월 10일(월)

10:00∼11:30('60)

[개회식] 

-  [개회사] 박  훈 사업단장

-  [축  사] 국회 기후에너지환경노동위원회 강득구 위원

김승희 기상청 차장
박선기 한국기상학회장

차세대수치예보모델개발사업단 과학자문위원회 의장(Dale Barker 소장)

[세션1] 기조강연(Keynote Presentations)

-  [강연1] 정책과 의사결정에 활용되는 지구시스템모델링
(루비 릉  미국 태평양북서국립연구소 박사)

-  [강연2] 위성관측을 통한 새로운 대기성분 관측기술연구
(김  준 연세대학교 교수)

-  [강연3] 인공지능을 활용한 기상예측기술 개발 현황
(이혜숙 국립기상과학원 인공지능기상연구과장)

13:00∼15:00('120)

[세션2] 각국의 수치예보시스템 운영현황(Overview of Operational NWP Systems)

-  Next- generation NWP Modeling: Status and Plans (Hoon Park, KIAPS)

-  KMA Operational NWP Model (KIM) Status and Plan (Jong- Chul Ha, KMA)

-  Progress and Plans in Physical and ML- based NWP at ECMWF 

(Stephen English, ECMWF)

-  Operational NWP at the Met Office: Where We Are and Where We’re Going (David Walters, UKMO)

-  Current Status and Future Directions for Operational NWP Systems at JMA (Yasumichi Tanaka, JMA)

15:00∼17:00('120)

[세션3] 포스터 발표(Poster Session: 2025 KIAPS Research Highlights)

2025년 11월 11일(화)

10:00∼12:00('120)

[세션4] 역학코어 및 물리과정(Dynamical Core and Physics)

-  Recent Studies on Vertical Resolution Increase in the Korean Integrated Model (So- Young Kim, KIAPS)

-  Global Numerical Prediction of Thunderstorms: Has Its Time Come? 

(William C. Skamarock, NSF NCAR)

-  Aerosol Optics in KIM (Sunghye Baek, KIAPS)

-  Diagnosing and Improving Radiation and Cloud Hydrometeors in KIM 

(Yong- Cheol Jeong, KIAPS)

-  Opportunities and Challenges in Research- to- Operations (R2O): Case Studies in Physics Package Enhancements (Songyou Hong, NSF NCAR)

-  Uncertainty Quantification and Optimization of Precipitating Hydrometeor Parameters for Winter Precipitation in a Cloud Microphysics Scheme (Kyo- Sun Lim, KNU)

13:30∼14:50('80)

[세션5] 결합모델 및 연장중기 예측(Coupled Model and Extended- Range Prediction)

-  S2S Prediction via LS4P- Based Experiments with the Korean Integrated Model (Jaeyoung Song, KIAPS)

-  WW3 Coupling with KIM and NEMO:Development and Current Status

(Yong- Jae Han, KIAPS)

-  An Overview of the KIM Ensemble System for Medium-  to Extended- Range Forecasts (WonMoo Kim, KIAPS)

-  Improving S2S Prediction of ENSO- East Asia Teleconnection: A Dynamic- Statistical Model Approach (Seok- Woo Son, Seoul National University)

15:10∼16:30('80)

[세션6] 차세대모델 활용(Applications for Next- Generation Prediction Systems)

-  Current Status and Plans for Stochastic Representations of Model Uncertainties in the Korean Integrated Model (Ja- Young Hong, KIAPS)

-  Recent Progress in Representing Model Uncertainty in the IFS Ensemble (Sarah- Jane Lock, KIAPS)

-  An AI Approach for Estimating the Observation Impact on the KIM Forecast (Hyeon- Ju Jeon, KIAPS)

-  Development Status of AI- Based Precipitation Forecasting at KIAPS (Tae- Jin Oh, KIAPS) 

2025년 11월 12일(수)

10:00∼11:40('100)

[세션7] 관측 전처리(Observation Preprocessing)

-  Efforts to Improve Forecast Skill of the KIM through Enhanced Observation Utilization in KIAPS (Jeon- Ho Kang, KIAPS)

-  Reducing Pixel- Dependent Bias in GIIRS/FY- 4B for Improved NWP Forecasts (Hye- Sil Kim, KIAPS)

-  Convective- Scale Data Assimilation and Reanalysis at the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) (Dale Barker, CCRS)

-  Bias Correction for Satellite Data Assimilation using Articial Intelligence 

(Hyo- Jong Song, Myongji University)

-  Integrating Microwave Remote Sensing and Foundation Models for Hydrological Prediction (Hyunglok Kim, GIST)

13:30∼15:10('100)

[세션8] 자료동화(Data Assimilation)

-  Data Assimilation for Cross- scale Forecasting Systems at KIAPS (In- Hyuk Kwon, KIAPS)

-  Advancing Coupled Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, and Sea ice Data Assimilation at KIAPS (Yonghwan Kwon, KIAPS)

-  Towards a Fully Data Driven Forecasting Chain for NWP (Roland Potthast, DWD)

-  Current Status and Future Plans in the KMA Global Data Assimilation (Ji- Hyun Ha, KMA)

-  Development of Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation and Its Applications 

(Nakbin Choi, UNIST)



붙임2

2025 차세대수치예보모델개발사업단 국제 학술회의 사진


 


| 축사 |

(김승희 기상청 차장)


 

| 기념사진 |